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2019 Prix du Moulin tips – 9/2 shot to take it to the Max in Longchamp thriller

A view of the tents alongside the home straight at Pairs-Longchamp.

Our expert takes a look through the betting for this lucrative Group One at Longchamp on Sunday and provides readers with his betting selections.

Flat racing fans will get their fix of Group One action on Sunday at Longchamp, as the Paris venue stages the lucrative Prix du Moulin. Some truly great horses have conquered the mile and lifted this famous trophy, with the names of Soviet Star, Rock Of Gibraltar and Goldikova shining bright on the honours boards at Paris-Longchamp.

European raider haven’t enjoyed much success in the Prix du Moulin recently, with only Ribchester getting the better of his French rivals in the last six years. Yet, we find the betting dominated by runners based on our side of the Channel, with Kevin Condon’s Romanised sitting atop the market.

Strong finishes were only good enough to hand Romanised fourth-place in both the Lockinge and the Queen Anne Stakes at the start of the season. A drop in class brought around a return to winning ways in the Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh and last year’s surprise Irish Guineas king built on that run with an excellent victory in the Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le-Buffard Jacques le Marois last time out.

Condon’s stable star travelled beautifully throughout the race, picking off Shaman with a furlong to travel before seeing out the mile very well. While the bookmakers fancy a repeat performance from Romanised on Sunday, good, quick ground is key to his chances and the weather forecast in the Paris area may dampen Condon’s hopes of another Group One win.

Shaman ran nicely to finish second behind Romanised at Deauville, but he was visibly outclassed that day and will have to improve a marked amount to reverse the form. Line Of Duty returned to something like his best to finish a staying-on third. Softer ground around a turning track will improve his chances no-end, but he could find himself stuck in traffic after being drawn in stall two and may struggle for pace in the closing stages.

I usually prefer to side with a French runner in Group Ones in front of their own supporters, but, Shaman aside, the other home entrants hold little appeal. Olmedo’s future could lie over distances further than this. Obligate has something to prove after lacking finishing pace behind Laurens in the Prix Rothschild and Delaware, who carries the shortest price of all the French runners, is yet to test himself at Group One level.
Phoenix Of Spain remains one of my favourite horses in training, despite two largely underwhelming performances at Ascot and Goodwood. I was hoping Charlie Hills would have stepped his Irish Guineas winner up in trip by now, having seen him struggled on the front-end over a mile the last twice. A return to top form for this talented grey is certainly not out of the question, but I fear his front-running efforts may simply set the race up for CIRCUS MAXIMUS (9/2 Ladbrokes), who has proven himself to be one of the top milers on the circuit this term.

Many thought a path towards the St Leger may be on the cards for Circus Maximus, who looked a dour stayer when finishing sixth in the Derby earlier in the campaign. Aidan O’Brien, however, had other ideas, supplementing Circus Maximus into the St James’s Palace Stakes. 

Just over two weeks after that energy-sapping run in the Derby, Ryan Moore’s mount scored a superb victory at Royal Ascot, seeing off Too Darn Hot from the front before surviving a late charge from King Of Comedy to seal a maiden Group One win. Too Darn Hot managed to turn the tables on O’Brien’s colt at Goodwood, but he had to work much harder than expected to get his nose ahead of Circus Maximus and the runner-up lost nothing in defeat.

O’Brien then used Circus Maximus as a pace-setter in the Juddmonte International Stakes, with the intent of stretching Crystal Ocean to his fullest extent. The plan worked perfectly, as Japan came through to pip the favourite to the post, with Circus Maximus crossing the line four lengths behind his stablemate in seventh.

Circus Maximus’ form over a mile stacks up with anyone this term and a bit of juice in the Longchamp ground will only emphasise his stamina. From stall six, Ryan Moore should be able to ride the race as he likes and the 18-day turnaround between now and that run at York shouldn’t be too much for him to cope with.

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2019 Prix du Moulin tips – 9/2 shot to take it to the Max in Longchamp thriller

Our expert takes a look through the betting for this lucrative Group One at Longchamp on Sunday 8th September and provides readers with his betting selections.

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