July 28 / 16.05 Ayr

16.05

Good

Outcider Handicap (GBBplus Race)

  • Prize money: £5154
  • 1m 2f 0y
  • Class 4
  • 9 runners
RTV
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Outcider Handicap (GBBplus Race)

Runners: 9 runners

Type: Flat Turf

Surface: Turf

Weather: Light rain

2/1 (Won)

  • Win: £2.00
  • Place: £1.10

Form: 3-33 BF

Last run: 63 days

W: 9st 1lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 79

Form & Verdict
3yo who has finished third on all three starts (7f/1m, good to soft-good to firm); turned over at 1-3 last time but that was still a good run; gelded since; this well-bred handicap newcomer is open to improvement now up in trip and his top trainer is 8-19 (42%) here in the last five seasons.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

4

(10)

16th Sep 2026

Good

1m 0f 0y

Class 1

15:30 Sandown

Crown Of Oaks

9st 6lb

J: Cieren Fallon

T: William Haggas

Highly progressive in handicaps last season (good/soft), winning the Balmoral at Ascot (1m) on final start; he's failed to fire in an Irish Group 3 and a 1m2f handicap here on his two outings this term but he's not written off for his top yard.

12/1

9th

1

(8)

29th Aug 2026

Good

1m 1f 209y

Class 2

14:15 Sandown

Crown Of Oaks

10st 2lb

J: Callum Rodriguez

T: William Haggas

Progressive in handicaps last season, winning the Balmoral at Ascot (1m, good) on final start; may still have untapped potential but he ran poorly in Irish Group 3 on reappearance and is now fitted with a tongue-strap.

15/2

4/1

  • Place: £1.20

Form: 2-4744 C

Last run: 24 days

W: 9st 8lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 86

Form & Verdict
Encouraging fourth of nine in 3yo handicap at Epsom (1m2f, good to soft) last month on first run since being gelded and a line can be put through his next run at Doncaster where he was badly hampered; chance.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4

(5)

10th Oct 2025

Good

1m 2f 56y

Class 2

14:40 York

Hornsea Bay

9st 2lb

J: Daniel Tudhope

T: David O’Meara

Debut at Ayr last September remains his only win but three of his last four starts (two over 1m2f at Ayr, one C&D) suggest he is capable of getting seriously involved.

7/2

8

(2)

18th Sep 2025

Good To Soft

1m 2f 0y

Class 2

14:45 Ayr

Hornsea Bay

9st 3lb

J: Daniel Tudhope

T: David O’Meara

Won 2yo debut here (1m, good) last September and clear second behind well-handicapped winner in handicap over this C&D (good) in July; has shown promise on good to soft (unraced on softer); close fifth at York 11 days ago and he could play a leading role now back here.

5/1

10

(10)

7th Sep 2025

Good

1m 2f 56y

Class 3

16:00 York

Hornsea Bay

9st 3lb

J: Kevin Stott

T: David O’Meara

Second to an unexposed Haggas horse at Ayr before racing too freely for his own good when favourite for a Racing League handicap at Chepstow (1m2f, good to soft); if giving himself a better chance here he might not be far away.

15/2

10/1

  • Place: £3.90

Form: 4-8481 CD

Last run: 14 days

W: 8st 2lb

3 yo Colt

OR: 65

Form & Verdict
3yo who showed improved form to get off the mark at ninth attempt over C&D (good) a fortnight ago; in a warmer race today but is just 3lb higher than last time and could still have more to offer.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

9

(1)

19th Oct 2026

Good To Soft

2m 2f 2y

Class 3

15:53 Pontefract

Sure And Stedfast

8st 11lb

J: Greg Fairley

T: Ewan Whillans

Has done all his winning in Class 5, at up to 1m5f on good ground; ran well in 1m6f Class 4 at Redcar most recently; appears to have a stiffer assignment from 3lb out of weights upped further in trip/grade.

14/1

2nd

5

(1)

3rd Oct 2026

Good

1m 5f 218y

Class 4

17:10 Redcar

Sure And Stedfast

9st 8lb

J: Greg Fairley

T: Ewan Whillans

Unraced on firmer than good; off the mark for the season at Musselburgh (1m5f) in August but ran moderately on soft ground (runner-up on it once last November) 12 days ago; worth going beyond 1m5f for first time.

