ITV Racing Tips – Our picks for all five ITV races at Epsom on Saturday
ITV Racing Tips on Saturday, June 4th
It’s Derby Day! ITV are showing the feature race along with four other cracking races at Epsom. We’ve picked out our selection for each of those races. Check those out below, alongside today’s best bets – which are free to view on site now.
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War Horse (2:00 Epsom – Cazoo Handicap)
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We start things off with Marco Botti’s WAR HORSE, who looks a great price to confirm Sandown running with Nolton Cross.
The manner of that victory was impressive, staying on strongly to see off the challenge of the trio of runners (including Nolton Cross). Nolton Cross may have been hampered in the run-in, but only marginally and War Horse always looked to be doing enough. War Horse is also 5lb better off with that rival this time around too, which is a further plus!
Andrea Atzeni was on board for that race and is back on again for this, and he’s been in superb form of late, operating at a 25% strike-rate over the past two weeks. He also has a 20% strike-rate when riding for trainer Marco Botti over the last five years, and has already ridden a winner for him this year (War Horse last month).
His biggest challenge could come from Hugo Palmer’s Box To Box, but the form of his Salisbury win hasn’t worked out all that well, so War Horse is a confident pick to get us off to a flyer in our ITV tips.
Potapova (2:35 Epsom – Princess Elizabeth Stakes)
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This is a tough race to call, but we’re siding with Sir Michael Stoute’s POTAPOVA. She was unlucky not to win in the Snowdrop Fillies’ Stakes at Kempton back in April and that form could hardly be working out any better!
Roman Mist just got the better of her that day, and although she hasn’t been seen yet the horses who finished behind her have given the form a huge boost. My Astra (3rd) bolted up by 12 lengths to win in Listed company at Ayr last month and Lola Showgirl (4th) bettered that result by winning the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes at Lingfield last month.
That was Potapova’s first run of the season and she should come on leaps and bounds for it. We’re not sold on her biggest market rival Bashkirova, who was deservedly beaten by Miss Fitzherbert at Goodwood on reappearance and if anything, the winner that day will be Potapova’s biggest rival here.
Ryan Moore has ridden two winners from his three rides for Sir Michael Stoute in the last two weeks and the pair can team up again for another winner here with Potapova.
Modern News (3:10 Epsom – Cazoo Diomed Stakes)
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Charlie Appleby and William Buick rarely go a Saturday without a winner these days and they can strike with MODERN NEWS in the Diomed Stakes.
He looked every bit a Group winner when streaking clear to land the Listed Royal Windsor Stakes last month, where you could call him the winner a long way out. Admittedly he was an odds-on shot that day, but he won it in the manner you would want an odds-on favourite to win.
He only stepped up to a mile this year, and in his three races he finished seventh on his first attempt (beaten just over 3 lengths and with a different jockey riding) before winning the other two. His closest rival Mutasaabeq has raced three times over a mile but is yet to win, whilst both Megallan and Finest Sound have been racing over longer trips lately.
Modern News seems to be improving with each run this season, and with William Buick retaining the ride he can grab a Group win at the first time of asking.
Thegreatestshowman (3:45 Epsom – Simpex Express ‘Dash’ Handicap)
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This race looks wide open and one we like at a price is THEGREATESTSHOWMAN. Amy Murphy’s gelding has had three rides so far this year but her best performance came at Epsom and the hope is returning to the course can see her back to her best.
She was never close on her reappearance run at Southwell after blowing the start, but her two other runs have been full of promise. He finished second at Epsom behind course specialist Mokaatil back in April, but was the only one in the top five who raced prominently. Even with Mokaatil’s jockey allowance, Thegreatestshowman is 5lb better off with that rival this time around.
His fourth-placed finish in his last race at Newmarket wasn’t overly special but the form has worked out nicely. Four of the runners in the race have raced since and two have won – Rebel At Dawn (2nd) and Get It (5th).
Stefano Cherchi has been on board for all three rides this season, but connections have booked Silvestre De Sousa for the ride here. His experience can be put to good use and he looks a huge price to land this.
Changingoftheguard (4:30 Epsom – Cazoo Derby)
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On to the big one! The Derby has plenty of big names lining up and the majority of runners are all in with a chance. However, the one that we feel has the most going for him is CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD.
Trainer A P O’Brien has a fantastic recent record in the race (won six of the last ten renewals), and although Ryan Moore has picked to ride Stone Age, we think Changingoftheguard has the more solid credentials to win this.
There’s plenty of further stats to support our selection:
- Six of the last nine winners won one of the key trial races beforehand (Chester Vase included).
- Four of the last ten winners were sired by Galileo.
- Eight of the last nine winners drawn in stall 7 of above (he’s in stall 16).
- Six of the last ten winners won last time out.
That Chester Vase win was hugely impressive, where he didn’t see a rival throughout and ended up cruising to victory by over six lengths. He has won going away on both runs this season and the manner in which he won both races suggest the step up in trip shouldn’t prove an issue.
He does have some serious rivals in this, notably Desert Crown and Stone Age, but Changingoftheguard has looked seriously impressive in both outings this season and at the odds, we’re siding with the A P O’Brien second string to land the spoils.
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