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2018 July Cup Tips – 20/1 outsider could shock the Nation in Newmarket feature

Jonathan Vine 13 Jul 2018
Ryan Moore riding Sioux Nation to victory in the Norfolk Stakes on Day Three of Royal Ascot last year.

Our expert takes a look through the betting for the 2018 July Cup and provides readers with his tips for Newmarket on Saturday.

Newmarket’s summer festival his headlined by the historic sprint, the July Cup. First run back in the 1870’s, this scorching six-furlong spectacle has been won by some of the sport’s most famous names, with greats like Ormonde, Abernant, Diadem and Marwell featuring on the illustrious roll of honour.

Our expert has taken a look through the field of 14 set to line up in this year’s renewal of the July Cup and provided readers with his tips.

14/7/18 2:15pm Newmarket Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) 6f



US Navy Flag should take well to the drop in trip, but after spending the season being trained over a mile, it could take a run or two to adapt to this kind of race. Eqtidaar claimed a surprise victory in the Commonwealth Cup, but I have serious doubts as to whether the form of that race can be trusted, with only Sands Of Mali really running to their expected level.

Blue Point is the worthy favourite in this year’s race, having stormed to victory over Battaash in the Kings’ Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot. William Buick and Charlie Appleby have been in fantastic form all season and stepping up to six furlongs could bring about further improvement.

While Blue Point looks hard to oppose, favourites have only won 50% of the July Cup in the past 15 years and outsiders have also fared well in this Group One. Almost half of the winners and placers in the past decade carried odds of 12/1 or more, with the average price of a horse filling the places in that time period totalling a staggering 19.5/1.

This stat makes looking for an each-way punt seem the most appealing betting proposition and there are plenty of names that stand out. Brando is a consistent performer at this level and Invincible Army is much better than his Commonwealth Cup performance suggested. Sadly, after a golden highway appeared down the inside rail during the first day of the meeting, it seems they may have copped the worst side of the draw.

Lightly-raced four-year-old, Dreamfield was really impressive in the Wokingham, narrowly losing out after running a solo effort down the centre of the track. While John Gosden’s colt holds appeal, I’m going to take a punt on SIOUX NATION running a huge race.

Like many in the Commonwealth Cup, the favourite ran extremely poorly. Ryan Moore’s mount dragged himself out of the blocks and was eased down well before the line when it became clear he wasn’t going to drag himself into contention.

Sioux Nation is a Group One-winning juvenile, having followed his triumph in the Norfolk Stakes with a strong victory in the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes, comfortably beating two future Group One winners in the process. After losing out on his reappearance, Sioux Nation successfully carried a penalty into the winners’ enclosure on his second start, seeing off some decent horses with the minimum of fuss. 

Seamie Heffernan’s mount has plenty of experience running in Group One races and the large field here won’t phase him. The selection has run here at Newmarket in the past and ground conditions should be ideal.


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2018 July Cup Tips – 20/1 outsider could shock the Nation in Newmarket feature

Our expert takes a look through the betting for the 2018 July Cup and provides readers with his tips for Newmarket on Saturday 14th July.

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