Shock Alert! Three Overpriced Royal Ascot Runners on Saturday
Three Outsiders for Royal Ascot Day 5
Royal Ascot has so far produced winners at odds of 40/1 and 50/1, and with this in mind, we’ve delved through the Saturday card in an attempt to identify three big-priced runners which represent a spot of value.
Dubai Poet (3.05 Ascot) 40/1
The Jersey Stakes can produce a shock result, as seen in 2019 when Space Traveller scored at odds of 25/1, and at an even bigger price in 2022, DUBAI POET shouldn’t be overlooked for Andrea Atzeni and trainer Roger Varian.
Connections have always liked this colt, who had some eye-catching form to his name as a juvenile which is headlined by his third to the Guineas winner Coroebus in the often informative Autumn Stakes.
Dubai Poet made a promising 3yo debut when runner-up over a mile at Newcastle in April, where he just ran out of steam late on having led a furlong out, ultimately hanging on for second. It was something of a surprise to see connections up Dubai Poet to an extended 1m2f on the back of that run, and it was no shock that his stamina failed to hold out over that distance.
On both that piece of form and Dubai Poet’s Newcastle reappearance, 7f on a stiff track may well prove his optimum conditions, and therefore at the 40/1 available looks worth an each-way play.
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Warrior Brave (5.00 Ascot) 40/1
We’ve seen throughout this week how low-to-middle draws have been important on Ascot’s straight track and that makes the huge price available about WARRIOR BRAVE (drawn stall 3) all the more puzzling.
This Twilight Son gelding gained a trio of wins for Mick Appleby but it was his second-place finish in the Listed Scurry Stakes which was his best performance on the figures.
Warrior Brave was sold for 100,000 guineas at the July sales after finishing down the field at this meeting 12 months ago, a run which is easily forgiven in account of the heavy ground. Whilst he’s been seen only three times since joining Kildare-based trainer Ross O’Sullivan he’s caught the eye on a couple of occasions, most recently when third at Fairyhouse when attempting to concede 3lb to a now 100-rated rival and 7lb to a now 103-rated runner.
That form in isolation suggests that a mark of 101 shouldn’t prove beyond Warrior Brave, particularly as 6f on the fast ground should prove ideal for him. Connections have snapped up leading Irish jockey Colin Keane for the ride and therefore it’s a surprise to see this lad trading at odds of 40/1.
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Reshoun (6.10 Ascot) 33/1
Royal Ascot’s closing Queen Alexandra Stakes is a market which is likely to be altered significantly by the expected withdrawal (unless we see a deluge of rain) of market leader Trueshan. A quick glance at the recent winners suggests that shocks in the event don’t happen often, but it’s worth noting that we’ve had four 40/1 placed horses since 2014 and at a big price this time around, RESHOUN looks like a fascinating contender.
Ian Williams’ charge was a shock 66/1 winner of the Ascot Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago and was by no means disgraced in fifth when attempting to retain his crown on Tuesday.
That was a run worth upgrading as Reshoun was forced to challenge from out wide and from the back of the field in a race where the pace held up. He was making up ground quickly at the line, and that would suggest that the additional yardage in prospect in Saturday’s Queen Alexandra Stakes will suit better.
Recent Derby-winning jockey Richard Kingscote keeps the ride this afternoon, and although on the bare weights and measurements Reshoun does have something to find it’s very interesting that he’s a horse that’s historically done well when attempting a quick turnaround between his races, having won on the back of just a nine-day break in 2020, and having finished third on the back of a nine-day break in 2017 – that would suggest that, if anything, the four-day break between now and Tuesday will be of benefit to Reshoun, and therefore his 33/1 odds look worth taking advantage of.