February 25 / 20.10 Kempton (AW)

20.10

Standard To Slow

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  • Prize money: £4187.2
  • 0m 6f 0y
  • Class 5
  • 7 runners
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Runners: 7 runners

Type: Flat AW

Surface: Polytrack

Weather: Partly cloudy

5/2 (Won)

  • Win: £2.63
  • Place: £1.60

Form: 123-11 D

Last run: 11 days

W: 9st 7lb

5 yo Colt

OR: 73

Form & Verdict
Won three classifieds (one was a dead-heat) and three handicaps in just over a year; came from last place at the top of the straight to win going away at Lingfield last time; can't dismiss with 7lb rise justified.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

9th

10

(12)

27th Jun 2026

Good

0m 6f 12y

Class 4

18:15 Windsor

Combustion

9st 6lb

J: Joey Haynes

T: Chelsea Banham

Improving type who completed a 6f AW hat-trick at Lingfield this winter; just his second run on turf when last of 17 in 5f Ascot handicap last month, but poorly drawn there and not out of things.

25/1

17th

13

(1)

1st May 2026

Good To Firm

0m 5f 0y

Class 4

16:20 Ascot

Combustion

9st 1lb

J: Joey Haynes

T: Chelsea Banham

His first three starts saw him well beaten over 7f but he has not looked back since dropped to 6f, winning seven times and placed on his other three runs; could only manage second at Chelmsford five weeks ago but the horse to beat him is now rated 17lb higher and that shouldn't be used as evidence he is in the handicapper's grip; more to prove back on turf and at a new trip but few arrive in better form.

8/1

2nd

7

(5)

26th Mar 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

18:00 Chelmsford (AW)

Combustion

9st 6lb

J: Joey Haynes

T: Chelsea Banham

Justified favouritism in Class 5 event at Kempton last time, taking record this year to 3-3 and overall strike-rate over 6f on AW to 7-9; he is 1-1 at Chelmsford; progressive sort who brings excellent stats and commands respect upped further in grade.

5/2

10/1

  • Place: £2.30

Form: 570-16 CD

Last run: 18 days

W: 9st 5lb

5 yo Colt

OR: 71

Form & Verdict
Second win for Tony Carroll came when beating the strong favourite in refitted cheekpieces over C&D last month; couldn't sustain his effort over 7f at Lingfield subsequently but he's not discounted back sprinting here.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

1

(3)

1st Sep 2026

Good

0m 6f 210y

Class 5

18:45 Brighton

Serenity Dream

10st 0lb

J: Jack Doughty

T: Tony Carroll

Reliable 5yo who was too strong for Dion Baker here last month and now bids for a hat-trick off 4lb higher; solid chance.

6/4

1st

4

(6)

6th Aug 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 210y

Class 5

17:30 Brighton

Serenity Dream

9st 4lb

J: Jack Doughty

T: Tony Carroll

Fairly reliable 5yo who kept on well for narrow success at Chepstow (6f, good to firm) three weeks ago; subsequent 2lb rise is manageable and this longer trip also suits; probably won't be far away.

3/1

1st

1

(1)

16th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 16y

Class 5

17:00 Chepstow

Serenity Dream

9st 9lb

J: Billy Loughnane

T: Tony Carroll

Won a 6f handicap at Kempton in January and he has run several good races since, notably a narrow defeat back at Kempton two weeks ago; Billy Loughnane retains the ride; as this 5yo showed at Ascot in May, he's a strong contender back on fast turf.

5/2

Form: 236-45 D

Last run: 14 days

W: 9st 4lb

6 yo Gelding

OR: 70

Form & Verdict
All six wins came on AW in 2025; caught the eye both starts this time around (finished behind Em Four latest) and is back on his last winning mark now; trainer red hot; chance may hinge on how well Callum Shepherd, who has done a good job in the past, can settle him.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

6th

10

(11)

31st Aug 2026

Standard

0m 6f 16y

Class 5

17:00 Southwell (AW)

Jesse Luc

9st 3lb

J: Callum Shepherd

T: Mike Murphy

Hold-up sprinter who boasts a good record over C&D; things haven't panned out his way in a couple of runs since wind surgery but he's well treated now and quite capable if things fall right.

10/1

7th

6

(3)

6th Aug 2026

Standard

0m 6f 16y

Class 5

19:51 Southwell (AW)

Jesse Luc

9st 5lb

J: Luke Morris

T: Mike Murphy

Beaten on his last 12 starts and only sixth at Wolverhampton last month, but he was returning from a break and was slowly away; could be sharper for that latest outing and he ran well in third over C&D in April; this three-time C&D winner is capable of having a big say.

9/2

6th

5

(11)

6th Jul 2026

Standard

0m 6f 20y

Class 5

19:30 Wolverhampton (AW)

Jesse Luc

9st 7lb

J: Rob Hornby

T: Mike Murphy

All six wins have been at 6f on AW; consistent sort who ran his usual game race when third of eight at Southwell (6f) in April; has had wind surgery since and must be of interest if it sparks any improvement.

