Friday’s all-weather tips – Three tips at Southwell and Chelmsford
Jack Haylett picks out three of his best all-weather tips across the cards at Southwell and Chelmsford on Friday 7th February.
Friday’s All-Weather Tips
I think the 2:35 is a much more open race than the market would suggest, and I am more than happy to oppose short-priced favourite Iron Heart with my Racing Tips selections. He has shown only moderate form so far, so whilst he may progress, he is simply too short here.
The one I like is Looktothelight (4/1 Paddy Power), he seemed to benefit for the switch to this surface when posting a career best last time, admittedly he was beaten 8 lengths into second, but that was behind a very smart looking performer, and he had pulled 5 lengths clear of 70 and 68 rated horses in third and fourth.
That form looks to set the standard amongst this field, and there could easily be more to come now. It is not the deepest line-up here, and I feel the 4/1 currently being offered is more than fair. I would be astonished were he not going very close.
A big field has assembled for this 1 mile handicap, but for me the race is all about one horse; Bold Decision (11/8 Unibet), whom I think will take the world of beating here. You may say that in such a big field backing a horse as short as 11/8 is a little strange, and cannot represent any value at all, but if looking at the race a little more closely it is immediately clear how weak a race this is.
Then if you look at the form of Bold Decisions last run then it is striking how well handicapped he could be, that day he was beaten just a neck by a very much in form horse, having pulled five and a half lengths clear of the third placed finisher. Racing from the same mark here, and with the booking of the most in form jockey riding at present, Hollie Doyle, then Bold Decision looks very hard to beat.
I expect them to keep things simple and I would be very disappointed were the selection not shedding the maiden tag here. He looks to be the best of my all-weather tips.
Fly True (5/2 Unibet) could not have been more impressive than when shooting clear to score by 3 and a ¼ lengths over course and distance last time. That boosted this fillies already good record on this surface, and crucially despite her weight rise she gets to stay in the same grade here.
A 4lb penalty that she is tasked with carrying effectively puts her 3lbs well in, given the handicapper raised her 7 for that victory and it would be hard to book a better jockey than Mr Simon Walker who takes the ride here. In these amateur handicaps a good jockey is so valuable, so with this factored in then I think Fly True becomes a very nice betting proposition.
Of the field then it would only really be The Eagle’s Nest that I see as a threat, as he is flying at present, but at 10/3 I’m happy to take the chance on Fly True.