Thursday’s racing tips – Three horses to back on the all-weather at Lingfield and Chelmsford
All-weather expert, Jack Haylett picks out three horses to back at today’s all-weather meetings from Lingfield and Chelmsford on Thursday 28th November.
Thursday’s All-Weather Tips
Affluence is progressing with every step up in trip he takes at present, and I think the extra 2 furlongs he now gets will help further still. For a low grade animal he seemingly can quicken a lot better than many others running in this class, and I was very taken by his win at Chelmsford last time.
Buried out the back of the field he powered through runners to get up late on, and I expect to see the same again here. He did benefit from a very good ride that day, but the switch back to an apprentice steer now sees him effectively running off a 2lb lower mark than when winning, as his 5lb rise is negated with a 7lb claim.
Clearly the lack of rider experience is a concern, but Affluence is a progressive stayer and I can’t pass him up here. There is very little amongst the opposition that I would be concerned about, so provided Affluence can get the bit of luck he needs with his running style then I expect him to be taking the beating.
I think it is notable that Batchelor Boy was sent off favourite for his sole racecourse appearance so far, for all it would be a concern he has been absent for five months since then. His fifth placed finish that day was clearly not as good as had been expected, but the race has worked out pretty well and even running to a similar level would likely see the selection go close here.
I would be hopeful however that he will improve for that run, as would generally be expected for one from the Marco Botti yard. Being from a good all weather family that includes a group 3 winner on the surface, then he should relish the switch to artificial ground. There does not look to be much depth to this race unless either of the newcomers are smart, so barring a significant market mover I’m happy to take them on.
I liked Moosmee the last day but he disappointed and perhaps his limitations have now been exposed, and instead it may be Kilconquhar to prove the biggest threat to my pick, that said I think Batchelor Boy may just be quite a smart prospect and he can take this en route to better things.
Ivadream had been notably weak at the finish in his first three racecourse starts so it was pleasing to see the way he stayed on when making handicap debut. There are certainly question marks as to how strong that form is, but I would be hopeful he can now take another step forward having learnt a lot last time.
Backing horses second time in low grade handicaps is a particular favourite system of mine as many of these horses are just way outclassed in novices and can improve for being involved in a race they can be competitive in. He remains on the same handicap mark, and I certainly think he can win races from that if racing properly. I’m not sure how much winning this race will take, so with a little luck Ivadream should be bang there at the finish.
Of the field Sweet Serenade is interesting, James Tate has a great record in all weather nurseries, so I’ll be watching that one closely and hoping that today is not her day.