Two huge sporting events occur towards the end of this week. The biggest week in golf takes place at its most iconic venue with the Open at St Andrews, while the Irish Oaks is the eighth Classic of the season across Britain and Ireland on Saturday. We have picked out an each-way double across the two events below.
Scottie Scheffler To Win The Open Championship
Scottie Scheffler ran away with the Masters at Augusta and could complete a memorable year by backing it up in the Open at St Andrews.
We could be in for records this week at St Andrews. The home of golf may just be all too welcoming.
The table has been set with the best silver, the cushions plumped and the lawns finely trimmed. For this week, with conditions set to be benign, the current course record of 63 may not even remain within two shots of the new best.
The R&A will do their best to defend their famous fortress. Pin positions will be challenging, greens will play quick and potentially firm in the absence of rain, but the lack of wind and generous temperatures will be of extreme benefit to the players.
In terms of who is most likely to benefit from that, the bigger hitters should regularly get close off the tee, while a look at the roll of honour at St Andrews Open Championships suggests the greats will contend if not be victorious.
The last two winners are slight outliers to the above. Neither Zach Johnson or Louis Oosthuizen are long off the tee, but the 2015 Open which Johnson won was a curious and tight affair, with conditions turning against those right at the top late on. Moreover, the two best players in the world at the time, Jordan Spieth and Jason Day, finished just a shot outside the playoff.
Similarly, Oosthuizen has subsequently proven to be a top major player, albeit without winning another one. The point of true champions winning at St Andrews is truly emphasised by who won the seven Opens prior to Oosthuizen though: in order, Jack Nicklaus (1970), Jack Nicklaus (1978), Seve Ballesteros (1984), Nick Faldo (1990), John Daly (1995), Tiger Woods (2000) and Tiger Woods (2005), with Daly the only real surprise, although even he had already claimed a major championship victory.
Collin Morikawa is not passed over lightly from winning back-to-back, as he showed his major game remains on point when fifth in the US Open, when only a third round aberration cost him from winning the whole thing. However, the world number one is a fantastic price this week to confirm this year to be one of the all-time great seasons.
SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER’s price owes much to a disappointing week at the Scottish Open in which he missed the cut despite being on the slightly better side of the draw. Nevertheless, the fact he is not in the top five in the market with Paddy Power, who are offering 12 places, is remarkable given the year he is having.
Since the start of the 2021/22 season he has had four wins and four runner-up finishes across 21 events if including the Hero World Challenge. That does not include a stellar debut in the Ryder Cup, nor does it emphasise the dominance he displayed at Augusta, or how close he came to following up in the US Open at Brookline last month. He finished just a shot behind Matt Fitzpatrick and led during the front nine of the final round.
This has, without a doubt, been his season and any suggestion that links golf may not suit him after this weekend are otherwise baseless. He was eighth on his Open debut at Royal St George’s last term when within four going into the final round, while he had been 12th at the Renaissance Club the week before.
Of course, he would rather have had two more rounds to warm up this weekend, but this man hits it far, puts shots in the right places and can putt the lights out when he wants to. In ten majors as a professional, he has made eight cuts, following which he has always finished in the top 20, including six top tens.
A stat by CBS writer Kyle Porter did the rounds earlier this week. Only four men have won five times in a season including the Masters and the Open: Ben Hogan (1953), Arnold Palmer (1962), Tom Watson (1977) and Tiger Woods (2005). Scheffler can join that elite company.
Above The Curve To Win The Irish Oaks
Thoughts Of June (grey horse, right) clung on from Above The Curve (dark blue colours) in the Cheshire Oaks, but those placings may be reversed at the Curragh.
Tuesday could end up running in both the Irish Derby and Oaks after her chances of a win against the boys were downed by Westover three weeks ago.
She would complete an Epsom/Curragh double if victorious, though runner-up Emily Upjohn will be fancied by many to overturn that form after going down by just a nose to the sister of Minding. As long as she breaks evenly, she will be very tough to beat.
There may be a filly with enough talent in here to beat here though. ABOVE THE CURVE won the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp at the end of May and has looked a filly well above average.
She won her maiden over Aidan O’Brien’s Thoughts Of June at Leopardstown, but seemingly got outstayed by that same rival in the Cheshire Oaks when Ryan Moore rode a superb race from the front. That was on soft ground and Above The Curve did not get anywhere near the same run of the race as the winner.
Since then, she has won at the top tier with Thoughts Of June well-beaten in the Oaks and that Chester result is suspect. Joseph O’Brien’s filly has finished well over 1m2f twice now and on a more conventional track, with a free run, she should easily overturn that form and then some.
Her breeding ultimately suggests this trip will be absolutely fine and she should not be too ground dependent. Prices currently into double figures are surprising for a Group 1 winner in a race which could cut up.