Cobden’s Crackers – Harry Has Five Chances At Wincanton on Wednesday
Analysis of Harry Cobden’s Five Wincanton Rides
Although his boss Paul Nicholls also revels in success at Wincanton, Harry Cobden’s own strike rate is even more impressive at the Somerset track. 31% of his rides end up victorious, which would have resulted in a 21.75-point profit had you backed all of his munts at the track.
Electric Annie (1:50 Wincanton)
It is probably no coincidence that in her two runs in partnership with Harry Cobden she has put in her best two performances.
The seven-year-old was winless for Milton Harris, but a change of scenery with Jack Barber, coupled with him putting Cobden up more recently, have worked wonders. She was second at Taunton on good-to-firm ground in November, with that unseasonably quick surface another potential reason for her improvement.
She was left on an unchanged mark for that effort, which she took advantage of at Wincanton before Christmas. Her 12-length winning margin speaks genuinely of her dominance that day and a 10lb rise for this improving mare may not be enough to stop her.
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Danny Kirwan (2:20 Wincanton)
For his usual boss Paul Nicholls, Cobden will be keen on the chances of the slightly mercurial DANNY KIRWAN.
He will be sporting first-time cheekpieces, which may just help him settle and concentrate on the job at hand. It certainly looked like he was in need of some form of aid at Cheltenham on his chase debut when drifting markedly out to the right after the last and costing himself much chance.
Nevertheless, his effort at Kempton on Boxing Day was below that par, but he is a chase winner in the making. Alan King’s Jay Bee Why has also been running in some tougher races than this and the pair look to have it between them.
Flagrant Delitiep (2:50 Wincanton)
Given he is first choice jockey for one of the most powerful stables in the land, it is also impressive how versatile Cobden has been for slightly smaller yards.
He has a 22% strike rate when teaming up with Robert Walford, who runs FLAGRANT DELITIEP in this handicap chase.
Recent form dictates that he is in trouble in this lineup, as all three runs this season have been disappointing, albeit in stronger races than this. Moreover, in the two handicap chases at Fontwell and Chepstow, he was competing with among the highest marks he has ever raced off before.
That is because his form last season was excellent and involved him improving 22lb in the ratings over fences. He is also the only course and distance winner in the field and is 6lb lower than when second over track and trip in February.
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Magistrato (3:50 Wincanton)
It might prove a shrewd move for Nicholls to have entered his useful juvenile hurdler MAGISTRATO in handicap company.
He has only just turned four and at this early stage, he receives a 13lb allowance against his elders. A winner on his debut for Nicholls at Chepstow in impressive fashion, he has proven just a touch below the best of his division when fourth and then fifth in Graded races at Cheltenham and then back at Chepstow.
His opening mark of 123 is definitely one Nicholls and indeed Cobden would be confident in improving. This looks to be an astute and tactical decision to run him in such a race at an early stage of his career.
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Hard Frost (4:20 Wincanton)
In all honesty it’s disappointing that Bryony Frost is not on board for the ride, but Cobden’s exceptional record at Wincanton rises to an even greater 37% success rate when riding over hurdles.
HARD FROST ran very well on his bumper debut at Newton Abbot in April, but has found more competitive races with cut in the ground a bit beyond him.
However, he did run on into fourth on his hurdles bow at Ludlow and the winner, Balco Coastal, might be very useful, so he should find this far easier.