Monday’s 15,320/1 Lucky 15 – Our UK Racing Best Bets On June 6
Six meetings take place across Britain and Ireland on Monday. Our 15,320/1 Lucky 15 top tips come from four different meetings at Lingfield, Listowel, Southwell and Windsor.
Rochebrune (1.18 Lingfield)
Lingfield’s opener involves a very short-priced favourite in Appier. However, his only run on the all-weather in the past was disappointing, albeit before he won his last two contests at Beverley.
Nevertheless, that makes him worth taking on at skinny odds, and next in the market is ROCHEBRUNE for George Baker. It has been an unlikely twist that Postponed’s progeny have been better over 1m given his middle-distance success, but that still makes this three-year-old interesting up to 1m4f for the first time.
His only success came on Kempton’s polytrack last term, but despite only meeting with one heavy defeat in four subsequent handicap starts, he has dropped an accumulative 7lb in the handicap to a mark of 60. On his last two starts at Bath, which resulted in a third and a fourth, he was finishing off his race well.
He ran noticeable wide on that latter start, which would not have helped his cause. Back on an artificial surface, he could be lurking on an attractive rating.
My Friend The Wind (3.10 Listowel)
Few low-grade Irish handicaps make for appealing propositions, but there is one exception in this field who leaps out as one with a chance.
Eric McNamara’s MY FRIEND THE WIND made four starts between May and August last season with form of 1233. The win may have been on unseasonably heavy ground, but the latter three efforts were all in conditions that he will meet at Listowel on Monday: 2m4f on good ground.
That win was also his first start after a 227-day break, similar to that which he is returning off here. He may have been disappointing on his two course and distance starts, but he has had excuses on both, jumping very poorly on his first handicap run on course debut, then stumbling after jumping the penultimate flight last September.
These conditions look set for him to run a big race. There is no standout blot, so he should make himself competitive.
Overtougeorge (4.30 Southwell)
Sehayli could be very interesting on his first start for Laura Morgan, but a horse who has strongly improved his form on recent efforts is OVERTOUGEORGE.
Father and son Charles & Adam Pogson’s charge had no discernible form in his first 12 efforts on a racetrack up until March this year. However, two runs in May provided easily his best two career runs. He was third in a novice seller at Stratford at 40/1 before returning to handicap company over course and distance.
He had been given a 10lb rise for that runner-up effort, yet defied that by winning a novice handicap two weeks ago. There may have only been four runners, but he was fairly well on top at the finish there. He is set to carry another 4lb extra here, but that is not a harsh rise.
The yard have won with three of their first eight runners for the season, already matching their total for the entirety of the 2020/21 season. This horse is testament to that level of improvement and can go in again.
Arboy Will (5.05 Windsor)
Completely forgotten about in the market here is top weight ARBOY WILL, who is in with a distinct chance of going close here.
One of his two career victories came over course and distance on his debut, while he also contested Group 3 honours at Goodwood last term. That came after he won two of his first three races and though things have not been as easy since, he is now down to an extremely tempting mark.
He began this season at Sandown, and placed at 66/1 in a handicap off a rating of 86. The form of that race has worked out very well, with the winner having won comfortably again since. Arboy Will’s next two starts have seen him finish well down the field at Goodwood, but he has given the strong impression, especially on his latest start, that that track does not suit.
Back at a course in which he has definitive winning form, a mark of 77 quite possibly underestimates the ceiling of his ability. That third at Sandown was off 9lb higher and he would be thrown in on that effort.