Another Four meetings go to post across the UK on Friday, 21st October, including the opening meeting of the season at Cheltenham. Our Lucky 15 includes a couple of picks at Cheltenham, plus one each from Doncaster and Newbury.
Our expert tipster has produced their best bets across the cards, which make up our advised Frisday Lucky 15.
Odds correct at time of posting – 4:55pm Thursday 20th October
Lively Citizen (1.35 Cheltenham) – 8/1
It’s hard to believe that LIVELY CITIZEN isn’t higher in the betting for this, considering his runner-up performance in the Imperial Cup is some of the best form on offer here. His excellent record here only further enhances our confidence he has a big chance of landing this.
He has run well on the back of a break before so that won’t be an issue, and his record here reads 121P, and he was only pulled up after the jockey’s saddle slipped badly. All three of his wins have come over this trip, and young jockey Archie Bellamy has been on board for two of those, so he’s a solid enough booking in this.
Trainer DJ Jeffreys doesn’t have a huge number of horses in his yard, but his record at Cheltenham is impressive. He’s only sent 15 horses here, but three have won, as well as one finishing second and another coming in third. To a £1 level stake, he’s +£29.50, which shows this is comfortably the best record he has at any racecourse. Lively Citizen’s excellent record here gives him an excellent chance of improving that record on Friday.
Picual (2.35 Newbury) – 5/1
Misty Dancer will be a tough nut to crack in her bid for a hat-trick, but she’s been raised 5lb for her last win and she might struggle to give weight away to Sir Michael Stoute’s PICUAL.
If you put a line through her reappearance run when she clearly needed the run, she’s run well in all three other runs this season. After that disappointing effort at Newmarket, she went and won at Nottingham in a race that has been working out well. The runner-up Wynter Wildes has won a class 3 since and is now rated 82, and the third Dal Mallart won her next two. They all finished well clear of Smiling Jayne, who was only a length behind Misty Dancer last month.
She then finished second behind Youthful King, who went and placed in a good handicap at Goodwood next time out. Her most recent appearance came at Kempton, where she wasn’t beaten far in a class 3. The drop back into class 4 company and receiving weight from her main rival can be enough to see her back in the winners enclosure.
Havana Blue (2.55 Doncaster) – 9/2
There’s plenty of newcomers here who could be anything (notably Hosana Power and Florida), but of those with experience it could pay to side with HAVANA BLUE.
Clive Cox’s colt only found one too good at Salisbury, where he was just touched off by Secret Solace. Only four horses from that race have come out since, with two of those placing – Greek Order (3rd) finished a neck behind Regal Honour, and Ribal (5th) placed behind a couple of Godolphin runners in a good-looking class 2.
Jockey William Buick can hardly do anything wrong at the moment, and with a 35% strike-rate (7 winners from 20 rides) at Doncaster, we couldn’t ask for a better jockey booking. He can steer Havana Blue to victory in a race that looks like it could throw up plenty of future winners.
On Springs (4.30 Cheltenham) – 14/1
Since switching to fences, Ben Pauling’s ON SPRINGS has been a model of consistency and this looks a good opportunity to gain a fourth successive win.
His overall record over fences reads 2412111 (4-7), and the step up in trip shouldn’t be an issue considering he kept on well in his last race, when beating El Paso Wood by over five lengths. That runner has since gone out and won his next two races, so the form looks impressive.
Jockey Beau Morgan has a fantastic record over fences – from his seven rides over fences, he’s won four of them. That’s a huge boost to our selections chances, and with On Springs in such good form we’re expecting a top three finish at a minimum!
Safer Gambling Week runs from 17-23 October and is led by the gambling industry. The aim is to create conversations with customers, staff and the wider public about safer gambling whilst driving awareness of:
- How to gamble more safely
- Tools available to help people gamble safely all year round
- Sources of further advice and support