Wednesday’s all-weather tips – Three tips for Kempton
Jack Haylett looks through the card at Kempton and provides readers with his all-weather tips on Wednesday 12th February.
Wednesday’s All-Weather Tips
I think the market for the 5:30 is wrong, and the race is a lot more competitive than the market would make you believe. At one time I felt Omnivega would make up into a lovely prospect, but he has had issues and not really progressed as hoped, and if anything he looks a vulnerable favourite here. Admittedly his yard is in flying form, but he is too short, and think the same statement can be made for second favourite Merry Vale.
I have tried to look for a bit of value, and the one I’ve come down on is Mizuki. This filly has shaped with plenty of promise in two hot novice events so far, and this looks a lot more winnable than both of those. In fact you could probably argue this is the first race Mizuki has a realistic winning chance in. Admittedly on third run it would be easy to just get the run into her and get a handicap mark, but I suspect she will be ready enough here, and think she is capable of going close.
At 11/2 there is plenty of juice too her price, and I’m more than happy to take a chance.
Having seemingly been campaigned with handicaps in mind then Bold Suitor made no mistake on first start in that grade, justifying strong support to ultimately win very nicely. The form of that race can be questioned, but the style in which he won suggested he was a very well treated horse. The handicapper has raised him 6lbs for that, but I would be surprised did he not have plenty more in hand, and if looking at this race then whilst in good form most of his opposition are relatively exposed.
Ed Walker has his string in flying form at present, and I think the extra furlong will suit my selection ideally. Of the field then it would be outsider Red Jasper that I see as the biggest threat – he is a bit temperamental and would be pretty hard to predict, but left a good impression in winning two starts back having lost many lengths at the start.
At 9/4 however then I think Bold Suitor is certainly the one to be on, and I would be disappointed were he beaten.
There looks to be one very interesting runner in the 7:30; Outlane. Clearly this is a filly that has had issues, as she resumes here following 536 days off the track, but often it is first time back that is the time to catch one with problems, and I would hope this mare will be ready enough for return. I’m sure the plan for connections will be to get her to win a race as she is a nicely bred daughter of Camelot, and is still owned by her original breeders.
This mare certainly showed enough prior to her absence to think winning from her now mark of 72 (dropped 4lbs for absence) would be very possible. If anything, she just looked a bit one paced, so the 2-mile trip she now faces looks ideal. At 15/2 I think she is the value play in the field, and have advised backing each way.