Thursday’s racing tips – 5/2 NAP to bounce back from Goodwood flop at Lingfield
Our expert takes a look through all of Thursday’s races and selects a strong challenger in a handicap at Lingfield as his NAP of the day with Coral.
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6:50pm Lingfield Sky Sports Racing On Virgin 535 Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3) 1m2f
Lady Mascara has progressed nicely over recent runs, claiming a deserved victory at Brighton last time out. While ground conditions and the trip will certainly suit, this is a big step up in quality and I’d be surprised if James Fanshawe’s filly was able to cope.
Dubai Discovery is an interesting handicap debutante, having run nicely for third behind Sweet Promise – who herself placed third in a Listed contest on French soil last time out – at Wolverhampton. Saeed Bin Suroor’s charge could be well-treated off 76, but I think top-weight NEAROOZ could be very hard to beat, despite a poor performance at Glorious Goodwood the last day.
On the back of a smart novice triumph in April, Roger Varian’s filly finished second in two strong three-year-old handicaps. First, finishing second to Layaleena – and ahead of Duneflower – in a classy race at Nottingham, before losing out by just half-a-length to Ocala, where Jack Mitchell’s mount had to recover after running into traffic at a crucial stage.
An outing at Glorious Goodwood followed and Nearooz was backed into favouritism for the fillies’ handicap on Sussex Stakes day. Once again, Varian watched his filly get squeezed out as the runners ahead of her started to make their move. This time, Nearooz couldn’t recover well enough to contend, trailing over the line near the rear of the field.
When he realised the ghost was up, Andrea Atzeni nursed his mount home, barely touching Nearooz over the final two furlongs. Goodwood can be a very difficult track for newcomers to contend with anyway, so returning to a smaller field, around a more conventional track, should be suitable.Two runs ago, Nearooz clocked an RPR of 92 off a mark just two-pounds lower than this. Of her rivals here, only Hallalulu has been able to reach an RPR in the 80s and she hasn’t claimed victory since winning off an official mark some 12-pounds lower than her current rating last summer. This is a significant drop in grade for Nearooz and I’d be disappointed if her class didn’t come to the fore.