Cheltenham Festival day one trends – Festival Tuesday trends tips

Cheltenham Trends day one tips. Trends selections for every race.Cheltenham Trends day one tips. Trends selections for every race.

We take a look over the key Cheltenham Festival day one trends for every race and highlights one from each contest which could go well judging on the statistics.

Former Aberdeen FC manager Ebbe Skovdahl once said: “Statistics are like mini-skirts .. they give you good ideas but hide the most important parts”. But looking at past trends can often throw up valuable clues to future outcomes and the Cheltenham Festival is no different to any other.

Most punters will probably already have settled on their first day picks without assessing the Chelteham Festival day one trends; but it could be worth taking a look at the past few years’ trends as an extra layer of assessment before parting with hard-earned cash.

1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f
2:10 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m
2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m1f
3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f
4:10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f
4:50 – Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 (5yo+ 0-145) 2m4f
5:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m6f

We have taken a look at the last twelve years’ Cheltenham Festival day one trends for every race and we highlight a runner who ticks the key boxes and could go well – at least according to the statistics.

1:30 – Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f

5 key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 winners were aged either 5 or 6;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won their previous start;
  • 7 of the last 12 winners were in the top three in the betting;
  • 5 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous Cheltenham start;
  • 2 of the last 12 winners were favourite or joint-favourite.

ABACADABRAS ticks four of the five key trends and could run a big race as trainer Gordon Elliott bids to get off to a flyer and regain the Champion Trainer crown he won in 2017 and 2018.

The six-year old won last time out in a Grade One at Leopardstown and his sole defeat to date over hurdles has come behind classy stablemate Envoi Allen.

He’s run here before, finishing fourth in last season’s Champion Bumper and he currently sits within the top-three of the betting although he’s unlikely to go off favourite for the race over either Asterion Forlonge or Shishkin.

On the Cheltenham Festival day one trends he should run a big race and the Davidoff gelding could go close.

Cheltenham Trends day one tips. Abacadabras is the Supreme Novices' Hurdle trends horse.

Cheltenham Trends day one tips. Abacadabras is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle trends horse.

2:10 – Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m

5 key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last twelve winners were aged 6 or 7;
  • 11 of the last twelve winners had at least one previous Cheltenham run;
  • 11 of the past twelve winners had at least three starts in the season;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners featured in the top three of the betting;
  • 6 of the last 12 winners were outright favourite in the betting.

NOTEBOOK could prove tough to beat and Henry de Bromhead’s charge can win this contest.

The seven-year old Samum gelding boasts previous form here having contested last season’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and he features at the head of the betting for this contest where he sits as the current race-favourite.

He’s had four starts this term and is unbeaten over fences, latterly winning the Irish Arkle. With defeats of main rivals Fakir D’oudairies and Cash Back also in the books he’ll likely prove a tough nut to crack.

2:50 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m1f

5 key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 132 or better;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9 years old;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least three previous Cheltenham starts;
  • 10 of the past 12 winners had had at least three starts in the season;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 9lbs and 11st 8lbs.

WHO DARES WINS ticks all five Cheltenham Festival day one trends and Alan King’s charge could give a good account.

The eight-year old won last time out at Kempton, winning a Grade Two contest on his fifth start of the season and he’ll be making his sixth start at Cheltenham when he turns out in the first big handicap of the Festival.

Rated 147 he’ll be saddled with 11 stone dead at the weights and the Jeremy gelding can post a big run if this start doesn’t come too soon after his Kempton success.

Cheltenham Trends day one tips. Who Dares Wins tops the Ultima Chase trends.

Cheltenham Trends day one tips. Who Dares Wins tops the Ultima Chase trends.

3:30 – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m½f

5 key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 winners had won or placed in their previous start;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had had at least two previous runs in the season;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least a Grade One prior to Cheltenham;
  • 10 of the past 12 winners had at least one previous Cheltenham start;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between six and eight years old.

Willie Mullins could collect another Champion Hurdle title with CILAOS EMERY has been supplemented for the race having hacked up in a Grade Three last time on his return to hurdling.

The eight-year old Califet gelding finished fifth to Labaik in the 2017 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle before winning a Grade One of his own with a defeat of Melon at Punchestown.

With four starts under his belt this term – three over fences – he ticks all five key trends for the day’s feature Grade One and he ought to go close in an open renewal of the Champion Hurdle.

4:10 – Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Registered As The David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f

5 key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 runners had run at least twice over the trip;
  • 9 of the past 12 winners had previously won a Graded race;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between five and seven years old;
  • 9 of the past 12 winners had won on their previous start before Cheltenham;
  • 7 of the last 12 winners had had at least one previous Cheltenham outing.

All the attention on the race will focus on the Benie Des Dieux versus Honeysuckle showdown; but STORMY IRELAND ticks the trends boxes and Willie Mullins’ second string is unlikely to be there simply to make up the numbers.

The six-year old Motivator mare has run twice at Cheltenham, finishing runner-up to Roksana in this race twelve months ago after the fall of Benie Des Dieux who looked set to score.

She’s won all three starts this term, scoring in Grade Three company the last twice. She posted an impressive success when last seen out at Naas in the Limestone Lad Hurdle where she struck by six lengths.

The front two in the betting could have this between them; but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her in the mix and she can improve further to give a good account.

Cheltenham Trends day one tips. Can Stormy Ireland uphold the Mares' Hurdle trends?

Cheltenham Trends day one tips. Can Stormy Ireland uphold the Mares’ Hurdle trends?

4:50 – Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 (5yo+ 0-145) 2m4f

5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had had at least three runs in the season;
  • 10 of the past 12 winners had at least one previous Cheltenham outing;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 11lbs and 11st 8lbs;
  • 10 of the past 12 winners were aged between five and seven years old;
  • 7 of the last 12 winners came from the top three in the betting.

IMPERIAL AURA ticks all five of the Cheltenham Festival day one trends and Kim Bailey should put on a bold show.

The seven-year old Kalanisi gelding has had four starts this term of which two have come here; he latterly chased home Simply The Betts over course and distance in January where he was beaten just over one length.

Racing off a mark off 143 for this outing he should give another good account from his 11st 5lbs weight burden in a competitive contest and he can make his presence felt.

5:30 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m6f

5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had had at least three previous runs over fences;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had had at least four runs in the season;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between six and eight years old;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham at least once before;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won at least once in the season.

WIllie Mullins’ CAREFULLY SELECTED ticks all five key trends boxes and the eight-year old Well Chosen gelding could prove tough to beat.

3-3 over fences this term, his latest win came in a Grade Three contest at Naas where he beat Forza Milan by four lengths; he had beaten City Island the time before in a Grade Three at Punchestown and his form coming into the race looks very strong.

He also boasts previous Cheltenham form having finished runner-up to Relegate in the 2018 Champion Bumper here. Likely to continue to improve he could cap an excellent opening day for the County Carlow handler who has won this race twice previously.