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Ladbrokes go 5/4 on Cox Plate being Winx’s final race

Jonathan Vine 23 Oct 2018
Hugh Bowman salutes the crowd after winning the Cox Plate with Winx for the third time.

Ladbrokes announced today that they are offering odds of 5/4 on Winx being retired after running in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley on Saturday 27th October.

As the build-up to Saturday’s Cox Plate starts to increase in intensity, Matt Chapman caused a stir during Ladbrokes' press conference following the official draw. In an auditorium packed with passionate Winx supporters, Chapman claimed that Australia’s favourite daughter had only been beating “fairly modest horses” for some time now and challenged Winx to put on a show worthy of her reputation when she bids to win a historic fourth Cox Plate in the early hours of Saturday morning.

Those claims were derided down-under, but you cannot deny there is plenty of evidence to support Chapman’s claims – all of which you can listen to in the video embedded below.

There have been plenty of calls over the years for Winx to spread her wings and test her skills on a global level. Even her most ardent fans will surely want to know how their hero would stack up against the likes of Enable and Arrogate, who have ventured to far-flung corners of the globe to prove their quality over the past few years, while Winx has run roughshod through the mediocre middle-distance ranks on her own doorstep.

Winx is officially rated the best racehorse in the world at 130 by LONGINES, one pound ahead of Gun Runner and Poet’s Word, with Cracksman two back – for the time being. While that’s an astronomical feat, especially for a seven-year-old mare, only four of her Australian counterparts feature in the top 30 on LONGINES list. 

Trapeze Artist has never faced Winx and Redkirk Warrior left England with his reputation in tatters after flopping in both the Diamond Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup. Happy Clapper and Hartnell - the other two Aussie-based horse in the top 30 - have both been beaten by Winx on multiple occasions, but neither has been dominant in the past two years when Winx hasn’t been in the field, winning 45% and 17% of their respective races since the start of 2017.

Whether you feel she’s overrated, or you’re a fully paid-up passenger on the Winx express, claiming a fourth-straight Cox Plate would be an incredible achievement worthy world-wide acknowledgement.

Benbatl is the first European raider to venture to Moonee Valley to have a crack at the queen since Highland Reel’s failed attempt in 2015. Despite his victory in the Ladbrokes Stakes, or the fact that Saeed Bin Suroor’s colt saves his best performances for these international adventures, no-one is expecting him – or any of the other entrants – to cause an upset on Saturday. Ladbrokes list Winx as the 2/7 favourite to retain her crown, but whether she will return to win a fifth Cox Plate is a subject of great debate.

Eight is a ripe old age for any horse on the level, let alone for a perennial Group One performer. Some have suggested a fourth Cox Plate could be Winx’s swansong and race sponsors Ladbrokes have responded, offering 4/7 on Winx remaining in training and running at least once next year, while going 5/4 on Chris Waller’s mare not running at all during 2019.

Winx offers very little value in the standard betting for the Cox Plate, but there may be a profitable opportunity in Ladbrokes' winning distance market. The race sponsors go 11/8 on Winx winning by three lengths or more and the same price on the favourite claiming victory by less than three lengths. When you consider, in Winx 28-race winning run, she’s won by less than three lengths 64% of the time, 11/8 doesn’t look a terrible price in what could be Winx's last ever appearance.

*Ladbrokes Cox Plate Betting*

1m2f, Moonee Valley, This Saturday
2/7 Winx, 6 Benbatl, 16 Avilius, 16 Rostropovich, 16 Humidor, 33 D’argento, 33 Savvy Coup, 40 bar

Winx 2018 Cox Plate Winning Distance
11/8   Under 3 Lengths
11/8   3 Lengths Or Over

Will Winx run in 2019?
4/7     Winx runs at least once in 2019
5/4     Winx does not run in 2019

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Ladbrokes go 5/4 on Cox Plate being Winx’s final race

Ladbrokes announced today that they are offering odds of 5/4 on Winx being retired after running in the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley on Saturday 27th October.

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