2019 Shergar Cup tips – Key stats and trends to help you pocket some profit at Ascot
We’ve taken a look through the last five editions of the Shergar Cup and highlighted some key statistics that could help you back some winners at Ascot on Saturday 10th August.
Since it’s inception, the Shergar Cup has been a hugely popular event with flat racing fans. Unlike any other competition on the calendar, jockeys compete as part of a team, with a trio of jockey’s representing Great Britain and Ireland, Europe, the Rest Of The World and the Girls to see who will end the afternoon with the bragging rights, and their hands on the Shergar Cup trophy.
The fields for Saturday’s races may not yet be finalised, but that doesn’t mean we can’t look forward to the 2019 renewal and highlight certain trends to look out for. We’ve taken a much closer look at the last five Shergar Cups and come up with some vital statistics.
Shergar Cup Key Stats
Teams Tightly Matched
In the last five years, all four of the Shergar Cup teams have tasted victory, with only the Girls team winning twice in that time period. There’s also very little between them purely in terms of winners over the past five years, with GB&Ire and the Girls winning eight races apiece, one more than the tally’s reached by Europe and the Rest Of The World.William Hill currently have Great Britain and Ireland as the 9/4 favourites to win the 2019 Shergar Cup. The market back-markers are the Rest Of The World, who currently carry odds of 3/1, so even the bookies find it hard to separate the four teams at the Shergar Cup.
One Trainer To Watch
ANDREW BALDING enjoyed a fantastic time at the Shergar Cup last year, winning three of the six races on the 2018 card. Although those are his only winners at the event since the start of 2014, Balding’s horses have always been a threat, with his name featuring in the placing on eleven occasions.
Balding currently has ten horses entered at Ascot on Saturday, at least one in each of the six races. His best chance of winner this year looks to be in the Classic – a race Balding saddled the winner in last year and the runner-up the year before – where NEVER DO NOTHING (7/1 William Hill) bids to continue his encouraging seasonal form.
One Jockey To Jump On
Last season, after years of falling agonisingly short, HAYLEY TURNER finally lifted the Silver Saddle – the prize awarded to the highest points-scorer during that year’s Shergar Cup. Turner guided Via Serendipity to victory in the Challenge, while also riding her way into the places in three of the surrounding races.
Turner became the first female jockey in over three decades to ride a Royal winner earlier in the summer and she will return to Ascot looking to continue her excellent Shergar Cup record. Any horse ridden by Hayley Turner should warrant your attention.
Back The Fancied Horses
Whether it’s because the races are so competitive and the runners so tightly-matched, but horses carrying double-figure prices have enjoyed very little success at the Shergar Cup. In the past five years, 24 of the 30 races have been won by a horse carrying a price of 9/1 or lower.
Only 22 horses have managed to carry double-figure odds into any of the top three places, meaning 75% of the placed horses in the last five Shergar Cups have carried a single-figure price. A damning statistic for those punters who, like me, prefer to find value in outsiders.
Don’t Go Low
In 2014, there didn’t seem to be any particular track bias, with winners and placers spread evenly across this historic track. However, in the four years since, horses drawn in the lowest four stalls have an exceptionally poor strike rate in all six of the Shergar Cup races.
20 of the last 24 winners were drawn in stall five or higher, with only 30% of the placed horses in that time coming out of stalls one, two, three or four. So, when it comes to the Shergar Cup, a low draw is far from ideal.
Older sprinters in the Dash
The opening race on Saturday’s card is the five-furlong Dash, a thrilling way to kick off proceedings. While the Dash may be open to three and four-year-olds, older horses have dominated their younger rivals in Saturday’s opener.
Tis Marvellous may have struck a blow for four-year-old’s last season, but 13 of the other 14 placed horses in the past five years have been aged five or older. Three-year-olds haven’t caught a solitary place!
Go foreign in the Stayers
I know the colours worn by the horses don’t necessarily denote the country of their’s, or their trainer’s, birth, but it’s quite interesting to note that Great Britain and Ireland have a terrible record in the Stayers. Not a single runner baring the green silks of GB&I have even managed to run their way into the places. I wonder if that trend will continue in 2019?
Four-year-olds up to the Challenge
Younger horses may struggle against the older sprinters in the Dash, but that’s a different story in the 12-furlong Shergar Cup Challenge. Two of the last five winners of the Challenge were four-years-old. Seven of the 15 placed horses were of that age too, and all of the first four horses past the post in last year’s renewal were all four years of age.
Classy horses to the fore in the Mile
Horses rated between 0 and 100 are free to enter the Shergar Cup Mile and it’s those at the head of the ratings that tend to come out on top. Four of the last five winners were rated 96 or above, with 12 of the 15 placed horses since 2014 coming into the race with a mark of 95 or more.
Lower weights in the Classic
Berkshire Blue ran a blinder to carry 9-10 to victory in last year’s Classic. However, his victory goes against the recent trend of the race. 10 of the last 15 placers in the Classic were rated between 82 and 88, with even 78-rated Shell Bay managing to get the better of some high-quality three-year-olds in 2015.
Momentum in the Sprint
A win can boost the confidence of any jockey and it pays to back jockey’s in the Shergar Cup Sprint who have tasted victory earlier in the afternoon. Joao Moreira, Fran Berry, Thierry Jarnet and Jamie Spencer – the four most recent winners of the Sprint – had all ridden a winner in at least one of the five proceeding races.