All-Weather tips – Best bets on Monday, November 18
All-weather racing expert, Jack Haylett looks through today’s cards at Lingfield and Wolverhampton and picks out three horses to back.
Alfurat River (3.20 Wolverhampton)
Alfurat River (9/2 Unibet) has let down favourite backers on last two starts, but clearly it is felt this is a gelding on a workable mark. I’m willing to give him one more chance as I think the step up in trip he now gets, is likely to suit and bring about improvement. His wide stall is clearly not ideal, but I’m not sure this is a particularly strong race for the grade and the selection can hopefully just outclass the field.
His handicap mark of 87 is certainly workable on the basis of his novice victory, that day comfortably beating horses now rated 90, 89, 97, and 88. Now reaching the back-end of his 3yo campaign then clearly not everything has been plain sailing to have only made the track five times so far, but I’d be hopeful he can confirm himself fully over his issues now and take the beating here.
Dark Regard (5.45 Southwell)
Dark Regard (10/3 Paddy Power) showed significant improvement when a three-length winner over course and distance last time. That wasn’t a particularly strong race, but I’d be hopeful the opening mark of 72 she has been allotted could prove lenient. Southwell is such a specialist track and the selection now takes on a field with a lot of first-time runners here, for me that puts her at a significant advantage. Jason Hart has been booked to ride, and he is riding very well at present, winning on four of his last thirteen rides so will be coming here full of confidence.
Of the field Lilkian would be the runner I fear most, he was a winner at the track last time also, but over the shorter trip of 5 furlongs. He kept on nicely that day, but the extra furlong may not be ideal, and I think Dark Regard will outstay him. At the prices I think Dark Regard is a very fair bet and I’d be shocked were she not going very close.
Gleeful (6.15 Southwell)
Pivotal offspring have a very good record when running at Southwell and I’m hoping that on first start here Gleeful (13/8 Unibet7/4 William Hill) can now improve for the switch to the surface. She is a consistent filly and generally runs to around a mark of 70. If able to do so here, then I think that might be enough to see her home as this is a very weak race.
Market rival Bobby Shaft would be the obvious choice as the main danger, but I’m not sure how much he will enjoy the switch to this surface and instead see Memory Hill as the threat. I’d be hopeful however that Gleeful, whom connections will be desperate to get a win out of, will prove the best on the day.