August 09 / 19.12 Ayr

19.12

Good

Paul’s 50th Celebration Handicap

  • Prize money: £4710.6
  • 0m 6f 0y
  • Class 6
  • 8 runners
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Paul’s 50th Celebration Handicap

Runners: 8 runners

Type: Flat Turf

Surface: Turf

Weather: Rain

Form: 044376 D

Last run: 17 days

W: 9st 13lb

4 yo Colt

OR: 64

Form & Verdict
Irish raider; 0-18 on turf as opposed to 3-17 on AW but he's effective on turf and he will find this less demanding than the big-field sprints he has been contesting in Ireland this summer; unlikely to be far away.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

5th

2

(7)

26th May 2026

Standard

0m 5f 0y

18:48 Dundalk (AW)

Clonmacash

10st 0lb

J: Gabriella Hill

T: Adrian McGuinness

Behind Buddy Batt and Lethimfly here in March but later posted a career-best RPR when winning over 6f back here in April and can be forgiven his subsequent defeat at Chester; hard to leave out of calculations.

7/1

9th

4

(1)

8th May 2026

Good

0m 6f 17y

Class 4

15:40 Chester

Clonmacash

9st 7lb

J: Adam Caffrey

T: Adrian McGuinness

Fully exposed 5yo but he recorded the best RPR of his 50-race career when winning at Dundalk last month (6f); while effective on turf, he looks high enough in the weights now returning to grass; well drawn but others appeal more for win purposes.

14/1

8th
1 (8)
Mersea

9/4

Form: 705201 D

Last run: 8 days

W: 10st 5lb

5 yo Filly

OR: 70

Form & Verdict
Sent off at 2-5 when winning a weak Class 6 handicap at Musselburgh eight days ago (5f, good); 5lb higher today but still well treated and Jack Callan takes off 7lb; obvious claims.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

6th

8

(7)

14th Feb 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

16:55 Newcastle (AW)

Mersea

9st 3lb

J: Oliver Stammers

T: Grant Tuer

50-1 winner over C&D off 11lb higher in February last year; back on a good mark but hasn't been in top form recently.

25/1

7th

3

(2)

4th Feb 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

17:00 Newcastle (AW)

Mersea

9st 8lb

J: Oliver Stammers

T: Grant Tuer

Well short of her best this winter but that is reflected in her mark and she has too much ability to discount now dropping into a 0-60; betting should be revealing.

12/1

11th

8

(10)

20th Jan 2026

Standard

0m 5f 0y

Class 5

16:13 Newcastle (AW)

Mersea

9st 0lb

J: Sean Kirrane

T: Grant Tuer

Backwards since winning at Musselburgh (5f, Class 6, good) in August; kept on from behind to finish fifth of ten at Southwell (5f; 33-1) a fortnight ago; the handicapper continues to give her assistance from a career-low mark.

20/1

OUR TIP

Form: 313415 D BF

Last run: 7 days

W: 9st 13lb

4 yo Colt

OR: 64

Form & Verdict
Three wins this year, the latest a comfortable success at Doncaster last month (6f, good to soft); found out by an 8lb rise back at Doncaster last week but the return to Class 6 will help.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

3rd

2

(4)

3rd Jun 2026

Good

0m 6f 18y

Class 6

17:18 Nottingham

Ishe Worth Agamble

9st 9lb

J: Sean Kirrane

T: Tim Easterby

Won three times last season, the most recent coming at Doncaster (6f, good to soft) in July; respectable third over this C&D on his return in April and kept on for fifth of 11 at Redcar (6f, good) 16 days ago; contender if things drop right.

4/1

5th

8

(4)

18th May 2026

Good

0m 5f 217y

Class 6

15:40 Redcar

Ishe Worth Agamble

9st 6lb

J: David Allan

T: Tim Easterby

Made good progress last season, collecting three 6f wins along the way; just a respectable third of seven when back on turf last month, after a break, but might come on for the run and remains on a good mark.

12/1

3rd

4

(1)

26th Apr 2026

Good

0m 6f 18y

Class 6

15:20 Nottingham

Ishe Worth Agamble

9st 5lb

J: Ben Robinson

T: Tim Easterby

Absent since a defeat 100 days ago that took his AW record to 0-5; three-time turf winner and ran well at Leicester on most recent attempt in this sphere; returns to a favourable scenario.

8/1

Form: -87058

Last run: 17 days

W: 9st 9lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 64

Form & Verdict
Ten-race maiden; dropped 14lb in the weights since April; not without risk but a return to prominent tactics now down in trip and class could bear fruit.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

148

19th Sep 2025

0m 6f 0y

Class 2

15:40 Ayr

Defence Missile

7st 12lb

T: Linda Perratt

5

(6)

9th Aug 2025

Good

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

19:12 Ayr

Defence Missile

9st 9lb

J: Kaiya Fraser

T: Linda Perratt

Ten-race maiden; dropped 14lb in the weights since April; not without risk but a return to prominent tactics now down in trip and class could bear fruit.

20/1

8th

10

(8)

23rd Jul 2025

Soft

0m 7f 6y

Class 5

20:30 Doncaster

Defence Missile

9st 5lb

J: Tommie Jakes

T: Linda Perratt

Last month's fifth at Ayr (7f, good) was his best run for a while and he continues to drop down the weights, but he needs to build on that latest performance if he's to get off the mark today at the tenth attempt.

