Friday’s 17,262/1 Lucky 15 – Our UK Racing Best Bets On June 10
There are a whopping eight meetings across the UK and Ireland on Friday. However, our 17,262/1 Lucky 15 top tips are much more compact, with three selections from Sandown and one from York.
Safari Dream (1.10 Sandown)
None of the four combatants who have had a run ahead of this race particularly inspire confidence for stepping forward significantly. Conversely, all three of the debutants offer reason to be hopeful.
David O’Meara has made a good start with his two-year-olds in 2022, so Midday Martini ought to be fairly popular, while the colours of Clipper Logistics are often carried with distinction in such races: they have Time Off for Stuart Williams.
However, it is Rod Millman’s runner SAFARI DREAM who is chanced here. The yard have been in flying form with four winners from their last five runners, while they have also had two two-year-old winners this term, almost as many as in the entirety of 2021.
You would have made a one-point profit backing Millman’s juveniles so far this year. Safari Dream is well-bred for success as a youngster being by Bungleinthejungle, with his brother, Amazonian Dream, a two-time winner at that age. He also ran very well first-time out last term, being beaten only by a future Group 2 winner.
Rogue Star (2.20 Sandown)
Sandown’s third race features a competitive three-year-old handicap, but one who stands out is ROGUE STAR for connections who have had somewhat of a breakout 2022.
Tom Clover’s charge made his first three starts on the all-weather, making a promising debut over 7f at Southwell. He was not quite as good over 1m at the same track, or at Lingfield the race prior, in January.
However, his turf debut almost went perfectly to plan. He looked threatening for the majority of a 1m handicap at Haydock, only to find his efforts wanting in the closing stages. Had the race been 100 yards shorter, he would have likely finished second.
As such, the drop back to 7f, over which he ran well on debut too, should be a big plus to his chances.
Eshtora (2.50 Sandown)
The rank outsider in this eight-runner field, ESHTORA rates as a very interesting each-way proposition here.
A half-sister to three different winners and a daughter of Shamardal, Simon & Ed Crisford’s filly was a winner on debut back in April. That form is fairly strong, with the runner-up having filled that position on both her subsequent starts, one of which came in Listed company at Newmarket.
She managed to win that race despite doing a lot wrong, including missing the break slightly. She did not get away with that same trick at Kempton thereafter, but she was not beaten far when last of sixth in a conditions event. Her first turf start at Newmarket went very badly wrong, but jockey Ross Coakley suggested that was largely due to her not handling the Rowley Mile.
If that was the case, her tailing off is far more excusable. Down another 2lb to a mark of 73, she would be of significant interest if more professional, as Sandown should be a much kinder track for her.
Mountain Brave (3.00 York)
Having her second run for Charlie Fellowes, MOUNTAIN BRAVE is on a very tempting mark if improving for her reappearance.
As is traditional at Mark Johnston’s yard, she was campaigned very regularly in 2021, racing 11 times and securing two victories. Both successes came off a mark of 92, with ratings beyond that proving too much. That said, she came within a length of success at Salisbury off 95.
On her last two starts, split between Johnston and Fellowes, she has contested Listed races. Both times she could finish no better than lower mid-pack, but those runs have served to drop her to a mark of 90, 2lb below her last winning one. That seems generous given the company she has kept.
James Doyle is a positive booking for the mare, while cheekpieces could easily help her to settle.