October 25 / 17.11 Newbury

17.11

Heavy

Renegade Brewery Fillies’ Handicap

  • Prize money: £7327.6
  • 1m 2f 0y
  • Class 4
  • 11 runners
SKY
View Course
Renegade Brewery Fillies’ Handicap

Runners: 11 runners

Type: Flat Turf

Surface: Turf

Weather: Showers

10/1 (Won)

  • Win: £8.20
  • Place: £2.70

Form: 012236 D

Last run: 34 days

W: 9st 10lb

4 yo Filly

OR: 81

Form & Verdict
Acts on soft; record is 5-14, the most recent win at Sandown (1m2f) in July; remained in form until below par last time perhaps feeling the effects of a busy spell; may rebound.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

5th

3

(9)

9th Nov 2024

Soft

1m 2f 43y

Class 1

15:10 Doncaster

Ciara Pearl

9st 4lb

J: Saffie Osborne

T: Daniel & Claire Kubler

Has developed into a useful filly, taking her record to 6-15 with a 1m2f Newbury handicap win on heavy 15 days ago; probably more a place than win contender here, though.

18/1

5th

3

(9)

9th Nov 2024

Soft

1m 2f 43y

Class 1

15:10 Doncaster

Ciara Pearl

9st 4lb

J: Saffie Osborne

T: Daniel & Claire Kubler

Has developed into a useful filly, taking her record to 6-15 with a 1m2f Newbury handicap win on heavy 15 days ago; probably more a place than win contender here, though.

18/1

1st

4

(3)

25th Oct 2024

Heavy

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

17:11 Newbury

Ciara Pearl

9st 10lb

J: Saffie Osborne

T: Daniel & Claire Kubler

Acts on soft; record is 5-14, the most recent win at Sandown (1m2f) in July; remained in form until below par last time perhaps feeling the effects of a busy spell; may rebound.

10/1

14/1

  • Place: £2.10

Form: 613528 D

Last run: 20 days

W: 9st 5lb

5 yo Filly

OR: 76

Form & Verdict
Won at Epsom in July and close second there on penultimate start; has never defied a mark this high but is proven in the mud, having scored on heavy at Newmarket last autumn.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

3rd

1

(5)

6th Nov 2024

Soft

1m 2f 50y

Class 4

14:43 Nottingham

Big Bear Hug

9st 12lb

J: Robert Havlin

T: Adam West

10lb above her last winning mark, that due to a 4lb rise for finishing a clear second at Newbury (1m2f, heavy); looks a good bet to give her running once more but others might be better in.

6/1

3rd

1

(5)

6th Nov 2024

Soft

1m 2f 50y

Class 4

14:43 Nottingham

Big Bear Hug

9st 12lb

J: Robert Havlin

T: Adam West

10lb above her last winning mark, that due to a 4lb rise for finishing a clear second at Newbury (1m2f, heavy); looks a good bet to give her running once more but others might be better in.

6/1

2nd

8

(2)

25th Oct 2024

Heavy

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

17:11 Newbury

Big Bear Hug

9st 5lb

J: Jason Watson

T: Adam West

Won at Epsom in July and close second there on penultimate start; has never defied a mark this high but is proven in the mud, having scored on heavy at Newmarket last autumn.

14/1

3rd
7 (11)
Lady La Fay

13/2

  • Place: £1.80

Form: 34241

Last run: 27 days

W: 9st 9lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 84

Form & Verdict
Registered an 8l success in Ripon novice event (1m4f, soft) last month, opening her account at the fifth attempt; may be capable of further progress on slow ground; respected handicap debutante.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

3rd

7

(11)

25th Oct 2024

Heavy

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

17:11 Newbury

Lady La Fay

9st 9lb

J: Sam James

T: K R Burke

Registered an 8l success in Ripon novice event (1m4f, soft) last month, opening her account at the fifth attempt; may be capable of further progress on slow ground; respected handicap debutante.

13/2

1st

6

(4)

28th Sep 2024

Heavy

1m 4f 10y

Class 5

17:15 Ripon

Lady La Fay

8st 13lb

J: Sam James

T: K R Burke

made all, clear with one other 4f out, went clear and going best 3f out, pushed along and went further clear over 1f out, eased final 110yds, canter

5/2

Form: -41563

Last run: 34 days

W: 9st 1lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 76

Form & Verdict
Record is 1-8; ran well in first-time hood at this course (1m, heavy) most recently; headgear now removed and the new trip presents a question mark judged on breeding.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

12th

7

(6)

9th Dec 2024

Standard

1m 1f 104y

Class 5

18:45 Wolverhampton (AW)

Dramatic Effect

9st 5lb

J: Charles Bishop

T: Eve Johnson Houghton

Won Goodwood novice (1m, good) in June but has mixed record back in handicaps since and she's been well held in last two runs (1m2f/1m3f); mark continues to fall and this drop back in trip could help but others are more persuasive.

