February 21 / 14.10 Warwick

14.10

Soft

EBF “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle (Qualifier) (GBB Race)

  • Prize money: £3812.2
  • 2m 3f 0y
  • Class 4
  • 8 runners
RTV
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EBF “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle (Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Runners: 8 runners

Type: Hurdle Turf

Surface: Turf

Weather: Showers

OUR TIP

11/4 (Won)

  • Win: £3.25
  • Place: £1.10

Form: -58313 D

Last run: 37 days

W: 11st 8lb

6 yo Gelding

OR: 120

Form & Verdict
Won two good-ground points and a heavy-ground Exeter bumper last spring for Leslie Jefford; also scored at Wincanton (2m4f, good to soft) in December on third start over hurdles and his third of nine at Newbury (3m, soft) on handicap debut marked further improvement on the figures; back down in trip but he is a leading contender on form.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

1st

3

21st Feb 2025

Soft

2m 3f 0y

Class 4

14:10 Warwick

Prophesea

11st 8lb

J: Bryan Carver

T: Chris Down

raced in second, ridden after 3 out, led 2 out, went clear run-in, comfortably

11/4

3rd

1

15th Jan 2025

Heavy

3m 0f 52y

Class 4

16:08 Newbury

Prophesea

12st 0lb

J: Bryan Carver

T: Chris Down

in touch with leaders

7/1

3rd

1

15th Jan 2025

Heavy

3m 0f 52y

Class 4

16:08 Newbury

Prophesea

12st 0lb

J: Bryan Carver

T: Chris Down

in touch with leaders

7/1

3/1

  • Place: £1.10

Form: -5FF51

Last run: 21 days

W: 11st 8lb

6 yo Gelding

OR: 114

Form & Verdict
Running well when he fell late on in his first two runs over hurdles; fifth of 13 at Exeter (2m, soft) next time and he built on that when winning a maiden at Lingfield (2m, heavy) three weeks ago; needs better in this company but he did it easily last time and should stay.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

6th

5

1st Jul 2026

Good

2m 0f 110y

Class 4

14:20 Worcester

Disco Davis

11st 10lb

J: Charlie Price

T: Sarah-Jayne Davies

Ended his time over hurdles for Dan Skelton under something of a cloud; not disgraced on yard/chasing debut with third in 2m4f handicap here but pulled up in 2m7f handicap chase back here 20 days ago; has something to prove now.

14/1

10

11th Jun 2026

Good

2m 7f 0y

Class 3

17:40 Worcester

Disco Davis

10st 5lb

J: Charlie Price

T: Sarah-Jayne Davies

Very inconsistent for Dan Skelton last season but ran well from the front when third here (2m4f, good) on stable debut three weeks ago and won't mind if the ground is much slower today (has won on heavy); unexposed over this sort of trip; a possible if in the right mood again.

14/1

3rd

8

22nd May 2026

Good

2m 4f 0y

Class 4

17:32 Worcester

Disco Davis

11st 2lb

J: Charlie Price

T: Sarah-Jayne Davies

Heavy-ground 2m hurdle winner when with Dan Skelton; changed hands for 1,000gns since being beaten more than 16l in a Stratford seller in March; 2lb lower for chase debut but can only suggest a watching brief at present.

20/1

Form: 1P BF

Last run: 71 days

W: 11st 2lb

6 yo Gelding

OR:

Form & Verdict
Won for Phil Rowley in a point bumper last March (2m, heavy) and Aintree bumper (2m1f, good) in May; 4-5 in maiden hurdle at Warwick (2m5f, good to soft) in December for Nicky Henderson but pulled up; had wind surgery soon afterwards; it will be interesting to see if his backers return and he does indeed looks the Henderson first string but his other two have done little.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

1st

2

16th May 2025

Good

2m 0f 209y

Class 4

17:10 Aintree

Bear Market

11st 2lb

J: James Bowen

T: Nicky Henderson

Won the point-to-point bumper on this card for Philip Rowley last year (good ground) but was pulled up when odds-on for stable/hurdle debut in December and again disappointed when well-held fourth at Warwick (2m3f, soft) in February; not written off just yet but returns here with a point to prove.

7/2

1st

2

16th May 2025

Good

2m 0f 209y

Class 4

17:10 Aintree

Bear Market

11st 2lb

J: James Bowen

T: Nicky Henderson

Won the point-to-point bumper on this card for Philip Rowley last year (good ground) but was pulled up when odds-on for stable/hurdle debut in December and again disappointed when well-held fourth at Warwick (2m3f, soft) in February; not written off just yet but returns here with a point to prove.

7/2

Form: 06

Last run: 27 days

W: 11st 2lb

5 yo Gelding

OR:

Form & Verdict
28-1 and 66-1 when soundly beaten in two 2m maidens at Uttoxeter.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

6th

2

11th May 2026

Good

3m 0f 60y

Class 5

14:42 Southwell

Delgany Deadline

11st 5lb

J: Harry Skelton

T: Dan Skelton

Off the mark at Leicester (2m7f, soft) in February before posting a good second of four in 3m1f handicap at Plumpton (good); the drop back to 2m4f was not ideal there last time; better expected here.

7/2

4th

4

19th Apr 2026

Good

2m 3f 166y

Class 5

14:17 Plumpton

Delgany Deadline

10st 11lb

J: Tristan Durrell

T: Dan Skelton

Low-mileage 6yo who got off the mark at Leicester (2m7f) in February before posting a very good second of four in 3m1f handicap here two weeks ago; drops in trip but on the up so still rates a player for yard firmly among the winners.