12/1

5th

5

(11)

21st Sep 2026

Soft

1m 4f 15y

Class 5

14:47 Hamilton

Sure And Stedfast

9st 12lb

J: Greg Fairley

T: Ewan Whillans

Off the mark for the season at Musselburgh last time and closely matched with Perseus Way on form here in July (1m5f, good); each-way chance.

9/1

Form: 13-546 CD

Last run: 44 days

W: 10st 3lb

5 yo Colt

OR: 86

Form & Verdict
Hasn't really threatened on his three runs this year but has been in fair form and he won by 4l over C&D (good) last July on his last visit to Ayr; first-time blinkers replace cheekpieces; could go well.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4th

1

(9)

28th Jul 2025

Good

1m 2f 0y

Class 4

16:05 Ayr

Born Ruler

10st 3lb

J: Cam Hardie

T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt

Hasn't really threatened on his three runs this year but has been in fair form and he won by 4l over C&D (good) last July on his last visit to Ayr; first-time blinkers replace cheekpieces; could go well.

5/1

4

(7)

14th Jun 2025

Good To Firm

1m 3f 188y

Class 3

14:25 York

Born Ruler

10st 6lb

J: Miss Gina Andrews

T: Sir Mark Prescott Bt

Consistent last year; hasn't threatened on either outing this season but he kept on for a fair fourth in a warm race at Redcar (1m2f, good to firm) last time and may benefit from this step back up in trip; unraced on slow ground; cheekpieces go back on, which he wore for his last win; chance.

4/1

OUR TIP

Form: -22775 D

Last run: 16 days

W: 10st 2lb

6 yo Colt

OR: 85

Form & Verdict
Runner-up on first two starts this season (1m/1m2f, good) and creditable fifth of 18 in the John Smith's Cup at York (1m2f, good to firm) a fortnight ago; could be in the mix now back down in grade.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

1st

6

(5)

16th Sep 2026

Good

1m 1f 207y

Class 5

14:08 Beverley

Austrian Theory

9st 7lb

J: David Allan

T: Tim Easterby

Winless since 2024 but he arrives in decent nick, fourth of 11 in 11.5f handicap at Haydock 13 days ago; ought to be in the shake-up again eased 1lb.

8/1

4th

4

(4)

3rd Sep 2026

Soft

1m 3f 140y

Class 5

13:30 Haydock

Austrian Theory

11st 1lb

J: Mr Thomas Easterby

T: Tim Easterby

Just one win to his name since June 2023 and he failed to justify favouritism in a similar event at Catterick (1m4f, good) last time, with the reopposing Star Start a place ahead of him second; however, his record in recent years suggests that going softer than good is ideal for him nowadays and this is the first time he's faced such conditions since a respectable reappearance off a much higher mark in the spring; considered.

5/1

3rd

1

(5)

17th Aug 2026

Good To Firm

1m 4f 13y

Class 5

14:15 Catterick

Austrian Theory

11st 2lb

J: Mr Thomas Easterby

T: Tim Easterby

Just one win to his name since June 2023 and he has found it tough going so far in 2026; he has slipped a long way in the weights though and today's drop in class will help; not discounted.

9/2

8/1

Form: 391231 D

Last run: 25 days

W: 9st 6lb

4 yo Filly

OR: 75

Form & Verdict
Three wins at Newcastle (1m2f/1m4f, AW) earlier this year and her good form has continued back on turf, winning at Haydock (11.6f, good) most recently off 4lb lower; this progressive 4yo can go well once more.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

5th

1

(5)

16th Oct 2026

Standard

1m 4f 98y

Class 5

16:08 Newcastle (AW)

Jujubella

10st 1lb

J: David Nolan

T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

Four of her five wins have been at Newcastle, including two weeks ago; a reliable proposition in three C&D starts this summer/autumn.

4/1

1st

6

(2)

1st Oct 2026

Standard

1m 4f 98y

Class 5

17:00 Newcastle (AW)

Jujubella

9st 12lb

J: Oisin Orr

T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

Three of her four wins have been at Newcastle and she bounced back with a clear second behind a resurgent rival over C&D last month; this is a deeper race but she travelled smoothly for a long way last time and is an interesting contender off unchanged mark.

7/2

2nd

3

(2)

5th Sep 2026

Standard

1m 4f 99y

Class 5

16:10 Newcastle (AW)

Jujubella

9st 3lb

J: David Nolan

T: Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore

Three-time course winner who found it too much at Galway last time; previously in good form and remains on a workable mark, so is one to consider back on Tapeta.