12/1

12th

7

(6)

9th Dec 2024

Standard

1m 1f 104y

Class 5

18:45 Wolverhampton (AW)

Dramatic Effect

9st 5lb

J: Charles Bishop

T: Eve Johnson Houghton

Won Goodwood novice (1m, good) in June but has mixed record back in handicaps since and she's been well held in last two runs (1m2f/1m3f); mark continues to fall and this drop back in trip could help but others are more persuasive.

12/1

5th

7

(4)

20th Nov 2024

Standard To Slow

1m 2f 219y

Class 4

20:00 Kempton (AW)

Dramatic Effect

9st 0lb

J: Charles Bishop

T: Eve Johnson Houghton

Had nothing left to give at the end when stepped up to 1m2f at Newbury last time and she may again be hard to settle over a furlong further here unless the return of a hood helps; AW debut.

14/1

Form: 8-721

Last run: 44 days

W: 9st 1lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 76

Form & Verdict
Successful in weak novice race at Lingfield (1m, AW) last month, opening her account at the fourth attempt; this is harder but she's still an unexposed sort; worth another crack at 1m2f.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

11th

3

(14)

20th Nov 2024

Standard To Slow

1m 0f 0y

Class 5

16:30 Kempton (AW)

Hello Miss Lady

9st 11lb

J: Joe Leavy

T: Dylan Cunha

Good second here (7f) before always in control when justifying long odds-on favouritism at Lingfield (1m); 1m2f on heavy ground might have been too big an ask on handicap debut last time; widest stall here won't be easy to overcome.

14/1

OUR TIP

Form: 31220 D

Last run: 63 days

W: 9st 12lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 87

Form & Verdict
Something seemed amiss at the York Ebor festival two months ago; steadily progressive otherwise and went close at Glorious Goodwood (1m2f, good to firm; handicap debut) the time before; not written off.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4th

6

(3)

11th Dec 2024

Standard To Slow

1m 3f 219y

Class 1

19:10 Kempton (AW)

Power Of Destiny

8st 13lb

J: Rossa Ryan

T: Ralph Beckett

in touch with leaders, weakened over 1f out

4/1

4th

6

(3)

11th Dec 2024

Standard To Slow

1m 3f 219y

Class 1

19:10 Kempton (AW)

Power Of Destiny

8st 13lb

J: Rossa Ryan

T: Ralph Beckett

in touch with leaders, weakened over 1f out

4/1

1st

1

(7)

20th Nov 2024

Standard To Slow

1m 2f 219y

Class 4

20:00 Kempton (AW)

Power Of Destiny

9st 11lb

J: Richard Kingscote

T: Ralph Beckett

Improver for Sir Michael Stoute to begin with but finished very weakly at York in August and Newbury in October (finished behind Dramatic Effect); interesting to see what the market makes of her starting out for Ralph Beckett (who also runs Silent Glance); makes AW debut with dam having won on it.

9/2

10/1

Form: 326198 BF

Last run: 34 days

W: 9st 11lb

3 yo Filly

OR: 86

Form & Verdict
Has one stand-out performance since handicapping, namely Lingfield win (1m1f) in August; disappointing favourite last time; fairly useful on her day but isn't particularly solid.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

7th

3

(10)

25th Oct 2024

Heavy

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

17:11 Newbury

Shemozzle

9st 11lb

J: Hector Crouch

T: Ralph Beckett

Has one stand-out performance since handicapping, namely Lingfield win (1m1f) in August; disappointing favourite last time; fairly useful on her day but isn't particularly solid.

10/1

8th

3

(13)

21st Sep 2024

Good

1m 0f 0y

Class 4

14:10 Newmarket

Shemozzle

9st 12lb

J: Hector Crouch

T: Ralph Beckett

raced centre

7/1

9th

14

(12)

23rd Aug 2024

Good To Firm

1m 2f 56y

Class 2

16:10 York

Shemozzle

8st 5lb

J: Edward Greatrex

T: Ralph Beckett

Easily made all at Lingfield (1m1f, good to firm) last Tuesday on her second handicap start; she enjoyed the run of the race and is unlikely to enjoy the same luxury in this more competitive contest, but she's unexposed and could be well treated under a 6lb penalty.

10/1

13/2

Form: -55116 D BF

Last run: 50 days

W: 9st 10lb

4 yo Filly

OR: 81

Form & Verdict
Two from two in a hood, the wins over 1m2f on good ground in May/July; beaten favourite last time but the race didn't pan out favourably; interesting with the headgear reapplied.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

5

(8)

4th Dec 2024

Standard

1m 2f 0y

Class 2

13:20 Lingfield (AW)

Elladonna

9st 6lb

J: Joe Leavy

T: James Fanshawe

took keen hold, in touch with leaders, led on outer and going easily 2f out, soon pestered, headed but went clear with winner final 110yds, no extra towards finish

9/2

2nd

5

(8)

4th Dec 2024

Standard

1m 2f 0y

Class 2

13:20 Lingfield (AW)

Elladonna

9st 6lb

J: Joe Leavy

T: James Fanshawe

took keen hold, in touch with leaders, led on outer and going easily 2f out, soon pestered, headed but went clear with winner final 110yds, no extra towards finish

9/2

3rd

1

(8)

19th Nov 2024

Standard

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

13:10 Lingfield (AW)

Elladonna

10st 0lb

J: Joe Leavy

T: James Fanshawe

Successful at Nottingham (1m2f, good) in May and Salisbury (1m2f, good) in July when wearing a hood; always behind when eighth of ten at Newbury (1m2f, heavy) last month with hood back on; headgear removed back on AW for the first time since April and 2lb higher than her last winning mark; market watch advised.

