February 25 / 20.10 Kempton (AW)

20.10

Standard To Slow

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  • Prize money: £4187.2
  • 0m 6f 0y
  • Class 5
  • 7 runners
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Runners: 7 runners

Type: Flat AW

Surface: Polytrack

Weather: Partly cloudy

5/2 (Won)

  • Win: £2.63
  • Place: £1.60

Form: 123-11 D

Last run: 11 days

W: 9st 7lb

5 yo Colt

OR: 73

Form & Verdict
Won three classifieds (one was a dead-heat) and three handicaps in just over a year; came from last place at the top of the straight to win going away at Lingfield last time; can't dismiss with 7lb rise justified.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

9th

10

(12)

27th Jun 2026

Good

0m 6f 12y

Class 4

18:15 Windsor

Combustion

9st 6lb

J: Joey Haynes

T: Chelsea Banham

Improving type who completed a 6f AW hat-trick at Lingfield this winter; just his second run on turf when last of 17 in 5f Ascot handicap last month, but poorly drawn there and not out of things.

25/1

17th

13

(1)

1st May 2026

Good To Firm

0m 5f 0y

Class 4

16:20 Ascot

Combustion

9st 1lb

J: Joey Haynes

T: Chelsea Banham

His first three starts saw him well beaten over 7f but he has not looked back since dropped to 6f, winning seven times and placed on his other three runs; could only manage second at Chelmsford five weeks ago but the horse to beat him is now rated 17lb higher and that shouldn't be used as evidence he is in the handicapper's grip; more to prove back on turf and at a new trip but few arrive in better form.

8/1

2nd

7

(5)

26th Mar 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

18:00 Chelmsford (AW)

Combustion

9st 6lb

J: Joey Haynes

T: Chelsea Banham

Justified favouritism in Class 5 event at Kempton last time, taking record this year to 3-3 and overall strike-rate over 6f on AW to 7-9; he is 1-1 at Chelmsford; progressive sort who brings excellent stats and commands respect upped further in grade.

5/2

10/1

  • Place: £2.30

Form: 570-16 CD

Last run: 18 days

W: 9st 5lb

5 yo Colt

OR: 71

Form & Verdict
Second win for Tony Carroll came when beating the strong favourite in refitted cheekpieces over C&D last month; couldn't sustain his effort over 7f at Lingfield subsequently but he's not discounted back sprinting here.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

1st

1

(1)

16th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 16y

Class 5

17:00 Chepstow

Serenity Dream

9st 9lb

J: Billy Loughnane

T: Tony Carroll

Won a 6f handicap at Kempton in January and he has run several good races since, notably a narrow defeat back at Kempton two weeks ago; Billy Loughnane retains the ride; as this 5yo showed at Ascot in May, he's a strong contender back on fast turf.

5/2

2nd

5

(8)

2nd Jul 2026

Standard To Slow

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

20:53 Kempton (AW)

Serenity Dream

9st 6lb

J: Billy Loughnane

T: Tony Carroll

C&D winner in January off a 1lb higher mark than today's and he's posted some good efforts since, including when fifth of 18 in a 0-80 at Ascot in May; beaten about 3l when sixth at Goodwood (7f, soft) 25 days ago and now drops in grade.

6/1

6th

9

(6)

7th Jun 2026

Good To Soft

0m 7f 0y

Class 4

17:20 Goodwood

Serenity Dream

8st 6lb

J: Jack Doughty

T: Tony Carroll

Win here last August (6f) came off 2lb lower; several good runs this year, including in a big field at Ascot four weeks ago, but others look stronger for win purposes.

10/1

Form: 236-45 D

Last run: 14 days

W: 9st 4lb

6 yo Gelding

OR: 70

Form & Verdict
All six wins came on AW in 2025; caught the eye both starts this time around (finished behind Em Four latest) and is back on his last winning mark now; trainer red hot; chance may hinge on how well Callum Shepherd, who has done a good job in the past, can settle him.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

6th

5

(11)

6th Jul 2026

Standard

0m 6f 20y

Class 5

19:30 Wolverhampton (AW)

Jesse Luc

9st 7lb

J: Rob Hornby

T: Mike Murphy

All six wins have been at 6f on AW; consistent sort who ran his usual game race when third of eight at Southwell (6f) in April; has had wind surgery since and must be of interest if it sparks any improvement.

13/2

3rd

5

(6)

11th Apr 2026

Standard

0m 6f 16y

Class 5

19:45 Southwell (AW)

Jesse Luc

9st 8lb

J: Rossa Ryan

T: Mike Murphy

Three wins, two seconds and a third to his name from 11 starts over C&D; beaten as favourite (behind Farandaway) here a month ago but is on a workable mark now and one to consider back under Rossa Ryan.

4/1

5th

2

(5)

10th Mar 2026

Standard

0m 6f 16y

Class 5

20:15 Southwell (AW)

Jesse Luc

9st 9lb

J: Callum Shepherd

T: Mike Murphy

Won six times in the first half of 2025, three of them over C&D; close third at Kempton last time and he should go well for a stable who were in fine form in February (6-12).

