Coral-Eclipse Trends – Who do the stats suggest will come out on top?

The Coral-Eclipse is the feature race on offer this weekend, with six runners bidding for glory in the Group 1 at Sandown. The betting suggests it could be a two horse race between French Derby winner Vadeni and Irish 2000 Guineas winner Native Trail – but do the trends point to a different winner? Find out below ↓

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Age

Four of the last seven winners were three-year-olds, which supports the two at the head of the betting – Vadeni and Native Trail.

Just two four-year-olds have won the race in the last ten years – Nathaniel (2012) and Ulysses (2017). Both Bay Bridge and Alenquer will hope to buck that trend this year.

There hasn’t been a six-year-old winner of the race since the first race way back in 1886, won by Bendigo. Not a promising stat for supporters of the sole six-year-old in the line up this year – Lord North.

Distance

Only two horses have won this race without already winning at the distance before – Nathaniel (2012) and Enable (2019). That doesn’t bode well for Native Trail, but he’s bred to relish the step up in trip and is an extraordinary horse, so we certainly wouldn’t put it past him!

Rating

Nine of the past thirteen winners have been rated 120+, so it certainly pays to be highly rated! Five of the thirteen were rated 126, but none of the horses in this years renewal have a rating that high. Mishriff (125) has the highest rating, but four of the others have a rating over 120. Lord North is the only runner to have a rating below 120.

Class/Form

This century, eighteen of the twenty-one winners had already won a Group 1 race before. Of the six that line up here, only Bay Bridge is yet to land top honours.

All twenty recent winners finished at least in the places in their last two starts. This stat doesn’t bode well for Mishriff or Lord North, who have failed to place in their last two races.

Odds

Nine of the last twenty winners went off as favourite, but perhaps more interesting is that favourites have won three of the last four renewals. That bodes well for Vadeni, who looks set to go off as the market leader.

In the past twenty years, there’s only been two winners at double-figure odds – Oratorio (12/1) in 2005 and Mukhadram (14/1) in 2014. That doesn’t bode well for Lord North, who looks certain to go off at a double-figure price.

Trainers/Jockeys

French jockey Christophe Soumillon has failed to place in his two attempts in the race so far, but he’s arguably a better jockey now and has ridden 4 winners from his last 10 UK rides.

William Buick (3) and Ryan Moore (2) are the only jockeys in the race to have won it more than once. They’ll be hoping for further glory with Native Trail (Buick) and Bay Bridge (Moore).

The trainer stats are interesting. Sir Michael Stoute has had the joint most winners in the races history (6) and will bid to become the overall leading trainer with Bay Bridge. However, Charlie Appleby has only has three runners in the race and two of them won – Hawkbill (2016) and Ghaiyyath (2020). He’ll be hoping Native Trail can enhance his superb record in the race.

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VERDICT

the majority of stats are against Lord North, so you can see why he’s the rank outsider here. Of the six in the line up, VADENI seems to tick all the boxes for what to look for in a Coral-Eclipse winner. He’s a three-year-old, Group 1 winner over a similar trip in France last time out, has a rating of 120+ and looks set to go off as favourite for the race.

If you are looking to take on the favourite, your best bet could be the other three-year-old Native Trail, who although yet to race at the distance, it’s widely expected that he will relish the trip and could give the favourite most to think about. At bigger odds, Alenquer may be the one to side with each-way, in the hope one of the two market leaders fails to perform.