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Wednesday's Australian horse racing bet of the day - A double score for Payne at Ballarat

  • Duke's form is being underestimated.
  • Confidence rating: 88%

Don’t underestimate Duke Of Nottingham who was terribly unlucky last start and now gets onto his home track over a suitable trip.

The Michelle Payne-trained gelding lines up in Race 5, the City of Ballarat BM70 Handicap (1600m), and ready to give this a shake with Payne also taking the ride.

He arguably should have won last start but after having the drop on the leaders in the perfect trailing position, apprentice Lucinda Dooodt was outridden when others whipped up around her and forced her back to near last. 

Duke Of Nottingham picked himself up again and started to charge down the outside, but the damage was done – a learning curve for young Doodt who will only improve with experiences like that!!

Although Duke Of Nottingham now goes up from BM64 grade to a BM70, this is not beyond him and the form from his last start has well and truly been franked. 

The winner, Playful Rosie, went on to defeat Hot Ruby, Skulduggery and Thunder Connection in a BM70 at Werribee.

Skullduggery was a dominant Caulfield winner the start prior, and Thunder Connection also won in BM70 grade before that run.

Jest For The Road was the other runner to finish in front of Duke Of Nottingham when he looked unlucky last time, and that galloper has been in sensational form.

In his past four runs this campaign, Jest For The Road has won two BM58 races, finished 2nd to Playful Rosie and then come out and scored a strong two-length win in a 1400m BM64.

So all in all, the form out of Duke Of Nottingham’s last race is truly up to BM70 grade, and as for Duke Of Nottingham himself, he should only improve at his second go over the mile.

With three runs over shorter trips, followed by a three-week break before contesting a 1400m and 1600m race, the son of Excellent Art should be at his absolute peak.

Payne doesn’t want to take any chances with him this time which is why she has jumped back aboard.

She knows the horse better than anyone else and will be sure to get the best out of him on Wednesday.

 Peaky Blinders was brilliant last start and has been installed as favourite, but that was 24 days ago and he’s likely to need the run unlike Duke Of Nottingham who won the last time he was given 20 days between runs.

A few others with claims also but proven form can’t be ignored and I think this horse should have won last time and still has more upside.

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Wednesday's Australian horse racing bet of the day - A double score for Payne at Ballarat

Don’t underestimate Duke Of Nottingham who was terribly unlucky last start and now gets onto his home track over a suitable trip.

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