January 17 / 17.00 Southwell (AW)

17.00

Standard

Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap

  • Prize money: £4396.56
  • 1m 0f 13y
  • Class 5
  • 12 runners
SKY
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Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap

Runners: 12 runners

Type: Flat AW

Surface: Tapeta

Weather: Cloudy

25/1 (Won)

  • Win: £34.50
  • Place: £8.30

Form: 7907-8 CD

Last run: 15 days

W: 9st 5lb

7 yo Gelding

OR: 66

Form & Verdict
Triple course winner who scored at Nottingham (8.3f) in July but he's been out of sorts since then including in two runs this winter; has plenty to prove and he's a frequent slow starter.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

9th

10

(2)

31st Aug 2026

Standard

1m 0f 13y

Class 6

15:17 Southwell (AW)

Soames Forsyte

9st 4lb

J: Tom Eaves

T: Michael Herrington

Four-time course winner who'll be happier back on Tapeta; now 6lb lower than when going in over C&D early in the year but needs a revival.

20/1

5th

6

(6)

5th Aug 2026

Good To Firm

1m 0f 6y

Class 5

15:45 Pontefract

Soames Forsyte

8st 11lb

J: Dylan Hogan

T: Michael Herrington

Has had more AW than turf success; has gained both wins in this sphere at Nottingham (8.5f on good/good to soft); only midfield when returned to grass last time; others have stronger claims.

7/1

6th

2

(2)

15th Jun 2026

Good To Soft

0m 7f 173y

Class 6

15:50 Carlisle

Soames Forsyte

9st 9lb

J: Oisin Orr

T: Michael Herrington

Popped up at Southwell (1m) off a 2lb higher mark in January; the odd good run since but he needs to bounce back from a lacklustre AW run last month.

14/1

9/1

  • Place: £3.50

Form: 2134-5 D

Last run: 15 days

W: 9st 8lb

7 yo Gelding

OR: 69

Form & Verdict
Seven-time AW winner who is only 1lb higher than when scoring at Wolverhampton (8.6f) in November; didn't fire at that track two weeks ago but that was against a pace bias and he's a player if this sets up for his closing style.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4th

8

(2)

25th Aug 2026

Standard

1m 0f 1y

Class 5

14:30 Lingfield (AW)

Ernies Valentine

9st 4lb

J: Alfie Redman

T: Ross Burdon

Seven of his eight wins have been on the AW, the most recent coming at Wolverhampton (8.5f) last November off a 3lb higher mark; shaped as if in form when seventh of 12 there in a 0-80 in March but he's been absent since; considered.

10/1

7th

12

(9)

30th Mar 2026

Standard

1m 1f 104y

Class 4

18:30 Wolverhampton (AW)

Ernies Valentine

8st 10lb

J: Phoebe Edwards

T: Ross Burdon

Seven wins on the AW; consistent in the main and ran okay over the 8.6f here ten days ago, leaving the impression that this longer trip is worth another go.

14/1

4th

3

(5)

20th Mar 2026

Standard

1m 0f 142y

Class 5

18:30 Wolverhampton (AW)

Ernies Valentine

9st 8lb

J: Jack Mitchell

T: Ross Burdon

Seven times an AW winner, twice over C&D; back to his last winning mark and Jack Mitchell takes over from a 7lb claimer; one to take seriously.

4/1

OUR TIP

5/1

  • Place: £2.10

Form: 32305-

Last run: 20 days

W: 9st 9lb

5 yo Gelding

OR: 70

Form & Verdict
Well handicapped on his best form and he ran respectably in a C&D novice three weeks ago but he's now 0-14 and has been beaten at 5-1 or shorter on 11 occasions; others looks stronger.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

5th

2

(6)

1st Sep 2026

Standard

1m 0f 142y

Class 5

17:45 Wolverhampton (AW)

Forest Caper

9st 10lb

J: Cieren Fallon

T: David O’Meara

0-19 but has been placed ten times; returns from a break and is down to a career-low mark; hood worn on recent starts is left off; more exposed than the opposition and vulnerable to an improver.

13/2

10th

10

(2)

24th Feb 2026

Standard

1m 0f 13y

Class 5

15:55 Southwell (AW)

Forest Caper

9st 4lb

J: Jason Watson

T: David O’Meara

0-18 but has shown ability as when second of nine at Newcastle (1m2f, Tapeta) ten days ago; return to this trip not a problem and he holds each-way claims again.

