Cheltenham day three trends – Picks of the Festival statistics

Cheltenham day three trends tips. Min makes the grade for the Ryanair Chase.Cheltenham day three trends tips. Min makes the grade for the Ryanair Chase.

We assess the Cheltenham day three trends for every race on Thurday and pick out a horse in each contest which should run well according to the statistics.

There has been plenty of thrills, shocks and surprises already over the previous two days of the Cheltenham Festival and Thursday’s third day promises even more as another seven races go to post including the feature Stayers’ Hurdle.

1:30 – Marsh Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f
2:10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m
2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4½f
3:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m
4:10 – Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4½f
4:50 – Daylesford Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m1f
5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+ 0-145) 3m2f

As we move into Thursday’s Cheltenham Festival racecard we look again at some of the key Cheltenham day three trends and highlight one of the runners who should go well according to the statistics.

1:30 – Marsh Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4f


5 key trends to consider

  • 9 of the last 9 winners had at least two starts in the season;
  • 9 of the last 9 winners were aged 6 or 7;
  • 8 of the last 9 winners had won at least twice in the season;
  • 9 of the last 9 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham;
  • 7 of the last 9 winners had won on their last run before Cheltenham.

Faugheen would be a popular winner but the 12yo falls on the wrong side of the age trends; but ITCHY FEET ticks all the key Cheltenham day three trends and meets a few of the supplementary trends so could prove the answer.

Ex-winning hurdlers do well in this race, especially those with three or more wins to their name as is the case with Olly Murphy’s charge who was an impressive winner of the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase when last seen.

The six-year old has won two of his three starts this term which includes that Sandown victory and he ran well for third in last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle behind Klassical Dream. He is 2-2 over fences and open to further improvement could prove the one to beat here.

2:10 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m


5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had at least six previous runs over hurdles;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had had at least three starts in the season;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between six and eight years old;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had run in the previous 48 days;
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won at least twice before.

WELSH SAINT has had one less run than than is ideal according to the Cheltenham day three trends, but Nicky Henderson’s charge ticks plenty of boxes otherwise and could go close if seeing out the extra distance.

The Saint Des Saints gelding has won twice this term from his four outings, with his latest coming at Haydock last month where he ran out a ready winner over Silva Eclipse in heavy ground. He looked strong at the finish and this even longer test of stamina could well suit.

The six-year old has had only five total starts over timber, but he looks a very progressive sort who should give a good account.

Cheltenham day three trends. Nicky Henderson can saddle a Thursday Cheltenham Festival winner.

Cheltenham day three trends. Nicky Henderson can saddle a Thursday Cheltenham Festival winner.

2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4½f


5 key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 winners had run at least twice at Cheltenham;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had won at least once in Graded company;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had been in the top 3 in the betting;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least one Cheltenham win;
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had ran in the previous 60 days.

Of the five key Cheltenham day three trends, only MIN ticks all five boxes and Willie Mullins’ Walk In The Park gelding could finally get a Cheltenham win on the board.

The nine-year old is a multiple Grade One winner, gaining his latest success in the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown in December. He returned from a short break to chase home Chacun Pour Soi in the Dublin Chase over a trip probably short of his best nowadays and he’ll appreciate the return to a longer distance.

He’s made the frame twice from three starts at the track and this could finally be his day.

3:30 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m


5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last twelve winners had run at least once at Cheltenham;
  • 11 of the last twelve winners had had at least two starts in the season;
  • 11 of the last twelve winners had won at least four times over hurdles;
  • 9 of the last twelve winners had won their previous start before Cheltenham;
  • 9 of the last twelve winners were aged between 6 and 8 years.

PAISLEY PARK is hard to oppose and Emma Lavelle’s charge meets all five key Cheltenham day three trends for the Stayers’ Hurdle.

The eight-year old Oscar gelding has won twice this term, including in the Cleeve Hurdle – a good pointer for this race – and the defending champion enjoyed an unbeaten five-run campaign last term. He is 2-2 this season and ought to be hard to beat again having taken the same path to success as he did twelve months ago.

Cheltenham day three trends. Paisley Park can win a second Stayers' Hurdle according to the trends.

Cheltenham day three trends. Paisley Park can win a second Stayers’ Hurdle according to the trends.

4:10 – Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m4½f


5 key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least three runs over the trip;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had had at least three runs in the season;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11st at the weights;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged seven or older;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won at least twice over fences.

He’s likely to be a huge price but Ian Williams’ ROYAL VILLAGE ticks all the key Cheltenham day three trends for this race. While this is a much more competitive event than he’s used to tackling he could still run well.

A dual-winner last summer, he ran well when finishing third when last seen at Market Rasen behind Copper West and returns here from five months off the track. He has gone well fresh in the past however and there might be some scope still to improve.

This is a much tougher assignment and he’ll need to find improvement, but he could go well at a price with the key statistics looking positive.

4:50 – Daylesford Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m1f


5 key trends to consider

  • 4 of the last 4 winners were trained by Willie Mullins;
  • 3 of the last 4 winners carried 11st 7lbs;
  • 4 of the last 4 winners were aged five years old;
  • 3 of the last 4 winners were unbeaten prior to Cheltenham;
  • 3 of the past 4 winners went off favourite for the race.

This race has only been running for four years but Willie Mullins has made it his own. However there might be a change of hands this year.

None of the intended runners tick all the key Cheltenham day three trends for this Grade Two prize, but DOLCITA closely matches the trends and could give Willie Mullins a fifth successive win in the race.

The Saint Des Saints mare lies towards the head of the market, but she’s unlikely to go off favourite. The five-year old is saddled with 11-2 for this assignment and wasn’t beaten far behind reopposing Minella Melody from whom she gets 5lbs.

She should have more to offer and she can go well on the trends for this contest.

Cheltenham day three trends. Flying Angel could post a big run in the day three finale.

Cheltenham day three trends. Flying Angel could post a big run in the day three finale.

5:30 – Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Riders’ Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+ 0-145) 3m2f


5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had run at least six times over fences;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 134 or higher;
  • 11of the last 12 winners were aged between 7 and 9;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had run within the previous 76 days;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous Cheltenham start.

Quite a few of these hit the mark with the Cheltenham day three trends and FLYING ANGEL could make his presence felt having run well in the past in big handicaps at this meeting.

The Arcadio gelding got back on the winning trail for the first time in more than 30 months when successful at Ascot in November and he’s run better than the bare result on both subsequent starts.

The nine-year old has plenty of weight, but he does have the back-class to be a factor here and the big field will suit him. He could go well if running somewhere near his best.