4/1

Form: 6964-1 D

Last run: 27 days

W: 9st 7lb

5 yo Colt

OR: 73

Form & Verdict
Fourth AW win came in quite a messy race at Lingfield 27 days ago; up 3lb; passed over given underwhelming form at this track.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4th

4

(1)

2nd Jul 2026

Standard To Slow

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

20:53 Kempton (AW)

Invincible Speed

9st 9lb

J: Ray Dawson

T: Mark Loughnane

Four-time AW winner, most recently at Lingfield (6f) in January off the same mark as today's; left the impression he's still in form on soft ground at Salisbury 23 days ago and has place claims back on the AW.

8/1

5th

5

(11)

9th Jun 2026

Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

15:18 Salisbury

Invincible Speed

9st 5lb

J: Billy Loughnane

T: Mark Loughnane

All four wins have been on the AW but he does act on turf; beaten 4l when second of five at Lingfield (6f, good to firm) ten days ago but soft ground would be a slight concern.

8/1

2nd

3

(3)

30th May 2026

Good

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

20:42 Lingfield

Invincible Speed

9st 8lb

J: Jack Dace

T: Mark Loughnane

Consistent gelding who's usually ridden from off the pace; no obvious reason why he won't go well once more, back over an easier 6f, returning from a short break.

5/1

OUR TIP

9/2

Form: -15273 D

Last run: 14 days

W: 9st 7lb

4 yo Colt

OR: 73

Form & Verdict
Overcame some early scrimmaging to score under Conor Whiteley at Chelmsford last month and got close to that level in two of his four runs since; has twice made all and there isn't much pace on paper here.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

8th

5

(1)

4th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

15:50 Newmarket (July)

Em Four

9st 7lb

J: William Carver

T: Jamie Osborne

Two turf wins last summer and three AW wins this year, the latest at Wolverhampton in April; ran well when third of five at Salisbury next time but two lesser runs have followed and he needs to raise his game.

20/1

7th

1

(5)

12th Jun 2026

Good To Soft

0m 5f 10y

Class 4

14:13 Sandown

Em Four

9st 9lb

J: Saffie Osborne

T: Jamie Osborne

Has won over 6f and 5f on the AW since March and he's perfectly capable on turf, though perhaps not on ground easier than good judged on latest run at Chepstow.

10/1

Form: 846-56 CD

Last run: 11 days

W: 9st 1lb

4 yo Colt

OR: 67

Form & Verdict
Dropping back to 5f at Lingfield 11 days ago wouldn't have suited but was no match for Em Four at Chelmsford the time before; opposable.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

7th

10

(2)

4th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

15:50 Newmarket (July)

Distant Rumble

8st 13lb

J: Jason Watson

T: Roger Teal

In good form since returning from a break, winning at Windsor (6f, good to firm) in May before close third at Salisbury (6f, soft); there's still mileage in his mark on his old form and he could be in the shake-up.

10/1

3rd

6

(3)

9th Jun 2026

Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

15:18 Salisbury

Distant Rumble

9st 4lb

J: Oisin Murphy

T: Roger Teal

Unraced on soft; runner-up over this C&D last month before going on better at Windsor on good to firm 17 days ago; still fairly treated following a 3lb rise but testing ground would be a concern.

11/4

1st

1

(11)

23rd May 2026

Good To Firm

0m 6f 12y

Class 6

16:57 Windsor

Distant Rumble

9st 11lb

J: Jack Callan

T: Roger Teal

C&D winner last spring off a 4lb higher mark who finished a clear second on his return to turf nine days ago; 2lb higher now but having Jack Callan (1-11 for the yard) up to take off 3lb won't hurt; one to consider.

6/1

4/1

Form: 34242- CD

Last run: 69 days

W: 9st 9lb

9 yo Gelding

OR: 75

Form & Verdict
Down in the weights before winning back to back last summer; held form quite well after, going down narrowly in sprint series final last time; Jack Gilligan steered him to success the last time he climbed aboard; sound claims back from short break.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

2

(8)

6th Jun 2026

Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

20:10 Lingfield

Tyger Bay

9st 9lb

J: Jack Gilligan

T: Conrad Allen

Far from solid on 2026 AW form, notwithstanding a March win, and rarely seen on turf in the last two years; others preferred.

10/1

9th

5

(8)

26th Mar 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

18:00 Chelmsford (AW)

Tyger Bay

9st 7lb

J: Jack Gilligan

T: Conrad Allen

Retains plenty of ability aged nine and rallied well for neck success over C&D most recently, taking AW record to 11-69; back up the weights but won off this mark in 2022 and 2024; may remain competitive.

13/2

1st

3

(4)

7th Mar 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

19:00 Chelmsford (AW)

Tyger Bay

9st 8lb

J: Jack Gilligan

T: Conrad Allen

Ten-time AW winner who boasts a consistent record over C&D; high enough in the weights but his latest Kempton effort, back from a break, is best overlooked and the return here won't hurt.

8/1

+o+e Accumulators

Payout
Exacta £9.60
Straight Forecast £8.39
Trifecta £27.80

Selections

NEWMARKET:

Tyger Bay

Telegraph:

Combustion

RP RATINGS:

Em Four

SPOTLIGHT:

Jesse Luc

TOPSPEED:

Em Four

The Times:

Em Four

D Express:

Combustion

The Star:

Combustion

Daily Record:

Combustion

POSTDATA:

Jesse Luc

The Guardian:

Tyger Bay

Daily Mail:

Tyger Bay

Daily Mirror:

Tyger Bay

The Sun:

Tyger Bay