Thursday’s all-weather tips – Three tips for Chelmsford and Newcastle
Thursday’s All-Weather Tips
Jack Haylett provides readers with his best all-weather tips, selecting three runners at Newcastle and Chelmsford on Thursday 6th February.
It is not often you will see me advising temperamental horses in my all-weather tips with Racing Tips, but I find it very easy to make a case for Spreadsheet (7/2 Paddy Power) in the 4:20. Sent off a well backed favourite on each of his three starts for Roger Varian he failed to get his head in front, and whilst seemingly disappointing those placed efforts represent very strong from in the context of this race.
He has since switched yards and I would not be surprised were he the type to excel in a smaller environment, for all his recent stable debut was slightly underwhelming. I’m hoping however that he just needed that run, as he was notably weak in the market before the race. I expect to see improvement now, and this race looks very winnable – officially rated 80, the selection has 7lbs plus in hand of all his opposition here.
At 3/1 then I think Spreadsheet represents a fair bet, and hope to see him shed the maiden tag now.
Palavecino (11/1 William Hill) looked a very smart prospect when winning on debut in taking fashion, but sadly for connections things have not gone to plan since and he makes just his third career start now. Off the track for 500 days then it is hard to predict just how ready he will be for this, but I certainly think if retaining the ability of old then Palavecino would be a nicely treated horse from his mark of 75.
In winning on debut he actually beat Momkin, whom went on to place in numerous pattern class races and is rated 109 currently, and the form of his second run looks strong also, with five of his six rivals that day achieving ratings over 100. I’m hoping that the strong jockey booking of Luke Morris is indicative that Palevecino is going to be ready enough for this, in which case he would hold outstanding claims.
This is rather a win or bust punt however, as I would not be surprised to see the selection either win this well, or finish out the back of the telly, but at 9/1 I’m happy to take a chance.
I loved the way that Louis Treize (11/4 Ladbrokes) shaped on reappearance just two weeks ago, beaten just a length and a half that day then he is clearly close to a win, and with expected improvement I’d be hopeful of that coming here. The form is beginning to work out also, with the second having won impressively since.
Keen enough that day I felt he did well to hang on as long as he did, but this drop back to the bare 5 furlongs looks ideal now, and if anything this race looks easier. Favourite Heath Charnock looks weighted to about his ability, so whilst sure to run his usual race I’m happy to oppose that one, and recent course and distance winner; Jonboy, will find this a lot tougher.
At 5/2 I think Louis Treze is very fairly priced, to be honest I would be disappointed were he to get beat, I still think he is a sprinter with a fair bit of potential and he can prove a class better than this field.