13/2

Form: 6964-1 D

Last run: 27 days

W: 9st 7lb

5 yo Colt

OR: 73

Form & Verdict
Fourth AW win came in quite a messy race at Lingfield 27 days ago; up 3lb; passed over given underwhelming form at this track.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4th

4

(1)

2nd Jul 2026

Standard To Slow

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

20:53 Kempton (AW)

Invincible Speed

9st 9lb

J: Ray Dawson

T: Mark Loughnane

Four-time AW winner, most recently at Lingfield (6f) in January off the same mark as today's; left the impression he's still in form on soft ground at Salisbury 23 days ago and has place claims back on the AW.

8/1

5th

5

(11)

9th Jun 2026

Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

15:18 Salisbury

Invincible Speed

9st 5lb

J: Billy Loughnane

T: Mark Loughnane

All four wins have been on the AW but he does act on turf; beaten 4l when second of five at Lingfield (6f, good to firm) ten days ago but soft ground would be a slight concern.

8/1

2nd

3

(3)

30th May 2026

Good

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

20:42 Lingfield

Invincible Speed

9st 8lb

J: Jack Dace

T: Mark Loughnane

Consistent gelding who's usually ridden from off the pace; no obvious reason why he won't go well once more, back over an easier 6f, returning from a short break.

5/1

OUR TIP

9/2

Form: -15273 D

Last run: 14 days

W: 9st 7lb

4 yo Colt

OR: 73

Form & Verdict
Overcame some early scrimmaging to score under Conor Whiteley at Chelmsford last month and got close to that level in two of his four runs since; has twice made all and there isn't much pace on paper here.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

5th

1

(5)

31st Aug 2026

Good To Soft

0m 6f 3y

Class 5

13:50 Epsom

Em Four

10st 0lb

J: Saffie Osborne

T: Jamie Osborne

Prominent racer; arrives on the back of a Brighton win (5.3f, good to firm) last week, form boosted by the runner-up's win on Friday; took this race 12 months ago off a 7lb lower mark; lots to like but the suitability of ground slower than good is still to be proven.

7/2

1st

1

(5)

24th Aug 2026

Good

0m 5f 60y

Class 5

14:30 Brighton

Em Four

9st 9lb

J: Saffie Osborne

T: Jamie Osborne

Back on his last successful mark (AW) and wins at Epsom and Chepstow (both on good ground) last summer suggest today's course should be fine; won't mind the return to 5f, either, having been pestered in front last time, and is one to consider.

7/1

5th

5

(3)

20th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 12y

Class 4

19:20 Windsor

Em Four

9st 10lb

J: Saffie Osborne

T: Jamie Osborne

Two turf wins last summer and three AW wins this year, the latest at Wolverhampton in April; ran well when third of five at Salisbury next time but three lesser runs have followed and he needs to raise his game.

12/1

Form: 846-56 CD

Last run: 11 days

W: 9st 1lb

4 yo Colt

OR: 67

Form & Verdict
Dropping back to 5f at Lingfield 11 days ago wouldn't have suited but was no match for Em Four at Chelmsford the time before; opposable.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

7th

5

(10)

23rd Jul 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

19:05 Newbury

Distant Rumble

9st 11lb

J: Joe Leavy

T: Roger Teal

Sightly disappointing after sluggish start at Newmarket this month but returned to turf with three good runs this spring, the most notable a win at Windsor (6f, good to firm) on second occasion; features prominently in calculations.

6/1

7th

10

(2)

4th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

15:50 Newmarket (July)

Distant Rumble

8st 13lb

J: Jason Watson

T: Roger Teal

In good form since returning from a break, winning at Windsor (6f, good to firm) in May before close third at Salisbury (6f, soft); there's still mileage in his mark on his old form and he could be in the shake-up.

10/1

3rd

6

(3)

9th Jun 2026

Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

15:18 Salisbury

Distant Rumble

9st 4lb

J: Oisin Murphy

T: Roger Teal

Unraced on soft; runner-up over this C&D last month before going on better at Windsor on good to firm 17 days ago; still fairly treated following a 3lb rise but testing ground would be a concern.

11/4

4/1

Form: 34242- CD

Last run: 69 days

W: 9st 9lb

9 yo Gelding

OR: 75

Form & Verdict
Down in the weights before winning back to back last summer; held form quite well after, going down narrowly in sprint series final last time; Jack Gilligan steered him to success the last time he climbed aboard; sound claims back from short break.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

5th

3

(2)

29th Aug 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 12y

Class 4

17:30 Windsor

Tyger Bay

9st 9lb

J: Jack Gilligan

T: Conrad Allen

Likes soft ground, on which he was a close second (clear of rest) at Lingfield in June and that was after a break of 72 days; a wet day would make him interesting.

12/1

2nd

2

(8)

6th Jun 2026

Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

20:10 Lingfield

Tyger Bay

9st 9lb

J: Jack Gilligan

T: Conrad Allen

Far from solid on 2026 AW form, notwithstanding a March win, and rarely seen on turf in the last two years; others preferred.

10/1

+o+e Accumulators

Payout
Exacta £9.60
Straight Forecast £8.39
Trifecta £27.80

Selections

NEWMARKET:

Tyger Bay

Telegraph:

Combustion

RP RATINGS:

Em Four

SPOTLIGHT:

Jesse Luc

TOPSPEED:

Em Four

The Times:

Em Four

D Express:

Combustion

The Star:

Combustion

Daily Record:

Combustion

POSTDATA:

Jesse Luc

The Guardian:

Tyger Bay

Daily Mail:

Tyger Bay

Daily Mirror:

Tyger Bay

The Sun:

Tyger Bay