Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends – Day two trends picks

Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends. We look at the statistics for day two and highlight the trends horses.Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends. We look at the statistics for day two and highlight the trends horses.

We take a look over the key Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends for every race and highlights a runner from each contest which could go well – at least according to the statistics.

Following some top-class action on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival we move onto day two where the Queen Mother Champion Chase is the day’s main event. Meanwhile fellow Grade One contests in the shape of the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle, RSA Chase and Champion Bumper all offer solid support.

We take a look over the key day two Cheltenham Festival trends for every race and highlights a runner from each contest which could go well – at least according to the statistics.

1:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f
2:10 – RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m½f
2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f
3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m
4:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m6f
4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo) 2m½f
5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) Cl1 (4-6yo) 2m½f

As with the opening day, we take a look over some of the key Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends which could the way towards a winner – at least according to the historical trends.

1:30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As The Baring Bingham) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f

5 Key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had also won on their previous start;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least two previous hurdles wins;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least twice in the season;
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded race prior to Cheltenham.

Only five of the 12 runners in the field won last time out, and ENVOI ALLEN could prove hard to beat given he is unbeaten to date over hurdles and won here last year in the Champion Bumper. That race has thrown up plenty of winners and the form looks very strong with the likes of Abacadabras, Thyme Hill and others all vanquished in behind.

Gordon Elliott’s charge struck his last two wins in Grade One company and he has looked a top-class performer to date in his wins. The Muhtathir gelding matches all the key trends for the race and can get favourite backers off to the perfect start on Wednesday.

Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends. All the key statistics to find Festival winners.

Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends. Envoi Allen can win the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle.

2:10 – RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m½f

5 Key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one run at Cheltenham previously;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had placed on their previous start;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 7;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had last run no more than 39 days previously;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had at least three starts in the season.

All ten of the intended runners in the race fall short of at least one of the key Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends for this race so it may be worth sticking with one of the last-time out winners where COPPERHEAD meets all the other trends, only failing on the age trend as a six-year old.

Colin Tizzard’s charge has ran four times this term, winning on three occasions which latterly includes in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot last month and that run falls inside the winning window for that particular statistic.

The Reynoldstown is normally a decent trial for this race, throwing up three winners in the past 12 years, of whom two had won that Ascot contest so the Sulamani gelding could give a good account for all this is a step up in grade.

2:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5f

5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had won at least twice over hurdles;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least two runs in the season;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were priced at 12/1 or longer;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had last run less than 80 days previous to Cheltenham;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 6lbs and 11st 6lbs.

Quite a few of the runners meet the key trends, but drilling deeper into those runners whose last run was less than 80 days ago throws up a supplementary stat that five of those had won on their previous start during that time. There’s only three last-time winners in the field, Dame De Compagnie who fails the prices trend, while Cracking Smart has too much weight on the trends.

That leaves the big-priced HONEST VIC who has to raise his game but could go well for Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson. The Kalanisi gelding has won two of his three starts this term, latterly scoring at Kempton over Star Of Lanka.

He had a bit to spare that day so could well improve again and he’s run here before which is another positive so he could outrun his big odds to post a solid run under the champion jockey.

Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends. Honest Vic could be a big-priced winner of the Coral Cup.

Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends. Honest Vic could be a big-priced winner of the Coral Cup.

3:30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m

5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 runs in the season;
  • 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 runs over fences;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one win in the season;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had a previous run at Cheltenham;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won on their previous start.

Altior made the most compelling case on the key trends, but Nicky Henderson’s dual-champion has failed to recover from injury and now doesn’t line up. Next best on the Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends then is DEFI DU SEUIL who also meets all the key trends and is likely to go off favourite for Wednesday’s Champion Chase feature.

Last season’s JLT Novices’ Chase winner was beaten by a fresher Chacun Pour Soi at Punchestown on ground possibly too quick form him last May; but he comes into this rematch having won all three starts which includes the Clarence House Chase.

That race is a good pointer to this contest and with ground ideal he could prove a tough nut to crack where he is backed up by the trends as a likely sort to win this race even if Altior had taken his chance.

4:10 – Glenfarclas Chase (A Cross Country Chase) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m6f

5 key trends to consider

  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 runs over hurdles in their career;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 run over this trip;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had made at least one previous Cheltenham start;
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 of the betting;
  • 8 of the last 12 winners had been nine years old or older.

Defending champion TIGER ROLL is hard to oppose, matching all the key Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends for the Cross-country chase and Gordon Elliott’s charge can make it a hat-trick of wins in the race before taking another crack at the Grand National at Aintree next month.

The Motivator gelding boasts plenty of hurdles experience and has won this race on each of the past two seasons. The market leader will be bidding for his fifth Festival win in all and the ten-year old should be hard to beat.

On the trends he should collect a third win in the race and he ought to be had to beat in this discipline once more.

4:50 – Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Fred Winter) (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo) 2m½f

5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners had at least three previous hurdles starts;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners carried between 10st 6bs and 11st 5lbs;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had a rating between 124 and 134;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least once in the season;
  • 10 of the last 12 winners had run in the previous 32 days prior to Cheltenham.

A few runners in this big field meet the key Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends for this contest and the experience of SAINT D’OROUX could prove crucial with the Saint Des Saints gelding having had five starts over timber.

Gordon Elliott’s charge finished runner-up in France prior to joining the Meath handler and he got off the mark at Gowran Park 25 days ago on his fourth start for the top Irish handler where he romped to a wide-margin victory.

That bare form probably doesn’t amount to much, but there could be more to come from him and it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see him progress again.

Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends. Gordon Elliott could have an excellent second day at the Festival.

Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends. Gordon Elliott could have an excellent second day at the Festival.

5:30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (A Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) (Grade 1) Cl1 (4-6yo) 2m½f

5 key trends to consider

  • 12 of the last 12 winners were rated 118 or higher;
  • 12 of the last 12 winners had at least one run and one win in the season;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years old;
  • 11 of the last 12 winners had at least one run and one win over the Champion Bumper trip;
  • 5 of the last 12 winners were in the top three of the betting;

Willie Mullins has won the Champion Bumper on no less than nine occasions and APPRECIATE IT ticks all the Wednesday Cheltenham Festival trends so could prove hard to beat here.

The Jeremy gelding has raced three times this term, scoring over further at Leopardstown over Christmas and then following up in a Grade Two back there in February.

Partnered here by Patrick Mullins, the father/son combination combined with Champagne Fever, and sure to progress further the market leader looks an ideal type for this contest and he can give Willie Mullins another success in the contest.