Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Runner-By-Runner Preview – Check Out Our In-Depth Look At France’s Feature Race
2021 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Runner-By Runner Preview
France’s feature race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, takes place at Longchamp on Sunday. The race’s recent roll of honour includes the likes of Sea The Stars, Treve and Enable, and this year’s renewal has the potential to unearth another Arc superstar. In anticipation of what promises to be an unmissable renewal of the richest race in Europe, our expert has produced their in-depth Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-by-runner preview, which includes a big race verdict and predicted 1-2-3.
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (1m4f), 3:05pm Longchamp, Sunday October 3rd
1. TORQUATOR TASSO (T: Marcel Weiss, J: Rene Piechulek)
Finished second to last year’s Arc runner-up In Swoop in the 2020 German Derby. Steadily progressive this year, coming into this on the back of a Group 1 win at Baden-Baden. Chances will increase with further rain and not completely exposed but this is by far the toughest test of his career and the draw could have been kinder than stall 12.
2. DEEP BOND (T: Ryuji Okubo, J: Mickael Barzalona)
Classy Japanese stayer who made all in the Prix Foy over track and trip on trials day. Expect him to be ridden prominently again from stall 5, and testing ground could bring his stamina into play. Wouldn’t be discounted for each-way purposes but it’s tough to see not a couple of these rivals being too classy.
3. BROOME (T: Aidan O’Brien, J: Yutaka Take)
Admirable globetrotter for connections, finishing first or second in 12 of his 19 starts to date. Gained a much-deserved first Group 1 victory in the Prix de Saint-Cloud earlier this season but behind Adayar and Deep Bond the last twice and should find this too demanding.
4. TARNAWA (T: Dermot Weld, J: Christophe Soumillon)
Very smart mare who took the Prix de l’Opera on this card last year; followed that up with a Breeders’ Cup win. Far from disgraced when second to St Mark’s Basilica in the 1m2f Irish Champions Stakes last month, where she would arguably have finished even closer but for late interference. Going back up to 1m4f should suit on that showing and she has been trained with this race solely in mind.
5. LOVE (T: Aidan O’Brien, J: Frankie Dettori)
Enjoyed an exceptional 3yo campaign and was the long-term ante-post favourite for this before injury curtailed her season. Kicked off 2021 with a gutsy Prince Of Wales’s Stakes win, but she is 0-3 since – failing to take advantage of the drop-in grade at the Curragh last time. Top pilot booked and definite claims on her best form but a deluge wouldn’t be appreciated.
6. RAABIHAH (T: Jean-Claude Rouget, J: Cristian Demuro)
Not unfancied for this last year when she was beaten just over 4l into fifth. Hit the crossbar on each of her three starts in 2021 before getting her head back in front in the Group 2 Prix de Pomone at Deauville last time. That win will have done her confidence the world of good but a career-best is needed to trouble the market principles and stall 15 makes life tough.
7. CHRONO GENESIS (T: Takashi Saito, J: Oisin Murphy)
Bonafide Group 1 mare who was just a neck behind Mishriff in the Dubai Sheema Classic back in March. Has been seen just the once since, showing an electric turn of foot to land the Takarazuka Kinen in June. Oisin Murphy now gets aboard for the first time, but the draw has been unkind in stall 14 and although a ‘yielding’ winner in Japan, these conditions pose a far bigger question.
8. MOJO STAR (T: Richard Hannon, J: Rossa Ryan)
Took his form to a new level when second to Adayar in the Derby and belatedly broke his maiden tag when landing a Newbury maiden in August. Subsequent second to Hurricane Lane in the St Leger produced a career-best RPR figure and he shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the forecast rain. Needs more to reverse form with the Godolphin pair, however.
9. BABY RIDER (T: Pascal Bary, J: Ioritz Mendizabal)
Gained back-to-back wins at Saint-Cloud earlier this year – the most recent success coming in a Group 2 – but had his limitations firmly exposed in top Group 1’s afterwards. Benefitted from the drop back in grade when runner-up to Bubble Gift in the Prix Niel last month, but looks opposable back in this company, particularly with a wide draw no help.
10. ADAYAR (T: Charlie Appleby, J: William Buick)
Took his form to a new level when demolishing the Derby field back in June; Mojo Star second, Hurricane Lane third. Proved that effort to be no fluke when landing the King George at Ascot afterwards. Injury niggle since has kept him off the track but presumably A1 now (William Buick chooses ahead of Hurricane Lane) and he won’t have any issues with the forecast rain – double-figure stall a more obvious threat though.
11. HURRICANE LANE (T: Charlie Appleby, J: James Doyle)
Very smart colt whose sole defeat from seven career starts came when third in the Derby. Probably can have that run upgraded considering that he lost both fore shoes and a facile Grand Prix de Paris win proves his ability to handle testing ground. Holds Mojo Star on their recent St Leger running but slightly concerning that William Buick favours Adayar and that St Leger victory came just 22 days ago.
12. SEALIWAY (T: Cedric Rossi, J: Franck Blondel)
Very smart 2yo who laughed at his rivals in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on this card last year. Not really kicked on as expected at 3, albeit has had just the three starts – most recently when second to St Mark’s Basilica in the Prix du Jockey Club. Should love the ground but the double-figure stall, near four-month absence and stamina concerns all make him very difficult to fancy.
13. ALENQUER (T: William Haggas, J: Tom Marquand)
Had Adayar behind when landing the Group 3 Classic Trial at Sandown in April. Supplemented that in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot – a victory which showed his proficiency for very testing ground conditions. Held in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris and Juddmonte International since however, which would suggest that he is a level below the very best 3yo’s. Needs the return to this trip/ground to bring about significant improvement.
14. BUBBLE GIFT (T: Mikel Delzangles, J: Gerald Mosse)
Put up a clear career-best performance when landing the Prix Niel on trials day here last month; Baby Rider second. That race hasn’t historically proven the best Arc trial in recent years, however, with Rail Link (2006) the last horse to complete the double, and this year’s renewal didn’t look a vintage one. Has almost 10l to make up with Hurricane Lane on their running in the Grand Prix de Paris.
15. SNOWFALL (T: Aidan O’Brien, J: Ryan Moore)
Fairly modest juvenile who has improved out of all recognition at 3, winning by a record-breaking 16l margin in the Oaks. Added further Group 1 wins in the Irish Oaks and Yorkshire Oaks before being turned over at odds of 1/5 in the Prix Vermeille on trials day. That run was surely too bad to be true, however, and she is the sole 3yo filly representative – who have enjoyed notable success in this race in recent years.
Big Race Verdict
A fascinating renewal of the Arc in prospect here, the battle of the Godolphin pair providing an interesting caveat. William Buick’s presence on Adayar is notable and he is fresher – albeit through injury rather than design – than Hurricane Lane, who is coming into this on the back of a tough season. The horse that has arguably been best campaigned all season, however, is TARNAWA – who provided her connections with big wins both on this card, and at the Breeders’ Cup last year. She has raced just twice in 2021, building on a facile Leopardstown Group 3 win when runner-up to the incredible St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champions Stakes. Going back up to 1m4f looks sure to suit on that evidence, and she can break the mare’s hoodoo by claiming the 2021 Arc. Snowfall also represents the females and cannot be discounted, with her latest run in the Prix Vermeille surely too bad to be true.