August 23 / 15.15 Carlisle

15.15

Good

Fred Says Don’t Fall 80th Birthday Handicap

  • Prize money: £4187.2
  • 0m 5f 182y
  • Class 5
  • 12 runners
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Fred Says Don’t Fall 80th Birthday Handicap

Runners: 12 runners

Type: Flat Turf

Surface: Turf

Weather: Showers

1st
6 (6)
Mersea

8/1 (Won)

  • Win: £7.50
  • Place: £1.90

Form: 93-045 C

Last run: 18 days

W: 9st 7lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 73

Form & Verdict
Dual 5f winner as 2yo but she failed to build on a solid York fourth when only fifth of seven at Doncaster (6f) 18 days ago; she is falling in the weights though and shouldn't be written off for her in-form yard.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

6th

8

(7)

14th Feb 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

16:55 Newcastle (AW)

Mersea

9st 3lb

J: Oliver Stammers

T: Grant Tuer

50-1 winner over C&D off 11lb higher in February last year; back on a good mark but hasn't been in top form recently.

25/1

7th

3

(2)

4th Feb 2026

Standard

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

17:00 Newcastle (AW)

Mersea

9st 8lb

J: Oliver Stammers

T: Grant Tuer

Well short of her best this winter but that is reflected in her mark and she has too much ability to discount now dropping into a 0-60; betting should be revealing.

12/1

11th

8

(10)

20th Jan 2026

Standard

0m 5f 0y

Class 5

16:13 Newcastle (AW)

Mersea

9st 0lb

J: Sean Kirrane

T: Grant Tuer

Backwards since winning at Musselburgh (5f, Class 6, good) in August; kept on from behind to finish fifth of ten at Southwell (5f; 33-1) a fortnight ago; the handicapper continues to give her assistance from a career-low mark.

20/1

2nd
11 (11)
Happier

11/1

  • Place: £1.80

Form: 621227 D

Last run: 26 days

W: 9st 2lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 68

Form & Verdict
A 6f Redcar maiden winner who looked to be on the up in handicaps until coming in last of seven (in first-time cheekpieces) at Thirsk (6f) 26 days ago; she's worth another chance.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

11th

12

(10)

1st Jun 2026

Standard

0m 7f 36y

Class 6

18:00 Wolverhampton (AW)

Happier

9st 4lb

J: Dougie Costello

T: Martin Keighley

Both handicap wins at 5f, on Southwell AW and turf; creditable yard debut at Lingfield (6f) in December but wasn't seen again after a lesser effort that month and, having only her second 7f run, others have less to prove.

33/1

2

(2)

28th Oct 2025

Soft

0m 5f 212y

Class 6

16:10 Catterick

Happier

9st 7lb

J: David Allan

T: Tim Easterby

All three wins have come over 5f including here (good) in August; stays this far and handles soft ground but remains 4lb higher than for that latest success so a bit more is needed; stable also runs Canaria Queen.

11/2

2

(2)

28th Oct 2025

Soft

0m 5f 212y

Class 6

16:10 Catterick

Happier

9st 7lb

J: David Allan

T: Tim Easterby

All three wins have come over 5f including here (good) in August; stays this far and handles soft ground but remains 4lb higher than for that latest success so a bit more is needed; stable also runs Canaria Queen.

11/2

11/4

  • Place: £1.50

Form: 232

Last run: 32 days

W: 9st 7lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 73

Form & Verdict
Harry Angel filly; has gone with some promise when placed on all three runs, second of nine in 6f Ripon novice (form has been franked) 32 days ago; looks to start life in handicaps on a handy mark so rates a player.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

8th

2

(5)

2nd Nov 2023

Standard To Slow

0m 7f 0y

Class 5

18:30 Chelmsford (AW)

Elusive Angel

9st 12lb

J: Hayley Turner

T: Harry Eustace

took keen hold, led narrowly

12/1

7th

1

(6)

20th Sep 2023

Good To Soft

0m 6f 3y

Class 5

14:05 Yarmouth

Elusive Angel

10st 0lb

J: Hayley Turner

T: Harry Eustace

Placed in all four starts (6f), including on soft; wasn't far away at Carlisle on handicap debut latest and 1lb drop won't do her cause any harm; player.

