Another cracking day of racing awaits on Saturday, with plenty of top-class action across the cards at Sandown, Musselburgh, Leopardstown and Wetherby. ITV are showing a whopping TEN of the key races across the four cards on Saturday 4th February, and our racing editor Tom Aldridge has picked out a tip for each of the Saturday ITV races!
Below, we talk you through our selections for all ten ITV races on Saturday afternoon, including our tip for the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase. Check out who he’s siding with each race, including some strong fancies at Sandown, plus how he can’t see Galopin Des Champs slipping up in the Irish Gold Cup.
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Twinjets (1.10 Sandown) – Daily Double (Leg 1)
The first race on ITV can go the way of TWINJETS, who has been impressive in winning his last two, including a 9 lengths defeat of Twin Power last time out.
He’s 8lb higher than Twin Power now but he seems to be getting better with each run and should be able to handle that. It’s telling that Paul Nicholls stable jockey Harry Cobden has opted to stay on board Twinjets, rather than ride Twin Power, and I’m confident he’s making the right choice.
I Shut That D’Or seemed to appreciate the step up in trip when causing a 50/1 upset last month, but he’ll struggle to give 10lb to Twin Power, who looks the bigger danger to the selection. Neither should be able to cope with Twinjets though, who seems to have got the hang of things over hurdles and looks a nice prospect for Milton Harris.
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Notlongtillmay (1.28 Musselburgh) – Top Treble (Leg 1)
Just the six runners but this is a cracking race to kick off the Musselburgh card. The one I’ve come down on is NOTLONGTILLMAY, who is 2/2 over fences and ran out a comfortable winner over C&D last time out.
He jumped well throughout and the rest couldn’t stay with him, and he won as he liked. The official winning distance was 16 lengths but he was eased down and if pushed to the line that would have been much further. He’s been raised 10lb in the ratings for that win but he should be able to handle that.
Drumbear comes over from Ireland and will be a threat, as will the dropping in class Half Shot, but I’m confident Notlongtillmay has a bright future ahead over fences and am backing him to make it 3/3 in his chase career with another win here.
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Frero Banbou (1.45 Sandown) – E/W Lucky 15
Dolos has had this race named after him, having won three of the last four renewals (2nd in the other one too) but he’s a 10YO now and I feel this may be beyond him. Last year’s runner-up FRERO BANBOU looks to have an excellent chance of reversing the form this time around.
He was just too far off the pace last year but still did remarkably well to finish second, given he was held up throughout and picked off all the runners except the eventual winner Dolos. He’s 5lb better off with that rival now and I expect him to reverse that form.
Frero Banbou has finished in the top three on all three previous visits to Sandown, including a third here last month and he’s a cracking E/W bet here. I’m confident he’s up to winning this but at the odds I’ll take the insurance of backing him E/W.
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The Wolf (2.08 Musselburgh)
Last year’s winner Captain Cattistock is back to try and retain his crown but no horse has won back-to-back renewals of the race, and I’m willing to take him on with last years runner-up THE WOLF.
That was his first effort over this trip and he was only ¾ length off the winner that day, and is now 8lb better off with Captain Cattistock this time around (5lb if you take into account jockey’s claim). He followed that performance up with a solid seventh in the Scottish Grand National, proving his stamina and this will be a welcome step back up in trip.
He’s been dropped 3lb following his most recent race, when eighth behind Rapper at Cheltenham last month, putting him on his lowest mark for almost two years. With the Olly Murphy yard in red-hot form of late, I’m hopeful The Wolf will go well at a double-figure price and think he’s well worth an E/W bet.
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Gerri Colombe (2.20 Sandown) – NAP
The fact Gordon Elliott has sent GERRI COLOMBE over for this rather than go to the DRF is a clue in itself and I think he’ll be far too good in here. The ground may be better than he’s used to, but he should have too much quality to win this.
