Friday Cheltenham Festival trends – Statistics picks on day four

Friday Cheltenham Festival trends.Friday Cheltenham Festival trends.

We assess the final day Friday Cheltenham Festival trends for every race and highlight a runner in each race which should run well according to the statistics.

It is the final day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival and the last of four top-class days’ horse racing action goes to post with seven more top races headed by the Gold Cup.

1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo) 2m1f
2:10 – Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m1f
2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m
3:30 – Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m2½f
4:10 – St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2½f
4:50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m½f
5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 2m4½f

As the final day of the Festival unfolds we look again for one last time at the Friday Cheltenham Festival trends and highlight one of the runners in every race who according to the trends could give a good account.

1:30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 (4yo) 2m1f

5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had run in the past 55 days;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one win;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least two hurdles starts;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were rated 139 or higher;
  • 2 of the last 12 winners have run at Cheltenham previously.

SOLO was impressive in winning the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton on his first start for Paul Nicholls; but the Kapgarde gelding had won over hurdles in France and looks a very exciting prospect judging on the manner of his success at the Sunbury venue.

That Kempton race has thrown up a couple of winners of this race and he meets all the key trends for this contest. Supporters will be hoping he doesn’t go off favourite for the race as market leaders don’t have the best record; but he features towards the top of the betting and can give a good account if handling the demands of Cheltenham

Friday Cheltenham Festival trends. Solo can run well in the Triumph Hurdle.

Friday Cheltenham Festival trends. Solo can run well in the Triumph Hurdle.

2:10 – Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m1f

5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had at least one hurdles win over the trip;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least five hurdles starts over the trip;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11st 1lb;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years;
  • 7 of the last 12 winners had won at least once in the season.

Gordon Elliott is flying at the Festival and THATSY on the trends could be worth an interest.

The six-year old has had five starts this term, winning over further at Navan in November and running respectably in a couple of big-field handicaps the last twice.

Rated 139 and with Davy Russell in the plate he could go well having seen the form of his win being franked.

2:50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Spa Novices’ Hurdle) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m

5 key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 winners had run at least three times in the season;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one run over the trip;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had last run less than 62 days previously;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded race;
  • 7 of the last 12 winners had won at least three times over hurdles.

The key stats point to a big run by RAMSES DE TEILLEE who has a very good record over this trip over hurdles and David Pipe’s charge ought to go well.

The Martaline gelding has been in top form since returning to the smaller obstacles, winning his last two starts which includes a game success in heavy ground at Haydock latest.

An older novice he has plenty of experience on his side and he ticks all the key boxes so can post a big run.

Friday Cheltenham Festival trends. Ramses De Teillee can run well in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle.

Friday Cheltenham Festival trends. Ramses De Teillee can run well in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle.

3:30 – Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m2½f

5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous Cheltenham run;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were aged seven, eight or nine;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least two runs in the season;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won their previous start before Cheltenham;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had their last run within the last 77 days.

Another race where quite a few of the runners meet the key Friday Cheltenham Festival trends and DELTA WORK could run a big race having won two of his three starts this season.

Gordon Elliott’s charge has beaten a few of these rivals in starts since finishing third in last season’s RSA Chase and there’s likely more to come from him where he could still be improving.

4:10 – St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 3m2½f

5 key trends to consider

  • 10 of the last 12 winners were aged eight or older;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least one run in the season;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had last run less than 41 days previously;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won or placed in their previous start before Cheltenham;
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous Cheltenham run.

SHANTOU FLYER finished runner-up in this race twelve months ago and Rose Loxton’s charge could post another big run.

The Shantou gelding hacked up at Fakenham when last seen out, beating Haymount by more than twenty lengths having also won between the flags at Larkhill.

He was beaten four lengths in this race twelve months ago behind Hazel Hill and he goes very well at this track so will likely be in the mix again.

Friday Cheltenham Festival trends. Shantou Flyer could go well in the Foxhunters' Chase.

Friday Cheltenham Festival trends. Shantou Flyer could go well in the Foxhunters’ Chase.

4:50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m½f

5 trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one previous win over fences;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least three runs in the season;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least three times over the trip;
  • 7 of the last 12 winners had their last run less than 54 days ago.

ECLAIR DE BEAUFEU tackled the County Hurdle last term but he’s taken well to chasing this term where he’s won twice from his five starts and has run well in Graded company behind Notebook and Tornado Flyer.

Gordon Elliott’s charge returned from a short break to win at Leopardstown last month and as a three-time winner over the trip ought to go well.

5:30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 2m4½f

5 key trends to consider

  • 10 of the last 11 winners have been aged five or six years;
  • 10 of the last 11 winners had at least three previous hurdles starts;
  • 9 of the last 11 winners had had at least three runs in the season;
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had at least one win in the season.
  • 7 of the last 11 winners had at least two wins over hurdles.

FIVE O’CLOCK has had three hurdles starts, winning twice and Willie Mullins’ charge makes plenty of appeal on the Friday Cheltenham Festival trends where the Cokoriko gelding ticks all the boxes.

Last seen winning a Grade Three contest at Thurles, beating Front View, he looks to have been handed a fair mark and could have more to offer with this stiff track likely to play to his strengths.