2/1

3rd

5

(9)

23rd Aug 2023

Good

0m 5f 182y

Class 5

15:15 Carlisle

Elusive Angel

9st 7lb

J: Ben Curtis

T: Harry Eustace

reluctant to load, midfield, headway 2f out, kept on and went third final 110yds

11/4

Form: 4-1943

Last run: 10 days

W: 9st 9lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 75

Form & Verdict
Resumed with 7f Wolverhampton success in June and she posted another solid effort when third in 6f Leicester handicap ten days ago; blinkers replace cheekpieces now and she's shortlisted.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

6th

2

(6)

10th Oct 2023

Good To Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 5

15:22 Leicester

Creative Style

9st 8lb

J: Hollie Doyle

T: Archie Watson

pressed leader, outpaced and lost position 2f out, weakened over 1f out

10/1

8th

6

(8)

16th Sep 2023

Standard

0m 7f 1y

Class 5

16:55 Lingfield (AW)

Creative Style

9st 7lb

J: Luke Morris

T: Archie Watson

Returned with 7f Wolverhampton maiden victory and she has held her form well since, solid third of six in 6f Hamilton handicap 11 days ago; possibilities off an unchanged mark.

8/1

OUR TIP

20/1

Form: -24310

Last run: 20 days

W: 9st 11lb

3 yo Gelding

OR: 77

Form & Verdict
Fair ex-French 1m winner in the spring but well held on his sole run for Kevin Ryan in 1m Goodwood handicap 20 days ago; has since changed hands for £25,000 and more is required on his yard debut.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

10th

11

(5)

15th Sep 2025

Good

0m 7f 0y

Class 5

17:20 Thirsk

Naval Academy

8st 13lb

J: Harry Russell

T: Mark Walford

Seen only four times this year, with best run his close second of six in modest race at Carlisle (7f, good to soft) two starts ago; sports refitted tongue-tie/cheekpieces; others have more pressing claims.

14/1

6

(9)

31st Jul 2025

Good

1m 0f 75y

Class 5

16:05 Nottingham

Naval Academy

9st 9lb

J: Dougie Costello

T: Mark Walford

Ran best race this year when second at Carlisle last time (7f, good to soft); could go well, but ideally suited by some give in the ground and perhaps better at 7f.

15/2

2nd

7

(7)

30th May 2025

Good

0m 6f 195y

Class 6

16:50 Carlisle

Naval Academy

9st 2lb

J: Dougie Costello

T: Mark Walford

Now 10lb lower than when winning over Haydock's 7f last July and took a step back in the right direction when fifth at Leicester (7f, good to firm) latest; he has soft-ground form if going back far enough.

6/1

Form: 094550 D

Last run: 25 days

W: 9st 5lb

3 yo Gelding

OR: 71

Form & Verdict
All his five successes have come on the AW and he came in well held in 7f York handicap 25 days ago when tried again in a hood; others are more persuasive.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

10th

10

(3)

26th Apr 2024

Soft

0m 7f 6y

Class 6

13:23 Doncaster

Pocket The Packet

9st 3lb

J: Rowan Scott

T: Nigel Tinkler

Yet to score for his current yard and well below par in 6f handicaps at Newcastle and Thirsk this spring; others appeal more.

20/1

10th

10

(3)

26th Apr 2024

Soft

0m 7f 6y

Class 6

13:23 Doncaster

Pocket The Packet

9st 3lb

J: Rowan Scott

T: Nigel Tinkler

Yet to score for his current yard and well below par in 6f handicaps at Newcastle and Thirsk this spring; others appeal more.

20/1

8th

5

(10)

9th Apr 2024

Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

15:45 Thirsk

Pocket The Packet

9st 6lb

J: Faye McManoman

T: Nigel Tinkler

Generally struggled for this yard last year but he's become more realistically treated again now; last month's Newcastle reappearance should have blown away any cobwebs but he has done his winning on AW and has something to prove on slow turf.

20/1

11/1

Form: 112199 CD

Last run: 25 days

W: 9st 2lb

3 yo Gelding

OR: 68

Form & Verdict
Is enjoying an excellent season (already a four-time winner, including over C&D) and he wasn't seen to best effect when ninth of 16 at York (7f) 25 days ago; he's the sort to bounce back so needs considering.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

8

(8)

15th Sep 2025

Good

0m 6f 0y

Class 6

15:50 Thirsk

B Associates

9st 9lb

J: Jason Hart

T: James Owen

Two wins in 7f classified events last month; runner-up in his last two completed starts; unseated rider early at Chester on Friday; each-way shout but hardly an unknown quantity.