7/1

2nd

1

(4)

14th Feb 2026

Standard

1m 2f 42y

Class 5

16:25 Newcastle (AW)

Forest Caper

9st 9lb

J: Jason Hart

T: David O’Meara

0-17 but he got right back on track when fourth of 11 in 1m Southwell handicap nine days ago, doing best of those held up off a steady pace; he's effective at this longer trip and is one for the shortlist.

6/1

Form: 73694- D

Last run: 33 days

W: 9st 4lb

6 yo Gelding

OR: 65

Form & Verdict
Often harms his chance by racing too freely, as was the case at Wolverhampton last month, but won three in a row over 1m on turf last June and is well handicapped on some of his subsequent placed form (including on Tapeta); eyeshields added.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

3rd

6

(9)

27th Aug 2026

Standard

0m 7f 14y

Class 6

18:00 Southwell (AW)

Beaming Light

9st 7lb

J: William Pyle

T: David Loughnane

Completed a hat-trick over 1m on turf/Polytrack in June last year, but those are his only victories in 34 starts; 9lb lower than for the latest, but others still look more compelling; eyeshield removed.

8/1

7th

8

(5)

30th Jul 2026

Standard

0m 7f 36y

Class 6

20:07 Wolverhampton (AW)

Beaming Light

9st 8lb

J: William Pyle

T: David Loughnane

All three wins have been over 1m; went close here over 8.5f in February and kept on into fourth (behind Cooramook) after missing the break over C&D last time; will need things to drop right given his hold-up style.

14/1

4th

7

(9)

14th Jul 2026

Standard

0m 7f 36y

Class 6

19:25 Wolverhampton (AW)

Beaming Light

9st 6lb

J: Thomas Greatrex

T: David Loughnane

1m turf winner (soft/good to firm) who is 1-16 on AW (won over 1m on Polytrack); unexposed over 7f but to have a serious chance he'll need to raise the bar based on his last four starts.

40/1

Form: 69327- CD

Last run: 29 days

W: 9st 0lb

8 yo Gelding

OR: 61

Form & Verdict
First three wins were on turf but last three have been on Tapeta; didn't fire at Newcastle last month but that was after a short break and he's now 1lb lower than for his last win; dangerous if he can rediscover his spark.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

5th

2

(3)

2nd Sep 2026

Standard

1m 0f 5y

Class 6

17:15 Newcastle (AW)

Mercurius Power

9st 8lb

J: Jack Dace

T: Jessica Macey

Winless since August 2024 but he comes here on the back of a good second of 12 over C&D in July; this C&D scorer must enter calculations nudged up 1lb.

4/1

2nd

6

(12)

25th Jul 2026

Standard To Slow

1m 0f 5y

Class 6

16:35 Newcastle (AW)

Mercurius Power

9st 6lb

J: Rhys Elliott

T: Jessica Macey

Getting on for two years since his last win but this C&D winner has dropped to a tempting mark and he didn't run badly in a stronger race at Doncaster (1m, good to soft) six weeks ago; apprentice takes off a handy 5lb too; high on the list.

6/1

Form: 16146- D

Last run: 30 days

W: 9st 8lb

8 yo Gelding

OR: 69

Form & Verdict
Has patchy profile but he put in a dominant display at Kempton (1m) in October and he had some traffic issues in the closing stages when a respectable sixth over C&D last time; still looks on a workable mark and it wouldn't be a surprise if he made a bold bid.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

11th

8

(11)

20th Aug 2026

Standard

0m 7f 1y

Class 5

15:55 Lingfield (AW)

Double Time

9st 7lb

J: Callum Hutchinson

T: Tim Vaughan

Front-runner whose most recent win was at Kempton (1m, AW) last October off 1lb lower; not so good in his only four races since; absent 187 days before his last of 12 at Sandown four weeks ago, so he's a touch speculative this time.

20/1

12th

3

(5)

23rd Jul 2026

Good To Firm

1m 0f 0y

Class 5

17:17 Sandown

Double Time

10st 1lb

J: Callum Hutchinson

T: Tim Vaughan

Front-runner who won at Kempton (1m, AW) last October; however, this 8yo wasn't at the top of his game at Southwell (1m, AW) in January and he may improve for this first outing since.