25/1

Form: -07017 C

Last run: 19 days

W: 9st 8lb

4 yo Colt

OR: 59

Form & Verdict
Well backed when exploiting his reduced mark in a 7f handicap here last month; raced freely when disappointing back here 19 days ago; still feasibly weighted and he has the pace to cope with 6f; stable also run Thunderstorm Katie.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

6th

3

(1)

30th Mar 2026

Standard

0m 6f 20y

Class 6

17:30 Wolverhampton (AW)

Spun To Gold

11st 1lb

J: Mr Henry Callan

T: Jim Goldie

Four wins last year, three on AW (6f/7f); some fair form since but has a bit to find with Instant Bond on recent form at Newcastle (6f); 4lb lower than last winning mark; first run here.

11/2

5th

7

(7)

21st Mar 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

20:30 Newcastle (AW)

Spun To Gold

9st 4lb

J: Shay Farmer

T: Jim Goldie

Dual C&D winner who is on a dangerous mark and he didn't get much luck when third here (6f) last Thursday; could be a big factor if things go more to plan this time and his last three wins have been on Tapeta.

5/1

3rd

8

(3)

12th Mar 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

15:48 Newcastle (AW)

Spun To Gold

9st 0lb

J: Lauren Young

T: Jim Goldie

Dual C&D winner for Lauren Young, who's back up today, last autumn, latterly off a 2lb higher mark; expensive to follow since but won't mind coming back down from 7f and a case could be made.

7/1

Form: -56688 D

Last run: 19 days

W: 9st 3lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 58

Form & Verdict
Won twice on the AW at Newcastle as a 2yo; yet to get going this year but she's dropped 10lb in the weights and is likely to bounce back at some point.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

5th

8

(6)

4th Feb 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

17:00 Newcastle (AW)

Laurens Dream

8st 13lb

J: Joanna Mason

T: Michael & David Easterby

Both her wins have come at Newcastle (6f and 7f); she has finished second in 7f classified events on her last three starts but she will need to raise her game to take this; the return to Newcastle and switch to blinkers could spark extra though.

5/1

2nd

5

(6)

22nd Jan 2026

Standard

0m 7f 14y

Class 6

15:25 Southwell (AW)

Laurens Dream

9st 9lb

J: Joanna Mason

T: Michael & David Easterby

Losing run stands at 18 but she has run well in 7f classified events on Tapeta on her last two starts, the latest here last week; strong claims in this field.

2/1

14

(14)

27th Oct 2025

Good To Soft

0m 5f 217y

Class 6

16:20 Redcar

Laurens Dream

9st 2lb

J: Mikkel Mortensen

T: Michael & David Easterby

Gained both wins on Newcastle AW last November; 0-12 on turf but has frame possibilities on some of her recent form; drop back to Class 6 looks a plus.

12/1

Form: 745841 CD

Last run: 12 days

W: 8st 11lb

4 yo Filly

OR: 48

Form & Verdict
Had wind surgery in June (second such operation) and she has returned with two good C&D runs, gaining her first success in a similar event 12 days ago; only 2lb higher and she's one to consider.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

8

(1)

20th May 2026

Good To Firm

0m 5f 0y

Class 5

15:12 Ayr

Thunderstorm Katie

8st 13lb

J: Lauren Young

T: Jim Goldie

Dual course winner (6f) who also notched back-to-back victories at Musselburgh and Newcastle (both 5f) last October; ran her best race since - flashed home after fluffing the start - at Hamilton on Friday evening; sits 1lb lower, and also has the excellent Lauren Young claiming 5lb.

5/2

2nd

4

(3)

15th May 2026

Good

0m 5f 7y

Class 6

17:30 Hamilton

Thunderstorm Katie

9st 9lb

J: William Pyle

T: Jim Goldie

Scored five times, including over C&D, last year; made some late headway back here last time on return from break and may be back in top form with that outing under her belt.

10/1

50/1

Form: 797005

Last run: 8 days

W: 8st 9lb

4 yo Gelding

OR: 45

Form & Verdict
Unplaced in eight starts and hard to recommend on what he has shown in handicaps.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

13

(14)

1st Sep 2025

Good

0m 5f 0y

Class 6

15:30 Carlisle

Heritor

9st 0lb

J: Rhys Elliott

T: R Mike Smith

Nine-race maiden who has not finished closer than 7l to a winner including in six handicaps; passed over.

50/1

10

(10)

9th Aug 2025

Good

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

19:12 Ayr

Heritor

8st 9lb

J: Rhys Elliott

T: R Mike Smith

Unplaced in eight starts and hard to recommend on what he has shown in handicaps.

50/1

5

(7)

1st Aug 2025

Good

0m 5f 1y

Class 6

20:50 Musselburgh

Heritor

8st 9lb

J: Rhys Elliott

T: R Mike Smith

Looks a poor maiden and he beat just two in 6f Ayr handicap 11 days ago; cheekpieces are reached for now and a tongue-tie is also refitted.

20/1

Non-runners

Annie Edson Taylor, Ramon Di Loria

+o+e Accumulators

Payout
Exacta £11.20
Straight Forecast £9.47
Tricast £65.40
Trifecta £56.10

Selections

The Guardian:

Thunderstorm Katie

RP RATINGS:

Annie Edson Taylor

POSTDATA:

Defence Missile

SPOTLIGHT:

Mersea

Telegraph:

Ishe Worth Agamble

Daily Mail:

Ramon Di Loria

The Star:

Thunderstorm Katie

Daily Record:

Thunderstorm Katie

D Express:

Defence Missile

The Times:

Annie Edson Taylor

Daily Mirror:

Annie Edson Taylor

The Sun:

Mersea