5/2

20/1

Form: 411186 CD

Last run: 14 days

W: 8st 13lb

10 yo Gelding

OR: 68

Form & Verdict
Won this in 2020 and third in 2022; this 10yo won three in a row here (1m5f/1m2f) this spring but he hasn't been at the same level on his last two starts; needs to bounce back.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

11th

7

(8)

10th Aug 2026

Good

1m 2f 0y

Class 6

16:45 Ayr

Glasses Up

9st 8lb

J: David Allan

T: R Mike Smith

Veteran who led close home over 1m5f here (good to firm) last month, his 13th success; also suited by this shorter trip, but was effectively 3lb below that last winning mark when only fourth over C&D a week later and his new mark has taken effect; younger rivals look better treated.

12/1

4th

6

(2)

20th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

1m 2f 0y

Class 6

16:30 Ayr

Glasses Up

9st 7lb

J: Clifford Lee

T: R Mike Smith

Veteran who was recording his 12th win at the track when leading close home over 1m5f last week; able to race off a 3lb lower mark today and he has to be of interest from a handicapping perspective.

5/1

1st

6

(3)

13th Jul 2026

Good To Firm

1m 5f 26y

Class 5

17:05 Ayr

Glasses Up

8st 4lb

J: Shay Farmer

T: R Mike Smith

Long in the tooth now and needs to better his recent efforts but was close third off 4lb higher at Hamilton (1m1f, good to firm) in May and is probably better suited by today's trip; can't rule out.

10/1

Form: 446364

Last run: 23 days

W: 8st 11lb

4 yo Gelding

OR: 66

Form & Verdict
Kept on for fair fourth of 15 here (1m, good) in April on second start and he's run well in defeat at Carlisle (both 1m1f, soft) on two of his three handicap starts; soundly beaten over 1m4f on AW in between; today's trip could prove ideal and this unexposed 4yo is in calculations.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

4th

2

(1)

20th Sep 2026

Soft

1m 1f 35y

Class 5

16:30 Hamilton

Tee Aitch Aye

9st 12lb

J: Andrew Mullen

T: Iain Jardine

In-form 5yo whose record at Hamilton features soft-ground wins in this contest last year (off just 2lb lower) and latest start (comfortably in second-time cheekpieces); respected.

4/1

Form: 9316-8

Last run: 14 days

W: 9st 1lb

5 yo Filly

OR: 70

Form & Verdict
Ex-German 5yo who won a seller at Musselburgh (1m1f, good) last October on stable debut; however, down the field next time and it was the same story on her reappearance over this C&D a fortnight ago.
Place /
No / Draw
Date / Going /
Distance / Class
Time + Course Horse + Weight
Jockey / Trainer
Verdict Starting price

2nd

7

(5)

13th Oct 2025

Good

1m 0f 208y

Class 5

13:52 Musselburgh

Bint Al Karama

10st 6lb

J: Miss Hannah Crawford

T: Iain Jardine

Has posted her most encouraging British performances in C&D sellers, respectable third in latest start; has unconvincing handicap form but may fare better off current mark.

10/1

4

(1)

1st Oct 2025

Good

1m 0f 208y

Class 4

15:30 Musselburgh

Bint Al Karama

9st 3lb

J: Cara Tuke

T: Iain Jardine

Won the equivalent race 12 months ago; however, this is a stronger race and she's found things very tough this season.

25/1

9th

4

(5)

19th Sep 2025

Soft

1m 0f 0y

Class 5

16:45 Ayr

Bint Al Karama

9st 8lb

J: Andrew Mullen

T: Iain Jardine

Won a seller in October but no worthwhile form in five handicaps since then.

25/1

+o+e Accumulators

Payout
Exacta £6.30
Straight Forecast £4.36
Tricast £34.89
Trifecta £51.00

Selections

SPOTLIGHT:

Crown Of Oaks

POSTDATA:

Austrian Theory

The Times:

Hornsea Bay

Daily Mail:

Jujubella

NEWMARKET:

Born Ruler

TOPSPEED:

Glasses Up

RP RATINGS:

Crown Of Oaks

D Express:

Crown Of Oaks

The Star:

Crown Of Oaks

The Guardian:

Hornsea Bay

Daily Record:

Jujubella

Telegraph:

Born Ruler

Daily Mirror:

Austrian Theory

The Sun:

Austrian Theory