16/1

20/1

Form: 51679-

Last run: 37 days

W: 9st 2lb

5 yo Gelding

OR: 63

Form & Verdict
Both wins have come over 7f but he's effective at 1m; looks feasibly treated on his Kempton win last May but he's struggled in three subsequent runs including when last of nine at Chelmsford last month; plenty to prove.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

4

(4)

25th Aug 2026

Standard

1m 0f 1y

Class 5

14:30 Lingfield (AW)

Havana Touch

9st 10lb

J: Conor Whiteley

T: John Butler

All four wins have been on the AW, the last three at Kempton, most recently over 1m in June when last seen off a 4lb lower mark; went close here over 7f in April and can be competitive on his return from a 76-day break.

11/4

1st

12

(8)

10th Jun 2026

Standard To Slow

1m 0f 0y

Class 5

18:40 Kempton (AW)

Havana Touch

9st 1lb

J: David Egan

T: John Butler

Justified favouritism in a C&D handicap in April off 5lb lower; beaten a nose at Lingfield later that month and then met trouble in running at Ripon last week; should remain competitive.

8/1

6th

4

(2)

3rd Jun 2026

Good

1m 0f 0y

Class 5

19:10 Ripon

Havana Touch

9st 6lb

J: Connor Beasley

T: John Butler

5yo who was in top form on AW in the spring, with a win at Kempton (1m) being sandwiched by two seconds; showed some promise in May 2024 when he last raced on turf; key player if transferring good form back to grass.

7/1

Form: 608-45

Last run: 6 days

W: 8st 12lb

5 yo Gelding

OR: 59

Form & Verdict
Sole win was on turf in August 2024 but he's only been beaten around 2l at Newcastle and Chelmsford (both at 1m) in last two runs; has possibilities if he can find something extra and he's not ruled out.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4th

10

(1)

24th Aug 2026

Good

1m 0f 208y

Class 5

15:15 Musselburgh

Miners Gamble

8st 10lb

J: Mikey Sheehy

T: Brian Ellison

C&D winner off 7lb higher in August 2024; mixed form since but sound run when third over C&D (good; second run after wind op, first with a tongue-tie) 17 days ago; has a chance on that run.

8/1

3rd

5

(6)

7th Aug 2026

Good

1m 0f 208y

Class 6

13:50 Musselburgh

Miners Gamble

9st 3lb

J: Luke Morris

T: Brian Ellison

Regressive 5yo with modest 1-27 strike-rate; seemed to have benefited from wind op when respectable fifth of 12 at Newcastle (1m, AW) last month but that race was slowly run and he needs to build on that performance; tongue-tie now added.

4/1

5th

5

(10)

25th Jul 2026

Standard To Slow

1m 0f 5y

Class 6

16:35 Newcastle (AW)

Miners Gamble

9st 6lb

J: Ben Robinson

T: Brian Ellison

Just one win to his name from 26 starts; lacklustre effort here (6f) last month and underwent wind surgery four days later; handy mark if the operation has the desired effect.

8/1

Form: 623-3

Last run: 15 days

W: 9st 5lb

4 yo Gelding

OR: 66

Form & Verdict
Unexposed 4yo who went close in a Wolverhampton maiden (7f) last month and was a creditable third on handicap debut there two weeks ago; this is a deeper race but that was another step forward last time and he's open to more progress at this new trip.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

7th

6

(3)

26th Jun 2026

Good To Firm

0m 7f 6y

Class 5

11:45 Doncaster

Al Hofzan

9st 4lb

J: Darragh Keenan

T: Georgina Nicholls

Has largely consistent form, close fourth at Leicester (7f) most recently; however, he's the only maiden in this field and chance of winning partly depends on the effects of added tongue-tie.

6/1

4th

6

(7)

9th May 2026

Good To Firm

0m 7f 0y

Class 5

19:25 Leicester

Al Hofzan

9st 5lb

J: Gina Mangan

T: Georgina Nicholls

Is 0-9 but he comes here in decent nick, fifth of nine in 6f handicap here 26 days ago; in the mix back up to 7f now.

11/1

5th

9

(7)

13th Apr 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

15:52 Leicester

Al Hofzan

9st 1lb

J: Harry Vigors

T: Georgina Nicholls

Couple of decent efforts under aggressive Harry Vigors rides in 7.2f Wolverhampton handicaps since the cheekpieces went on; first crack at sprinting on his turf debut and is one to consider.