13/8

2nd

3

5th Apr 2026

Good

3m 1f 157y

Class 5

14:20 Plumpton

Delgany Deadline

11st 1lb

J: Tristan Durrell

T: Dan Skelton

Has improved for cheekpieces, following his second at Sedgefield (3m2f, good to soft) with a 3l success at Leicester (2m6f, soft) which was despite a mistake two out; probably still fairly treated off 5lb higher.

11/10

Form: 95

Last run: 37 days

W: 11st 2lb

6 yo Gelding

OR:

Form & Verdict
Hinted at some ability in a bumper at Warwick and novice hurdle at Hereford (2m6f, soft; 33-1) but others have much more solid claims.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4

27th Mar 2025

Good

2m 5f 0y

Class 4

14:27 Warwick

Tuscany

11st 0lb

J: James Bowen

T: Warren Greatrex

There have been glimmers of promise in his three races (2m-2m5f) but he needs to raise his game to trouble the best of these.

16/1

6th

9

21st Feb 2025

Soft

2m 3f 0y

Class 4

14:10 Warwick

Tuscany

11st 2lb

J: James Bowen

T: Warren Greatrex

Hinted at some ability in a bumper at Warwick and novice hurdle at Hereford (2m6f, soft; 33-1) but others have much more solid claims.

16/1

5th

8

15th Jan 2025

Soft

2m 5f 163y

Class 4

14:15 Hereford

Tuscany

11st 3lb

J: Brendan Powell

T: Warren Greatrex

Hinted at some ability in a Warwick bumper, trailing the winner by 12l come the line (good to soft; 16-1).

33/1

Form:

Last run:

W: 11st 2lb

5 yo Gelding

OR:

Form & Verdict
Fifth foal; dam unraced half-sister to 1m6f/2m AW winner Teajaybe, out of 1m1f 2yo Listed-winning half-sister to Irish Oaks winner Margarula; fourth in the first two of his three Irish maiden points last May-December; needs to be good to show up well on this rules debut.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4th

1

10th Apr 2025

Good

2m 3f 147y

Class 4

14:00 Hereford

Absolutely Certain

11st 6lb

J: James Best

T: Rob Summers

Irish point form is nothing to crow about and he was 250-1 and 300-1 when beaten 70l in his two hurdle races (2m3f/2m4f).

100/1

4th

1

10th Apr 2025

Good

2m 3f 147y

Class 4

14:00 Hereford

Absolutely Certain

11st 6lb

J: James Best

T: Rob Summers

Irish point form is nothing to crow about and he was 250-1 and 300-1 when beaten 70l in his two hurdle races (2m3f/2m4f).

100/1

8th

1

8th Mar 2025

Good

2m 3f 147y

Class 4

14:35 Hereford

Absolutely Certain

11st 7lb

J: James Best

T: Rob Summers

Point form nothing to crow about and he was 250-1 when tailed off at Warwick (2m3f).

200/1

Form: 2-21

Last run: 47 days

W: 11st 8lb

6 yo Gelding

OR: 115

Form & Verdict
Has shown plenty of ability in the mud on all three starts; last two were over hurdles and he still has something to learn about jumping, but he rallied strongly to win a novice at Chepstow (2m) latest; 7lb claimer takes over and he's done well in hurdle races this term; promising.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

1

3rd Mar 2024

Soft

1m 7f 171y

Class 5

16:45 Huntingdon

Carismatic Soldier

11st 5lb

J: Sean Bowen

T: Olly Murphy

47,000euros 3yo; fourth foal; half-brother to bumper/hurdle winner Fiadh and a US hurdle winner; dam fair 2m hurdle winner; has pretty good standard to reach on debut but stable does very well in bumpers.

5/1

Form: 7P

Last run: 65 days

W: 11st 2lb

6 yo Gelding

OR:

Form & Verdict
Jumping mistakes featured when he was tailed off at Kempton (2m, good to soft; 5-1) and pulled up at Newbury (2m4f, soft; 40-1).
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

3rd

5

15th Apr 2025

Good

3m 0f 60y

Class 5

17:00 Southwell

Marengo Bay

11st 3lb

J: Freddie Gordon

T: Nicky Henderson

Well beaten over 2m on hurdling debut in November and pulled up on both subsequent appearances (2m4f/2m3f); can't be recommended on that evidence but represents a top stable and is very unexposed; upped in trip and fitted with cheekpieces for handicap debut; market may guide.

5/1

3rd

5

15th Apr 2025

Good

3m 0f 60y

Class 5

17:00 Southwell

Marengo Bay

11st 3lb

J: Freddie Gordon

T: Nicky Henderson

in touch with leaders

5/1

8

21st Feb 2025

Soft

2m 3f 0y

Class 4

14:10 Warwick

Marengo Bay

11st 2lb

J: David Bass

T: Nicky Henderson

Jumping mistakes featured when he was tailed off at Kempton (2m, good to soft; 5-1) and pulled up at Newbury (2m4f, soft; 40-1).

33/1

Non-runners

Broxy Music

+o+e Accumulators

Payout
Exacta £9.20
Straight Forecast £9.95
Trifecta £17.70

Selections

SPOTLIGHT:

Carismatic Soldier

TOPSPEED:

Prophesea

LAMBOURN:

Bear Market

Telegraph:

Disco Davis

RP RATINGS:

Carismatic Soldier

Daily Mail:

Carismatic Soldier

D Express:

Carismatic Soldier

Daily Mirror:

Carismatic Soldier

Daily Record:

Carismatic Soldier

POSTDATA:

Prophesea

The Times:

Prophesea

The Guardian:

Prophesea

The Sun:

Prophesea

The Star:

Prophesea