Sunday’s 4,484/1 Lucky 15 – Our UK Racing Best Bets On July 17
There is plenty of action to enjoy on Sunday and our 4,484/1 Lucky 15 top tips go around the grounds. All four come from separate tracks: Stratford, Redcar, Tipperary and the Curragh.
Atlantic Storm (1.30 Stratford)
There is a bizarre price discrepancy in this handicap over the jumps at Stratford. ATLANTIC STORM is a must back as a result.
Trained by Rob Summers, a handler with a long history of sending a small number of runners from his base in the West Midlands, the ten-year-old has run very consistently in 2022, with form figures of 2213. He has not been involved in a field greater than eight in that time, but that should not count against him in another small-field affair here.
He is effectively 9lb out the handicap here and there is a 10lb swing with Larch Hill from their meeting over course and distance at the end of June. However, he had six lengths in hand byt the line, while he has effectively improved gradually with every start.
He also travelled notably strongly last time out, so while the conditions of the race initially seem to be against him, this is not the strongest contest and he races off a featherweight. None of his rivals above him in the market appear especially well-treated.
Variety Island (3.15 Redcar)
With 12 runners in the field, this is one of the more competitive races on the day. It has ensured there is plenty of each-way value.
The one to side with may be VARIETY ISLAND who has pieces of form which could make his mark of 59 look very gentle. Though his two best performances in terms of placings have come on the all-weather at Newcastle, he is clearly adept enough on turf and trainer Simon Whitaker continues to campaign him there.
Three of his five runs this term have been solid: his third on reappearance at Doncaster off 65, an eighth of 19 next time out at Thirsk off the same mark, in which he was beaten fewer than three lengths, and when fourth at that latter venue off 62, beaten under two lengths.
He was disappointing last time at Ripon, but he ran very free that day and ran out of room late on. At some stage, he will likely take advantage of his declining mark and it could be today.
Fancy Foundations (4.41 Tipperary)
In this small field, it is worth chancing that class can come to the fore as FANCY FOUNDATIONS should be at least 7lb clear of these if near his best.
7lb is the margin between he and the second highest-rated, Fest Deiz, in this field. Yet a look back at his first two chase starts, in which he won at Down Royal and ligo in May and September 2021, suggests he has the ability to rank higher than a mark of 133.
There is no doubt he has found life tougher since and he pulled up on his handicap debut in April. However, that was in a very competitive race at the Punchestown Festival, while unseasonably soft ground almost certainly did not help on his first summer run back over hurdles at Listowel.
His profile suggests these months are where he could really make hay and he is capable of beating these under Jack Kennedy.
Are We Dreaming (5.00 Curragh)
ARE WE DREAMING heads the competition for this 5f handicap. He has only raced four times, but form of 3221 looks even better with context.
His first three runs in maidens all came in fierce enough races, as is often the case in Ireland where there are fewer fixtures. Nevertheless, he acquitted himself well to place on each occasion.
As it transpires, he was probably always being run over the wrong trip. That trio of races were over 7f, 6½f and 7f respectively. A drop back to the shortest distance of 5f worked wonders, as he shed his maiden tag in fine style at Bellewstown at the start of this month.
That was also in a first-time visor, which is retained and a mark of 74 is not overly harsh on what he has shown. He should have every chance of winning on his handicap bow.