Currently 2/2 over fences, including an impressive win in the Grade 1 Faugheen Novice Chase last time out, which is by far the best form on offer. Jordan Gainford was on board for that win and travels over purely for this ride, so you’d like to think it would be a worthwhile trip!
Nicky Henderson has won four of the last ten renewals of this and has Balco Coastal in here, but I think the bigger danger could come from Thunder Rock, who finished behind Monmiral last time out but that was a messy race and I expect this course to suit him more. But even so, he would have to put in a special performance to beat Gerri Colombe, who is the class act in the field and I can’t see the ground stopping him landing a second Grade 1 of the season.
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Ballygriffin Cottage (2.40 Wetherby) – Top Treble (Leg 2)
This looks to be between BALLYGRIFFIN COTTAGE and City Chief, and it’s the former I’m siding with. He cruised to victory on chase debut and looks to have a serious future ahead of him.
He took to fences impressively well, with his jumping almost foot perfect throughout on that chase debut, and he won without really being pushed for a proper effort. That is the best piece of form on offer here and he’s going to go off a deserved favourite.
City Chief won nicely last time out but was previously soundly beaten by Gelino Bello, who has failed to boost the form since. The solid option is Ballygriffin Cottage, who should see his odds shorten for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase with a win here.
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Storm Nelson (2.55 Sandown) – E/W Lucky 15
I’m struggling to see why STORM NELSON is a double-figure price for this. Sandy Thomson’s 10YO has won both races this season, including beating the market leader Flight Deck on seasonal reappearance.
He’s only 1lb worse off at the ratings with Flight Deck this time, which shouldn’t be too much of an issue, and doesn’t explain why he’s over three times the odds as the favourite! He followed that win with a comfortable six length victory at Ayr last month, so comes here 2/2 for the season and will fancy his chances of continuing his good form.
Ryan Mania remains on board and has ridden one winner from two previous rides at Sandown, so I’m pleased to see him come down for the ride. Older horses don’t have the greatest record in this race, but I can’t ignore the price of Storm Nelson here – he has to be included in the E/W lucky 15 with some bookies (SkyBet, William Hill) offering five places.
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Galopin Des Champs (3.05 Leopardstown) – Top Treble (Leg 3)
I’ll keep this one short and sweet, GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is a monster of a horse and should win this comfortably.
The ante-post Gold Cup favourite returned this season with an impressive 13 length victory in the John Durkan Chase and looked every bit a future Gold Cup winner. He steps up in trip to 3m here but has previously won over this trip over hurdles, so stamina will not be a problem.
I think Fury Road is a good option to chase home Galopin Des Champs and would be the E/W value play in the race. But this is all about GDC, and I cannot wait to see him line up at the Festival in March, hopefully in top form with a facile win here!
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Nayati (3.16 Musselburgh) – E/W Lucky 15
Grivetana’s runner-up effort to First Street at Newbury makes for good reading, but she was comfortably beaten next time out and I’m struggling to see why she’s currently favourite for this. I’d much rather side with NAYATI, who won well over C&D last time out in a race that is working out well.
Of the three horses to have come out of that race and ran since, two of them have won – Thereisnodoubt and Homme Public. They were both comfortably beaten by the selection that day and He’s been raised 3lb for that win but I can’t see that being enough to stop him going in again.
The runner-up that day Collingham could be a threat, as could recent Wetherby scorer Lebowski, but I’m confident champion jockey Brian Hughes can steer Nayati to another victory and continue his good form this season.
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Eva’s Oskar (3.30 Sandown)
Tim Vaughan and Alan Johns teamed up to win this last year with Le Milos, and I’m hoping they can do the business again with EVA’S OSKAR.
Last seen winning a Premier Handicap at Cheltenham in December, where he stayed on strongly to win and has been raised 3lb for doing so. He takes a slight drop in class and trip here, which will help his cause.
Rapper will be the big danger after his impressive victory at Cheltenham last month, but I’m willing to take him on and hope last year’s winning trainer/jockey combo can work their magic again with Eva’s Oskar.
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