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2016 Geelong Cup tips - 10/1 shot the horse to be on in Spring Carnival highlight

Damian Lane riding Lucques defeating Craig Williams riding Black Tomahawk

There’s nothing like racing to bring a horse up to peak fitness, and while some of Wednesday’s Geelong Cup (2400m) entrants will benefit from the run, one in particular is extremely fit and has the right form to win.

2016 Geelong Cup selection - LUCQUES (10/1, Betfred)

Matt Cumani’s import, Grey Lion, has been installed the $2.80 favourite and his having his first run in Australia.

While the son of Galileo has racked up four wins in Europe and must be respected, he has put in some shockers on Good and Fast ground and that has to be a concern considering the French Fast rating is probably closer to a Good 4 in Australia.

However, Geelong was rated a Good 4 on Tuesday and track should remain around that rating and provide a fair surface for all.

Newmarket-based trainer Charlie Appleby has two runners in the race, Qewy and Oceanographer, and considering Kerrin McEvoy gets the ride on Qewy and rode Scottish into 2nd place in the Caulfield Cup last Saturday, you would assume he’s the top chance from the stable.

Qewy is an out and out stayer and I’m just not sure he’ll be suited in the Geelong Cup with a couple of locals likely to set the speed.

Chris Waller also has European-import Kinema in the race and has scratched top weigh Who Shot Thebarman.

He’s a well-bred gelding that recorded two good wins over 2800m and 2414m last campaign – if Waller has him going well, he could be the knockout.

But above the imports and other locals, I have the Mathew Ellerton And Simon Zahra-prepared Lucques on top.

The five-year-old son of High Chaparral has some great form lines to follow and has had an ideal preparation to be running a strong 2400m on Wednesday.

At his fourth run this campaign, Lucques won the Sofitel Girls' Day Out Handicap (2500m) at Flemington, and defeated Black Tomahawk who lines up in opposition on Wednesday, as well as Authoritarian who has since won a 2400m BM70 at Bendigo and then the Moe Cup (2050m).

Lucques then finished 6th in the Group 3 the Bart Cummings (2500m) at the same track where they ran slower time (2:37.47) on Good track than Lucques did on a Soft 5 (2:36.27) the start before.

He finished in front of Almoonqith last start and was only one length from Vengeur Masque and both of those gallopers put in eye-catching runs in the Caulfield Cup when finishing 4th and 8th respectively.

That form looks extremely strong for a Geelong Cup, and the fact Lucques went quicker in his previous win suggests he’s going better than his last start effort.

Black Tomahawk has blinkers for the first time on Wednesday, and I’m anticipating he may try and lead.

Lucques is a natural on pace type, and with very little early speed among the rest of the field, this pair might get a soft lead and be able to gradually build momentum from the 1000m mark.

If that happens, it will take a massive effort for anything to run them down, but with Lucques still having more upside, I’m leaning toward him tackling Black Tomahawk early in the straight and going on to score.

Lucques won his only start at Geelong, looks suited dropping back 100m in trip and will get ideal conditions.

He won the Rain Lover Handicap (2500m) at his sixth run last campaign and comes into Wednesday’s event at his sixth run this time in.
At $14, he looks well over the odds and is a great each-way chance.

2016 Geelong Cup selection - LUCQUES (10/1, Betfred)


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2016 Geelong Cup tips - 10/1 shot the horse to be on in Spring Carnival highlight

There’s nothing like racing to bring a horse up to peak fitness, and while some of Wednesday’s Geelong Cup (2400m) entrants will benefit from the run, one in particular is extremely fit and has the right form to win.

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