July 28 / 16.05 Ayr

16.05

Good

Outcider Handicap (GBBplus Race)

  • Prize money: £5154
  • 1m 2f 0y
  • Class 4
  • 9 runners
RTV
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Outcider Handicap (GBBplus Race)

Runners: 9 runners

Type: Flat Turf

Surface: Turf

Weather: Light rain

2/1 (Won)

  • Win: £2.00
  • Place: £1.10

Form: 3-33 BF

Last run: 63 days

W: 9st 1lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 79

Form & Verdict
3yo who has finished third on all three starts (7f/1m, good to soft-good to firm); turned over at 1-3 last time but that was still a good run; gelded since; this well-bred handicap newcomer is open to improvement now up in trip and his top trainer is 8-19 (42%) here in the last five seasons.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

9th

1

(8)

29th Aug 2026

Good

1m 1f 209y

Class 2

14:15 Sandown

Crown Of Oaks

10st 2lb

J: Callum Rodriguez

T: William Haggas

Progressive in handicaps last season, winning the Balmoral at Ascot (1m, good) on final start; may still have untapped potential but he ran poorly in Irish Group 3 on reappearance and is now fitted with a tongue-strap.

15/2

7th

1

(2)

28th Jun 2026

Good To Firm

1m 2f 0y

15:20 Curragh

Crown Of Oaks

9st 9lb

J: Tom Marquand

T: William Haggas

British raider; three handicap wins last season at 1m-1m2f on good and soft ground, including the Balmoral at Ascot (1m, good) on his final start of 2025 off 99; ran well when third in C&D handicap last September; a bit to find on the figures here and lacks a recent run but respected.

8/1

4/1

  • Place: £1.20

Form: 2-4744 C

Last run: 24 days

W: 9st 8lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 86

Form & Verdict
Encouraging fourth of nine in 3yo handicap at Epsom (1m2f, good to soft) last month on first run since being gelded and a line can be put through his next run at Doncaster where he was badly hampered; chance.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4

(5)

10th Oct 2025

Good

1m 2f 56y

Class 2

14:40 York

Hornsea Bay

9st 2lb

J: Daniel Tudhope

T: David O’Meara

Debut at Ayr last September remains his only win but three of his last four starts (two over 1m2f at Ayr, one C&D) suggest he is capable of getting seriously involved.

7/2

8

(2)

18th Sep 2025

Good To Soft

1m 2f 0y

Class 2

14:45 Ayr

Hornsea Bay

9st 3lb

J: Daniel Tudhope

T: David O’Meara

Won 2yo debut here (1m, good) last September and clear second behind well-handicapped winner in handicap over this C&D (good) in July; has shown promise on good to soft (unraced on softer); close fifth at York 11 days ago and he could play a leading role now back here.

5/1

10

(10)

7th Sep 2025

Good

1m 2f 56y

Class 3

16:00 York

Hornsea Bay

9st 3lb

J: Kevin Stott

T: David O’Meara

Second to an unexposed Haggas horse at Ayr before racing too freely for his own good when favourite for a Racing League handicap at Chepstow (1m2f, good to soft); if giving himself a better chance here he might not be far away.

15/2

10/1

  • Place: £3.90

Form: 4-8481 CD

Last run: 14 days

W: 8st 2lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 65

Form & Verdict
3yo who showed improved form to get off the mark at ninth attempt over C&D (good) a fortnight ago; in a warmer race today but is just 3lb higher than last time and could still have more to offer.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

1st

3

(2)

7th Aug 2026

Good

1m 5f 0y

Class 5

16:24 Musselburgh

Sure And Stedfast

9st 13lb

J: Greg Fairley

T: Ewan Whillans

In the frame three times at Hamilton this year, beaten under 1l when third of five in tactical race on latest occasion four weeks ago (1m5f, good); can go well again here but others look better handicapped.

10/1

3rd

5

(6)

11th Jul 2026

Good

1m 5f 16y

Class 4

19:20 Hamilton

Sure And Stedfast

8st 13lb

J: Kevin Stott

T: Ewan Whillans

A dual winner (at up to 1m2f) last season; recorded a very good second over C&D in June and didn't enjoy a smooth run when fifth of 12 at Newcastle (1m4f) two weeks ago; remains one to be interested in.

11/2

5th

1

(10)

27th Jun 2026

Standard To Slow

1m 4f 98y

Class 5

16:58 Newcastle (AW)

Sure And Stedfast

9st 9lb

J: P J McDonald

T: Ewan Whillans

Two-time turf winner (1m1f/1m2f) who arrives in good nick after two solid placed efforts at Hamilton (1m3f/1m5f); hasn't shone in two starts here but otherwise he's more solid than most.