8/1

10

(7)

12th Sep 2025

Good

0m 6f 17y

Class 5

16:55 Chester

B Associates

9st 5lb

J: Mason Paetel

T: James Owen

Fourth, nearest at the finish, to Hallowed Time in this last year; back with James Owen again and arrives in the midst of a productive spell, recent second-place finishes (visored) to add to earlier wins at Yarmouth and Brighton (7f); can often miss the break though, which isn't ideal at Chester.

5/1

2nd

3

(8)

8th Sep 2025

Standard

0m 7f 1y

Class 6

15:58 Lingfield (AW)

B Associates

9st 8lb

J: Ashley Lewis

T: James Owen

Nine of his ten wins have been on turf and he came from off the pace when good second off this mark at Brighton (6f; first-time visor) last month; has claims if he can repeat that form but he's 1-12 on AW and that success was in a claimer.

7/2

Form: 230-66 D

Last run: 18 days

W: 9st 11lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 77

Form & Verdict
Dual 5f/6f winner in 2022 but had wind op and been off for three months before beating only one in a 6f Doncaster handicap 18 days ago; she needs to take a big step forward.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

8th

1

(5)

23rd Aug 2023

Good

0m 5f 182y

Class 5

15:15 Carlisle

Signora Camacho

9st 11lb

J: Gianluca Sanna

T: John Quinn

held up in rear

10/1

6th

3

(2)

5th Aug 2023

Soft

0m 6f 2y

Class 3

15:55 Doncaster

Signora Camacho

9st 4lb

J: Gianluca Sanna

T: John Quinn

prominent, dropped to rear 2f out, struggling when eased final 110yds

7/1

6th

3

(6)

29th Apr 2023

Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

17:50 Ripon

Signora Camacho

9st 6lb

J: James Sullivan

T: John Quinn

Bolted up in an Ayr nursery last July (6f, good); made heavy weather of following up at Chelmsford one week later (5f) when the drop in trip didn't suit; good runs at York and Naas in September but off since a modest effort in the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy last October; back in calmer waters and she looks the type her trainer will coax more out of this year.

7/1

Form: -77737

Last run: 11 days

W: 9st 0lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 66

Form & Verdict
Still to get his head in front and he's been largely below par this season, only seventh of nine at Haydock (7f) 11 days ago; cheekpieces replace the visor now with something to prove.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

5th

14

(16)

24th Apr 2026

Good To Firm

0m 7f 6y

Class 6

14:15 Doncaster

Reginald Charles

9st 6lb

J: P J McDonald

T: Geoff Oldroyd

0-16 on turf but he went mighty close at Redcar (good) in October; narrow winner at Southwell (also 7f, AW) on next start in December and it was a good effort when third to Wrydcroft over latter C&D last time; that did come after another two-month break but he's a player if backing it up 17 days on.

8/1

3rd

6

(7)

7th Apr 2026

Standard

0m 7f 14y

Class 6

20:30 Southwell (AW)

Reginald Charles

9st 7lb

J: P J McDonald

T: Geoff Oldroyd

Record on the AW last year read 1161 including two wins over C&D; not at his best when behind two of these back here in February, but more than capable of making an impact if bouncing back.

4/1

6th

5

(1)

5th Feb 2026

Standard

0m 7f 14y

Class 6

19:30 Southwell (AW)

Reginald Charles

9st 7lb

J: P J McDonald

T: Geoff Oldroyd

Back from nearly two months off with a second C&D success in 14-runner handicap in December, getting up late on; up 3lb but very much one to consider after another break.

5/1

7/1

Form: 9-5479 D

Last run: 14 days

W: 9st 9lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 75

Form & Verdict
Two-time 6f juvenile scorer; had breathing surgery before coming in last of nine in 6f Pontefract handicap a fortnight ago but didn't enjoy the best of runs there so shouldn't be written off.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

13th

8

(10)

10th Jun 2024

Good To Firm

1m 1f 0y

Class 5

16:55 Carlisle

Hougoumont

9st 3lb

J: Dougie Costello

T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood

Won twice in novice company as a 2yo; record of 0-10 in handicaps but he's dropped down the weights and didn't get much luck when fourth at Beverley (7.4f, soft) on recent stable debut; looks worth a try at this new trip and he's not ruled out with cheekpieces added.