4/1

Form: 21710- CD

Last run: 18 days

W: 9st 9lb

10 yo Gelding

OR: 70

Form & Verdict
Recorded his 12th AW win when scoring at Wolverhampton (8.6f) last month but he flopped under a penalty there eight days later; has bit to prove again after that heavy defeat but he has won three of his last seven starts and is capable of bouncing back.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

11th

1

(10)

17th Jan 2026

Standard

1m 0f 13y

Class 5

17:00 Southwell (AW)

Love Your Work

9st 9lb

J: Kieran O’Neill

T: Darryll Holland

Recorded his 12th AW win when scoring at Wolverhampton (8.6f) last month but he flopped under a penalty there eight days later; has bit to prove again after that heavy defeat but he has won three of his last seven starts and is capable of bouncing back.

10/1

10

(2)

22nd Oct 2025

Standard To Slow

1m 0f 0y

Class 5

18:40 Kempton (AW)

Love Your Work

9st 8lb

J: Hector Crouch

T: Darryll Holland

Beat a serial loser of late over C&D three weeks ago, taking Hector Crouch's record on him to 2-2; 4lb rise is of no great concern considering he's been rated much higher in the past; handy draw.

5/1

1st

1

(6)

1st Oct 2025

Standard To Slow

1m 0f 0y

Class 6

19:30 Kempton (AW)

Love Your Work

9st 9lb

J: Hector Crouch

T: Darryll Holland

Nine of his 12 wins have been on AW, the latest from 5lb higher at Chelmsford (1m, Polytrack) in March; not beaten far into fourth of 13 at Brighton (1m, soft) last month and he has to be of interest in this field.

4/1

33/1

Form: 9066-0

Last run: 7 days

W: 9st 4lb

4 yo Colt

OR: 65

Form & Verdict
Won a 7f novice at Catterick last May but he's been disappointing since and has finished tailed off in both runs this winter; still lightly raced and mark is tumbling but he needs a big turnaround.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

5

(2)

29th Jun 2026

Good

1m 0f 6y

Class 6

17:30 Pontefract

Far Ahead

9st 6lb

J: Oisin Orr

T: Richard & Peter Fahey

Novice winner who is 0-12 in handicaps but has shown positive signs with second-place finishes at Beverley (behind Anificas Beauty on worse terms) and Hamilton the last twice, despite taking a good hold both times; possibilities, especially if settling better.

7/2

2nd

5

(4)

17th Jun 2026

Good To Soft

1m 1f 35y

Class 6

14:15 Hamilton

Far Ahead

9st 4lb

J: Warren Fentiman

T: Richard & Peter Fahey

Only win so far was in a Catterick novice in May 2025 (7f, good to firm); best run this term when second at Beverley last time (8.5f, good to firm); a possible.

4/1

2nd

11

(4)

30th May 2026

Good To Firm

1m 0f 100y

Class 6

17:08 Beverley

Far Ahead

9st 0lb

J: Shane Gray

T: Richard & Peter Fahey

Largely out of sorts this season, beating just two in 1m Ripon handicap last time; not easy to make a case for.

16/1

Form: 58306- D

Last run: 37 days

W: 9st 6lb

6 yo Gelding

OR: 67

Form & Verdict
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

7th

1

(9)

24th Feb 2024

Standard

1m 0f 13y

Class 4

17:35 Southwell (AW)

Terries Royale

10st 2lb

J: Sean Kirrane

T: Michael Appleby

Half-brother to six winners including Sakhee's Return (5.8f-7f including 2yo; RPR 93), Jackpot Royale (7f-1m; 91), Be Royale (6f-8.6f including AW; 79), Queens Royale (7f AW; 75) and Must Be Royale (7f AW; 70); once-raced dam (56) out of 1m Group 3 winner; family has won plenty of races for the yard, but stable only has the occasional winning newcomer; watch market.

16/1

+o+e Accumulators

Payout
Exacta £290.60
Straight Forecast £234.27
Tricast £1337.89
Trifecta £2557.90

Selections

SPOTLIGHT:

Al Hofzan

POSTDATA:

Ernie's Valentine

RP RATINGS:

Double Time

Telegraph:

Terries Royale

Daily Mirror:

Forest Caper

TOPSPEED:

Havana Touch

Daily Mail:

Love Your Work

The Times:

Al Hofzan

D Express:

Al Hofzan

The Star:

Al Hofzan

Daily Record:

Al Hofzan

The Sun:

Double Time

NEWMARKET:

Ernie's Valentine

The Guardian:

Ernie's Valentine