4/1

Form: 13-546 CD

Last run: 44 days

W: 10st 3lb

5 yo Colt

OR: 86

Form & Verdict
Hasn't really threatened on his three runs this year but has been in fair form and he won by 4l over C&D (good) last July on his last visit to Ayr; first-time blinkers replace cheekpieces; could go well.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4th

1

(9)

28th Jul 2025

Good

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

16:05 Ayr

Born Ruler

10st 3lb

J: Cam Hardie

T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt

Hasn't really threatened on his three runs this year but has been in fair form and he won by 4l over C&D (good) last July on his last visit to Ayr; first-time blinkers replace cheekpieces; could go well.

5/1

4

(7)

14th Jun 2025

Good To Firm

1m 3f 188y

Class 3

14:25 York

Born Ruler

10st 6lb

J: Miss Gina Andrews

T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt

Consistent last year; hasn't threatened on either outing this season but he kept on for a fair fourth in a warm race at Redcar (1m2f, good to firm) last time and may benefit from this step back up in trip; unraced on slow ground; cheekpieces go back on, which he wore for his last win; chance.

4/1

OUR TIP

Form: -22775 D

Last run: 16 days

W: 10st 2lb

6 yo Colt

OR: 85

Form & Verdict
Runner-up on first two starts this season (1m/1m2f, good) and creditable fifth of 18 in the John Smith's Cup at York (1m2f, good to firm) a fortnight ago; could be in the mix now back down in grade.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4

(4)

3rd Sep 2026

Soft

1m 3f 140y

Class 5

13:30 Haydock

Austrian Theory

11st 1lb

J: Mr Thomas Easterby

T: Tim Easterby

Just one win to his name since June 2023 and he failed to justify favouritism in a similar event at Catterick (1m4f, good) last time, with the reopposing Star Start a place ahead of him second; however, his record in recent years suggests that going softer than good is ideal for him nowadays and this is the first time he's faced such conditions since a respectable reappearance off a much higher mark in the spring; considered.

5/1

3rd

1

(5)

17th Aug 2026

Good To Firm

1m 4f 13y

Class 5

14:15 Catterick

Austrian Theory

11st 2lb

J: Mr Thomas Easterby

T: Tim Easterby

Just one win to his name since June 2023 and he has found it tough going so far in 2026; he has slipped a long way in the weights though and today's drop in class will help; not discounted.

9/2

5th

7

(4)

25th Jul 2026

Standard To Slow

1m 4f 98y

Class 4

14:05 Newcastle (AW)

Austrian Theory

9st 8lb

J: Jake Dickson

T: Tim Easterby

Won once each in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 but has not scored since and this season he's not at all been the force of old; wore cheekpieces on last two outings, with a respectable show on first occasion; the last of his three AW races was in 2024; unpersuasive.

25/1

8/1

Form: 391231 D

Last run: 25 days

W: 9st 6lb

4 yo Filly

OR: 75

Form & Verdict
Three wins at Newcastle (1m2f/1m4f, AW) earlier this year and her good form has continued back on turf, winning at Haydock (11.6f, good) most recently off 4lb lower; this progressive 4yo can go well once more.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

14th

15

(12)

30th Jul 2026

Yielding

1m 4f 0y

17:40 Galway

Jujubella

9st 10lb

J: Ben Coen

T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

UK-trained; three of her four wins in UK have come on AW up to this trip; has dropped in the weights in the last year and solid runs in defeat lately; needs a bit more.

12/1

3rd

2

(4)

11th Jul 2026

Good

1m 3f 15y

Class 5

20:50 Hamilton

Jujubella

9st 13lb

J: Kevin Stott

T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

Scored four times (at up to 1m4f) in 2025; back in good form of late, runner-up in 1m4f handicap at Newcastle two weeks ago; well in the mix nudged up 1lb.

5/2

2nd

6

(12)

27th Jun 2026

Standard To Slow

1m 4f 98y

Class 5

16:58 Newcastle (AW)

Jujubella

9st 6lb

J: Darragh Keenan

T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

Not at the top of her game this season but she's dropped down the weights and took a step back in the right direction when fifth at Hamilton (1m5f, good) three weeks ago; creditable third of four at Hamilton on Thursday; three wins here include one at this trip and she warrants a good look.

7/1

20/1

Form: 411186 CD

Last run: 14 days

W: 8st 13lb

10 yo Gelding

OR: 68

Form & Verdict
Won this in 2020 and third in 2022; this 10yo won three in a row here (1m5f/1m2f) this spring but he hasn't been at the same level on his last two starts; needs to bounce back.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

11th

7

(8)

10th Aug 2026

Good

1m 2f 0y

Class 6

16:45 Ayr

Glasses Up

9st 8lb

J: David Allan

T: R Mike Smith

Veteran who led close home over 1m5f here (good to firm) last month, his 13th success; also suited by this shorter trip, but was effectively 3lb below that last winning mark when only fourth over C&D a week later and his new mark has taken effect; younger rivals look better treated.

