Wednesday’s all-weather tips – Three runners to side with at Newcastle today
All-weather expert, Jack Haylett looks through the card at Newcastle today and picks out three horses to back on Wednesday 18th December.
Wednesday’s All-Weather Tips
I think it may be worth giving one more chance to Thaayer in the 3:45. He resumes here having switched yards and undertaken a wind operation, that I’m hoping will spark him back to his best. At his best there is clear case that Thaayer is a very well treated horse, that came when winning a novice over course and distance.
That day he beat Matterhorn, now rated 112, and whilst that horse clearly wasn’t at his best, it was still a fair performance. The pair pulled a further 4 lengths clear of a future handicap winner from a mark of 82 so there was certainly substance to the form, and Thaayer gets to race here from a mark of 73.
Admittedly in three subsequent runs the selection has been nowhere near that level, but at the price available he is worth chancing here, as if Thaayer returns a rejuvenated animal then he could be chucked in from his mark. He is advised as a win only bet in what is a very winnable looking race.
It can be tough in mid-season for novices to concede a winners penalty to a field, but at this time of the year with the races getting weaker then it is very possible, particularly should you have an above average runner to bring to the track. I think that may be what Splendidly is, given the significant impression he made on myself when shedding the maiden tag over course and distance. He travelled well enough for a newcomer, before quickening and wearing down his rivals late on.
That looked a reasonable enough race of its kind also, in fact stronger than what he now returns in I believe. Clearly the extra weight is somewhat of a leveller, but I anticipate significant improvement from the selection, particularly given his trainer Karl Burke often sends his runners to the track in need of their first start.
I’m happy to oppose Xian Express who makes his first start for Mick Appleby yard here, for all his form in Ireland looks solid enough, and behind that runner there does not look too much substance to the race. Splendidly rates as a very confident selection and I would be hopeful he will win this comfortably.
Once rated as high as 84 then Wasntexpectingthat had seemingly lost his way to have dropped too just 65. He appeared to have re-found his form however, when an impressive course and distance victor on last start. He travelled notably well that day, and Newcastle can often suit a runner with that running style, so raised just 6lbs I think there is certainly reason to side with him once more.
That was his first start on the all-weather, and it may be that he is just very well suited to running on the surface. Of the field then I would be wary of Haddaf, who generally keeps better company than this, and Gowanbuster, who is a track specialist and should improve for recent reappearance. That said I think Wasntexpectingthat is the clear stand-out at the prices, and I think he will take a lot of beating here.