The Epsom Derby – Our 1-2-3 Prediction For The Big One!

Changingoftheguard ridden by jockey Ryan Moore on their way to winning the Boodles Chester Vase Stakes during the Boodles May Festival City Day at Chester Racecourse. Picture date: Wednesday May 4, 2022.Changingoftheguard ridden by jockey Ryan Moore on their way to winning the Boodles Chester Vase Stakes during the Boodles May Festival City Day at Chester Racecourse. Picture date: Wednesday May 4, 2022.

The Epsom Derby is one of the biggest races in the world – we talk through some of the big names lining up, before giving our expert 1-2-3 verdict!

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Desert Crown (Sir Michael Stoute, Richard Kingscote) 15/8

DESERT CROWN RIDDEN BY RICHARD KINGSCOTE, AL BASTI EQUIWORLD DUBAI DANTE STAKES, 2022

Desert Crown

A deserved favourite for the race, after his dominant display in the Dante. Sir Michael Stoute’s colt has won both his races convincingly and it would be no surprise to see him bolt up here. However, the form of his Dante run doesn’t look as strong as it could, with only Royal Patronage lining up in this, and he’s a big outsider.


Stone Age (A P O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 9/2

Stone Age ridden by Ryan Moore on their way to win the Derby Trial Stakes race during Derby Trial day at Leopardstown racecourse, Dublin. Picture date: Sunday May 8, 2022.

Stone Age

The pick of Ryan Moore, Stone Age is 2/2 so far this year, and has won both races with authority. Impressed when winning the Derby Trial at Leopardstown last month, running out a five length winner. Trainer has won six of the last ten renewals of the race and he has a solid chance of adding to that excellent record with Stone Age.


Nations Pride (Charlie Appleby, William Buick) 13/2

Nations Pride and William Buick coming home to win the Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Newmarket Stakes on the opening day of the QIPCO Guineas Festival at Newmarket Racecourse, Newmarket. Picture date: Friday April 29, 2022.

Nations Pride

Supplemented for the race and has only been beaten once in five starts. Was an easy winner of the Listed Newmarket Stakes, but this is a marked step up in class and he looks vulnerable to some bigger names here. The choice of William Buick, but he did choose wrong last year.


Changingoftheguard (A P O’Brien, Wayne Lordan) 7/1

Changingoftheguard ridden by jockey Ryan Moore on their way to winning the Boodles Chester Vase Stakes during the Boodles May Festival City Day at Chester Racecourse. Picture date: Wednesday May 4, 2022.

Changingoftheguard

A decisive winner in both races this season, including not seeing a rival when winning the Chester Vase by over six lengths. That race is seen as one of the key trials for the Derby, so the form looks impressive. May be the yards second choice, but any of A P O’Brien’s runners are worth noting and Ryan Moore could’ve chose the wrong runner!


Piz Badile (Donnacha O’Brien, Frankie Dettori) 17/2

Piz Badile ridden by Gavin Ryan wins The P.W. McGrath Memorial Ballysax Stakes (Group 3) during the Ballyinch Stud Classic Trials Day at Leopardstown Racecourse, Dublin. Picture date: Saturday April 2, 2022.

Piz Badile

The choice of two-time Derby winner Frankie Dettori, and won the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes when last seen in April. Has had some good battles with Duke De Sessa in his last few outings, and that horse was demolished by Stone Age in the Derby Trial. On that basis, he will need a fair bit of improvement to get close to Stone Age.


Notable Outsiders

Nahanni ridden by William Buick, on their way to winning the Cazoo Blue Riband Trial during the Epsom Downs Spring Meeting at Epsom Downs Racecourse. Picture date: Tuesday April 19, 2022.

Nahanni

Plenty of big-odds selections in with chances, including A P O’Brien’s Star Of India (12/1), who stayed on well to win the Lsited Dee Stakes at Chester last month. However, one at bigger odds we think can outrun his odds is Nahanni (18/1), who had proved his stamina when running out a dominant winner over this trip at Leicester, and won at the course on his most recent outing in Listed company. That day he beat United Nations comfortably, who went out and beat another Derby hopeful in Walk Of Stars next time out.


VERDICT

This is a cracking renewal of the race, with plenty of big names in the mix. Ryan Moore had a tough choice when picking between Changingoftheguard and Stone Age, and we feel he may have sided with the wrong horse. Stone Age will no doubt go close though, and Desert Crown will undoubtedly be up there at the finish. But it’s A P O’Brien’s Changingoftheguard who gets our verdict!

  1.  Changingoftheguard
  2.  Stone Age
  3.  Desert Crown

With an honourable mention to Nahanni, who we expect to outrun his price!

*ODDS CORRECT AT TIME OF POSTING – 3pm Friday 3rd June*


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