13/2

3/1

Form: -12001 D

Last run: 16 days

W: 9st 12lb

4 yo Filly

OR: 83

Form & Verdict
Made all for a comfortable success off 7lb lower at Nottingham (1m2f) this month, taking her form figures in heavy-ground handicaps to 121; big player granted similar conditions.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

9th

1

(4)

25th Oct 2024

Heavy

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

17:11 Newbury

Wintercrack

9st 12lb

J: Shane Kelly

T: Pam Sly

Made all for a comfortable success off 7lb lower at Nottingham (1m2f) this month, taking her form figures in heavy-ground handicaps to 121; big player granted similar conditions.

3/1

1st

4

(7)

9th Oct 2024

Soft

1m 2f 50y

Class 4

16:50 Nottingham

Wintercrack

9st 10lb

J: Shane Kelly

T: Pam Sly

Well suited by soft/heavy and her Pontefract win in April (1m) was after a break, so a three-month absence is of no concern; stays this far and is not dismissed.

16/1

10th

8

(10)

12th Jul 2024

Good To Soft

1m 2f 56y

Class 4

15:50 York

Wintercrack

9st 9lb

J: Shane Kelly

T: Pam Sly

led, headed 3f out, hung left and lost position 2f out, kept on but no impression inside final furlong

25/1

Form: 121683 D

Last run: 22 days

W: 9st 10lb

4 yo Filly

OR: 81

Form & Verdict
Record of 2221213 in 1m2f handicaps this term, the wins on fast ground in the summer; respectable third, clear of remainder, on heavy going at Salisbury most recently; solid.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

10th

6

(5)

25th Oct 2024

Heavy

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

17:11 Newbury

Expert Witness

9st 10lb

J: David Probert

T: Sir Mark Todd

Record of 2221213 in 1m2f handicaps this term, the wins on fast ground in the summer; respectable third, clear of remainder, on heavy going at Salisbury most recently; solid.

10/1

3rd

4

(6)

3rd Oct 2024

Heavy

1m 1f 201y

Class 4

16:20 Salisbury

Expert Witness

9st 11lb

J: David Probert

T: Sir Mark Todd

Has progressed well this season, winning twice over 1m2f on good to firm, but suffered a heavy defeat when 25-1 four weeks ago (first AW race this term); acts on good to soft, runner-up sole start on soft.

12/1

8th

2

(1)

5th Sep 2024

Standard

1m 4f 0y

Class 4

16:32 Lingfield (AW)

Expert Witness

10st 1lb

J: Mia Nicholls

T: Sir Mark Todd

held up in rear

6/1

Form: 12115- D

Last run: 482 days

W: 9st 4lb

4 yo Filly

OR: 75

Form & Verdict
Four-time Flat scorer in France and hurdles winner for current yard; absent since Listed third here last December; market helpful on return to this code.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

3rd

3

27th Nov 2024

Good To Soft

2m 0f 53y

Class 5

15:10 Hereford

Saisissante

11st 13lb

J: James Davies

T: Noel Williams

prominent

11/2

3rd

3

27th Nov 2024

Good To Soft

2m 0f 53y

Class 5

15:10 Hereford

Saisissante

11st 13lb

J: James Davies

T: Noel Williams

prominent

11/2

9

(1)

25th Oct 2024

Heavy

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

17:11 Newbury

Saisissante

9st 4lb

J: Millie Wonnacott

T: Noel Williams

Four-time Flat scorer in France and hurdles winner for current yard; absent since Listed third here last December; market helpful on return to this code.

20/1

+o+e Accumulators

Payout
Exacta £46.40
Straight Forecast £53.75
Tricast £182.85
Trifecta £291.40

Selections

RP RATINGS:

Wintercrack

SPOTLIGHT:

Lady La Fay

NEWMARKET:

Elladonna

TOPSPEED:

Power Of Destiny

LAMBOURN:

Ciara Pearl

POSTDATA:

Expert Witness

D Express:

Power Of Destiny

The Star:

Lady La Fay

Daily Record:

Lady La Fay

The Times:

Elladonna

Daily Mail:

Elladonna

Telegraph:

Wintercrack

The Guardian:

Wintercrack

Daily Mirror:

Wintercrack

The Sun:

Wintercrack