10/1

4th

9

(4)

29th May 2024

Good

0m 7f 96y

Class 5

14:10 Beverley

Hougoumont

8st 11lb

J: Cam Hardie

T: Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood

Won twice in novice company as a 2yo; yet to win a handicap but he ran well at Chelmsford on Good Friday (7f, AW); less good at Musselburgh one month later; has since left Julie Camacho.

14/1

14

(11)

21st Apr 2024

Good

1m 0f 2y

Class 5

16:45 Musselburgh

Hougoumont

9st 4lb

J: Ryan Sexton

T: Julie Camacho

0-8 in handicaps but has come down the weights and ran promisingly at Chelmsford (7f, AW) most recently, while shaping as if he's ready for a crack at this new trip; one to consider.

15/2

Form: 615130 D

Last run: 75 days

W: 9st 2lb

3 yo Gelding

OR: 68

Form & Verdict
A two-time 6f winner earlier this term but he beat only one in 6f Thirsk handicap in June; he needs to bounce back after a break.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

8

(7)

29th Sep 2025

Good

0m 6f 210y

Class 6

17:05 Brighton

Werenotreallyhere

8st 11lb

J: Edward Greatrex

T: Daniel Steele

Dead-heated over 1m here last year off this mark but a rollercoaster ride for his backers in the meantime; another fair effort when 2l away on the AW three weeks ago but he's never the percentage call.

16/1

5th

6

(6)

8th Sep 2025

Standard

1m 0f 1y

Class 6

17:29 Lingfield (AW)

Werenotreallyhere

8st 10lb

J: Luke Morris

T: Daniel Steele

Only 1lb higher than when dead-heating at Brighton (1m, good) in May but he's been up and down since and was last of nine at Brighton last Monday; comes with risks attached and he's not the percentage call; cheekpieces removed.

12/1

6

(6)

1st Sep 2025

Good To Firm

0m 7f 216y

Class 6

16:52 Brighton

Werenotreallyhere

9st 5lb

J: Paddy Bradley

T: Daniel Steele

Lost second to Headshot in closing stages of 1m2f classified race won by Celebrating Ethel here (good) last month but that was still a good effort and today's shorter trip probably suits him better; now only 1lb higher than when dead-heating over C&D in May and might be boosted by refitted cheekpieces.

13/2

Form: 0-2384 D

Last run: 33 days

W: 9st 6lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 72

Form & Verdict
Fair 6f winner but he comes here on the back of below-par efforts in 6f handicaps at Hamilton and Haydock; others appeal more.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

12th

7

(7)

20th May 2026

Standard To Slow

1m 0f 0y

Class 5

19:30 Kempton (AW)

Hour By Hour

9st 6lb

J: Pat Cosgrave

T: Adam Kirby

All of his four wins have been at 6f on turf and last three were in 2024; well handicapped on old form but he was out of sorts in the autumn and has something to prove back up in trip for new yard (changed hands for 1,500gns).

25/1

8th

8

(4)

9th Oct 2025

Heavy

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

15:25 Ayr

Hour By Hour

9st 1lb

J: Mohammed Tabti

T: Iain Jardine

Three 6f wins last autumn, two of them on heavy ground; lightly raced this year but unable to threaten on soft going on his two outings last month and he needs to raise his game.

14/1

6

(7)

30th Sep 2025

Soft

0m 6f 0y

Class 4

16:30 Ayr

Hour By Hour

9st 9lb

J: Mohammed Tabti

T: Iain Jardine

Mudlark; won three times over 6f last year on going ranging from good to soft to heavy; not quite as his best in three runs this season (bled from the nose last time) but could bounce back with a hood tried (can race keenly).

14/1

+o+e Accumulators

Payout
Exacta £41.50
Straight Forecast £32.29
Tricast £92.24
Trifecta £141.80

Selections

SPOTLIGHT:

Elusive Angel

The Times:

Creative Style

TOPSPEED:

Happier

The Star:

Hougoumont

POSTDATA:

B Associates

D Express:

Mersea

RP RATINGS:

Elusive Angel

NEWMARKET:

Elusive Angel

Telegraph:

Elusive Angel

Daily Mail:

Elusive Angel

The Sun:

Elusive Angel

Daily Record:

Elusive Angel

The Guardian:

Creative Style

Daily Mirror:

Creative Style