12/1

4th

6

(2)

20th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

1m 2f 0y

Class 6

16:30 Ayr

Glasses Up

9st 7lb

J: Clifford Lee

T: R Mike Smith

Veteran who was recording his 12th win at the track when leading close home over 1m5f last week; able to race off a 3lb lower mark today and he has to be of interest from a handicapping perspective.

5/1

1st

6

(3)

13th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

1m 5f 26y

Class 5

17:05 Ayr

Glasses Up

8st 4lb

J: Shay Farmer

T: R Mike Smith

Long in the tooth now and needs to better his recent efforts but was close third off 4lb higher at Hamilton (1m1f, good to firm) in May and is probably better suited by today's trip; can't rule out.

10/1

Form: 446364

Last run: 23 days

W: 8st 11lb

4 yo Gelding

OR: 66

Form & Verdict
Kept on for fair fourth of 15 here (1m, good) in April on second start and he's run well in defeat at Carlisle (both 1m1f, soft) on two of his three handicap starts; soundly beaten over 1m4f on AW in between; today's trip could prove ideal and this unexposed 4yo is in calculations.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

1st

1

(4)

2nd Sep 2026

Soft

1m 0f 68y

Class 6

19:20 Hamilton

Tee Aitch Aye

9st 12lb

J: Jack Nicholls

T: Iain Jardine

1m1f winner on soft ground in September last year; back to form on last two starts, finishing in the places in two races over 1m2f at Ayr (good/good to soft), last time finishing 0.75l second in first-time cheekpieces (retained); shortlisted.

9/4

2nd

5

(7)

10th Aug 2026

Good

1m 2f 0y

Class 6

16:45 Ayr

Tee Aitch Aye

9st 10lb

J: Andrew Mullen

T: Iain Jardine

Slow to find his form this season, but his keeping-on third behind Royal Blaze over C&D (good) last month was a big step back in the right direction and he might be seen to even better effect if there's a stronger pace for him to chase today; sports first-time cheekpieces; interesting.

5/1

3rd

6

(7)

6th Jul 2026

Good

1m 2f 0y

Class 6

15:00 Ayr

Tee Aitch Aye

9st 13lb

J: Andrew Mullen

T: Iain Jardine

Now 6b lower than when coming from off the pace to open account at Hamilton (1m1f, soft) in September but has been out of form this year (four runs) and needs to turn a corner.

16/1

Form: 9316-8

Last run: 14 days

W: 9st 1lb

5 yo Filly

OR: 70

Form & Verdict
Ex-German 5yo who won a seller at Musselburgh (1m1f, good) last October on stable debut; however, down the field next time and it was the same story on her reappearance over this C&D a fortnight ago.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

7

(5)

13th Oct 2025

Good

1m 0f 208y

Class 5

13:52 Musselburgh

Bint Al Karama

10st 6lb

J: Miss Hannah Crawford

T: Iain Jardine

Has posted her most encouraging British performances in C&D sellers, respectable third in latest start; has unconvincing handicap form but may fare better off current mark.

10/1

4

(1)

1st Oct 2025

Good

1m 0f 208y

Class 4

15:30 Musselburgh

Bint Al Karama

9st 3lb

J: Cara Tuke

T: Iain Jardine

Won the equivalent race 12 months ago; however, this is a stronger race and she's found things very tough this season.

25/1

9th

4

(5)

19th Sep 2025

Soft

1m 0f 0y

Class 5

16:45 Ayr

Bint Al Karama

9st 8lb

J: Andrew Mullen

T: Iain Jardine

Won a seller in October but no worthwhile form in five handicaps since then.

25/1

+o+e Accumulators

Payout
Exacta £6.30
Straight Forecast £4.36
Tricast £34.89
Trifecta £51.00

Selections

SPOTLIGHT:

Crown Of Oaks

POSTDATA:

Austrian Theory

The Times:

Hornsea Bay

Daily Mail:

Jujubella

NEWMARKET:

Born Ruler

TOPSPEED:

Glasses Up

RP RATINGS:

Crown Of Oaks

D Express:

Crown Of Oaks

The Star:

Crown Of Oaks

The Guardian:

Hornsea Bay

Daily Record:

Jujubella

Telegraph:

Born Ruler

Daily Mirror:

Austrian Theory

The Sun:

Austrian Theory