Monday 4 November horse racing tips – Varian’s 2/1 chance set to Establish winning credentials at Kempton
Brian Healy gives his race-by-race selections and best bets for all of Monday’s UK and Irish horse racing meetings.
The week gets underway with a four-fixture schedule of UK horse racing fixtures which takes in jumps racing from the meetings at Hereford and Plumpton, while on the all-weather there is an afternoon fixture on the Kempton polytrack.
Also racing on Monday evening is Newcastle, who go to post on their tapeta surface under the floodlights.
Plumpton (jumps) – 1.10 – 4.10pm (7 races)
Kempton (flat, aw) – 1.30 – 5.00pm (8 races)
Hereford (jumps) – 1.50 – 4.20pm (6 races)
Newcastle (flat, aw) – 4.05 – 7.45pm (8 races)
MONDAY 4 NOVEMBER NAP SELECTION
(2.40) ACEY MILAN (7/2, Ladbrokes) wasn’t able to quite match his smart bumper form when switched to hurdles last term, but Antony Honeyball’s charge did show some fairly useful form which included a win here in February, and he ran respectably in defeat when finishing third to Poker Player at Uttoxeter in March.
The Milan gelding possibly failed to stay the three miles when last seen at Punchestown in May, but he returns following six months off and wind surgery down in trip and he could have more to offer over timber.
Conditions will be no issue, and while he might need this he looks worth chancing to post a big effort on his return.
(3.40) SIR EGBERT (9/4, William Hill) finished third on his recent reappearance at Wetherby last month, and the Kayf Tara gelding can do better with that run under his belt.
A Newbury chase winner last December, Tom Lacey’s charge subsequently found only one too good at Market Rasen before shaping as if amiss at Sandown in February. He wasn’t seen out again until finishing a good third of nine runners behind Ballyvic Boru on his return, beaten around ten lengths and he should strip fitter with that run under his belt.
He reverts to hurdles here, and if he can run up to his chase mark over the smaller obstacles then he could prove a tough nut to crack despite giving weight away all round and the Kayf Tara gelding can get back to winning ways here.
1.10 – Touchthesoul
1.40 – Get The Appeal
2.10 – Hit The Highway
2.40 – Acey Milan
3.10 – Brother Bennett
3.40 – Sir Egbert
4.10 – Two Sams
(3.00) DARGEL (9/2, Bet365) racked up back-to-back wins at Chepstow and Kempton earlier in the campaign, and although the Dark Angel colt hasn’t added to his tally in a trio of subsequent outings, he has made the frame each time and was only denied by a half-length latest at Chelmsford.
He finished third on that occasion on his return from a short break, running on well late but not quite reaching the winner, and he turns out here from the same mark so a repeat of that run ought to see him in the mix again.
(3.30) ESTABLISH (2/1, William Hill) stepped up on his debut seventh at Ascot to find only one too good at Newbury back in September, and open to further improvement for his in-form yard then the Australia colt could get off the mark here at the third attempt.
Roger Varian’s charge travelled well in that contest as he helped to force the pace with the eventual winner, and the pair traded blows for much of the race with the selection just coming off worst.
However, likely to continue to improve further he can open his account now, and he could prove to be a decent prospect in time so may go close with a repeat of that last run.
1.30 – Kyllachys Tale
2.00 – River Dawn
2.30 – Ardiente
3.00 – Dargel
3.30 – Establish
4.00 – Royal Line
4.30 – Freckles
5.00 – Peace Prevails
(2.20) OLLY THE BRAVE (11/8, Ladbrokes) offered plenty to work with on his hurdles debut at Worcester last month, and Dan Skelton’s charge can step up on the experience gained in that first run to open his account over obstacles at the second attempt.
The Black Sam Bellamy gelding wasn’t given a hard time in finishing third where he was only beaten around four lengths, and the Warwick bumper winner ought to improve for that first outing over timber so every chance he can post a big effort on this occasion for a yard that continues in decent heart.
(3.20) CHAMPION CHASE (7/1, Bet365) is yet to get off the mark, but the Voix Du Nord gelding has posted several good runs in defeat, and he should strip much fitter for his reappearance at Stratford last month.
Martin Bosley’s charge had rounded off last season with a pair of runner-up efforts at Plumpton from marks higher than this, and he could be worth siding with to step up on his return to action under the in-form Sam Twiston-Davies.
His 0-18 losing streak is a slight concern, but he was only beaten around five lengths last time and every chance he can take a forward step with that run under his belt from an appealing mark.
1.50 – Layerthorpe
2.20 – Olly The Brave
2.50 – Destined To Shine
3.20 – Champion Chase
3.50 – Sense Of Adventure
4.20 – Sid Hoodie
(5.45) AUCKLAND LODGE (11/2, Paddy Power) arrives here on a hat-trick having already struck a pair of wins at Catterick in September, latterly running out a three-parts of a length winner over Maybellene.
Ben Haslam’s charge had won earlier in the campaign at Carlisle, and following a couple of lesser efforts she has come back to form with a vengeance and might be worth sticking with for this latest outing where she remains with scope having been raised only 4lbs for that last success.
The Dandy Man filly makes his tapeta debut, and if handling the switch in surface having only raced on turf then every chance she can collect the three-timer.
(7.45) HERRINGSWELL (9/2, William Hill) ended a 16-run losing streak when going in at Yarmouth last month, and the Pour Moi filly could be worth chancing to follow up here.
Henry Spiller’s charge ran out a ready winner over Tulloona, scoring by four lengths despite being 1lb out of the weights, and if she were able to replicate that level of performance then she could well strike again despite her subsequent 6lbs rise in the weights.
The drop to sprinting seemed to work the oracle having contested over further throughout her career, while she is still unexposed on tapeta and could go close with a repeat of that effort switching to this surface.
4.05 – Tonyx
4.40 – Penmellyn
5.15 – Asmund
5.45 – Auckland Lodge
6.15 – Cawthorne Lad
6.45 – Searanger
7.15 – Brushwork
7.45 – Herringswell